2015 Likely Warmest on Record, 2011-2015 Warmest Five Year Period: WMO

Extreme Weather Triggered as Climate Change Breaches Symbolic Thresholds

2015 is on track to be the warmest year on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The global average surface temperature in 2015 would likely reach “the symbolic and significant milestone” of 1°C above the pre-industrial era, said WMO.

Also, the last five years (2011-2015) have been the warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events – especially heatwaves – influenced by climate change, according to a WMO five-year analysis.

Bad News for the Planet

“The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history as for a number of reasons,” said WMO Secretary-General. “Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached new highs and in the Northern hemisphere spring 2015 the three-month global average concentration of CO2 crossed the 400 parts per million barrier for the first time. 2015 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with ocean surface temperatures at the highest level since measurements began.  It is probable that the 1°C Celsius threshold will be crossed,” he said. “This is all bad news for the planet.”

Based on data from January to October, the global average surface temperature for 2015 so far was about 0.73 °C above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0°C and approximately 1°C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period, said WMO.

Ocean heat and sea level rise

The oceans have been absorbing more than 90% of the energy that has accumulated in the climate system from human emissions of greenhouse gases, resulting in higher temperatures and sea levels. In the first nine months of 2015, global ocean heat content through both the upper 700 meters and 2000 meters of the oceans reached record high levels. The latest estimates of global sea level indicate that the global average sea level in the first half of 2015 was the highest since satellite observations became available in 1993.

Significant warmth was recorded across large areas of the oceans. The Tropical Pacific was much warmer than average, exceeding 1°C over much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The northeast Pacific, much of the Indian Ocean and areas in the north and south Atlantic were significantly warmer than average. Areas to the south of Greenland and in the far southwest Atlantic were significantly colder than average.

Ocean heat content down to a depth of 700m (top) and 2000m (bottom). Three-month (red), annual (black) and 5-year (blue) averages are shown. Source: NOAA/NCEI

Related Links

• The WMO Bulletin on Greenhouse Gas Concentrations is posted here
• October Temperature Breaks Global Record November 19, 2015
• De Facto 2°C Global Climate Target = 2 Inch Hole in the Head  October 9, 2015

Record Warm June, First Half of 2015

Record-breaking temps. over global land & oceans in June, 1st half of 2015, past 12 months

First half of 2015 was record warm for the globe, while June 2015 was warmest June on record, with global land areas and oceans each breaking previous records, according to The State of the Climate Report issued by NCDC/NOAA.

The following are some of the key highlights from the report:

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–June 2015)

The globally averaged temperature across  land and ocean surfaces (SST) was  0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20^th century average, which was the highest for the 6-month period in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the 2010 record by 0.09°C (0.16°F).

NOTES:
The globally-averaged land and SST temperature for January to June 2010 was 14.2°C  (57.5°F), or 0.68°C (1.22°F) above the 20th century average.
The 20^th century average land surface and SST temperature for January to June period, as quoted in 2014, was of 13.5°C (56.3°F)

The globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.40°C (2.52°F) above the 20^th century average, which was the highest for January–June in 136-year record, surpassing the 2007 record by 0.13°C  (0.23°F).

The globally-averaged SST was 0.65°C  (1.17°F) above the 20^th century average, which was the highest for the 6-month period in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the 2010 record by 0.07°F (0.04°C).

Global highlights: June 2015

The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20^th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.

The average global temperature across land surfaces was 1.26°C (2.27°F) above the 20^th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), the highest June temperature on record, surpassing the 2012 record by 0.06°C (0.11°F).

The global sea surface temperature for June was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record, surpassing the 2014 record by 0.06°C (0.11°F). [This also tied with September 2014 as the highest monthly departure from average for any month for the globally-averaged sea surface temperature. Nine of the ten highest monthly departures from average have occurred since May 2014.]

June 2015 also marks the fourth month this year that has broken its monthly temperature record, along with February, March, and May. The other months of 2015 were not far behind: January was second warmest for its respective month and April was third warmest. These six warm months combined with the previous six months (four of which were also record warm) to make the period July 2014–June 2015 the warmest 12-month period in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set just last month (June 2014–May 2015). 

Rank 1 = Warmest Period of Record: 1880–2015	12-month Period	Anomaly °C	Anomaly °F
1	July 2014–June 2015	0.83	1.49
2	June 2014–May 2015	0.82	1.48
3	May 2014–April 2015	0.81	1.46
4	April 2014–March 2015	0.80	1.44
5	March 2014–February 2015	0.79	1.42
6 (tie)	January–December 2014	0.78	1.40
6 (tie)	February 2014–January 2015	0.78	1.40
8	December 2013–November 2014	0.77	1.39
9	November 2013–October 2014	0.74	1.33
10 (tie*)	October 2013–September 2014	0.73	1.31

*ties with four other 12-month periods.  NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for June 2015, published online July 2015, retrieved on July 22, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506.

Related Links

• 2014 Was Warmest Year on Record July 20, 2015
• Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters – 2014 Update June 19, 2015
• Earth’s Fever Continues: Warmest May on Record June 19, 2015
• January–April Global Temperature Highest Ever Recorded  May 20, 2015
• Warmest Ever: March and Q1, 2015 April 18, 2015
• December–February Warmest on Record March 21, 2015

2014 Was Warmest Year on Record

Climate markers continued to show global warming trend: NOAA

The most critical indicators of Earth’s changing climate continued to reflect warming trends in 2014, with several markers including rising land and ocean temperature, sea levels and greenhouse gases setting new records.

A new report compiled by NOAA’s Center for Weather and Climate at the National Centers for Environmental Information is said to  provide a detailed update on global climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice, and in space, according to a press release.

The report is based on contributions from 413 scientists from 58 countries.

“This report represents data from around the globe, from hundreds of scientists and gives us a picture of what happened in 2014. The variety of indicators shows us how our climate is changing, not just in temperature but from the depths of the oceans to the outer atmosphere,” said the Director for National Centers for Environmental Information.

Key highlights from the report include:

• Greenhouse gases continued to climb: Major greenhouse gas concentrations, including carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, continued to rise during 2014, once again reaching historic high values. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 1.9 ppm in 2014, reaching a global average of 397.2 ppm for the year. This compares with a global average of 354.0 in 1990 when this report was first published just 25 years ago.

• Record temperatures observed near the Earth’s surface: Four independent global datasets showed that 2014 was the warmest year on record. The warmth was widespread across land areas. Europe experienced its warmest year on record, with more than 20 countries exceeding their previous records.  Mexico had its warmest year on record. Eastern North America was the only major region to experience below-average annual temperatures.

• Sea surface temperatures were record high: The globally averaged sea surface temperature was the highest on record. The warmth was particularly notable in the North Pacific Ocean,

• Global upper ocean heat content was record high: Globally, upper ocean heat content reached a record high for the year, reflecting the continuing accumulation of thermal energy in the upper layer of the oceans. Oceans absorb over 90 percent of Earth’s excess heat from greenhouse gas forcing.

• Global sea level was record high: Global average sea level rose to a record high in 2014. This keeps pace with the 3.2 ± 0.4 mm per year trend in sea level growth observed over the past two decades.

• The Arctic continued to warm; sea ice extent remained low: The Arctic experienced its fourth warmest year since records began in the early 20th century. Arctic snow melt occurred 20–30 days earlier than the 1998–2010 average. On the North Slope of Alaska, record high temperatures at 20-meter depth were measured at four of five permafrost observatories. The Arctic minimum sea ice extent reached 1.94 million square miles [5 million km²] on September 17, the sixth lowest since satellite observations began in 1979. The eight lowest minimum sea ice extents during this period have occurred in the last eight years..

Full report is posted at   http://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/state-of-the-climate/state-of-climate-in-2014/

The Land of Rising Heat

Global Disasters/ Significant Events

2012 warmest year on record for continental U.S.

The Lower 48 experienced its warmest year on record in 2012 as the average temperature rose to 12.9°C (55.3°F), some 1.8°C (3.2°F) above the 20^th century average, and 0.6°C (1.0°F) above 1998, the previous warmest year, NOAA reported.

Every state in the contiguous U.S. had an above-average annual temperature for 2012. Nineteen states had a record warm year and an additional 26 states had one of their 10 warmest. Source: NOAA

Other Highlights

• 2012 was the 2nd most extreme year on record for the country, according the U.S. Climate Extremes Index. “The index, which evaluates extremes in temperature and precipitation, as well as landfalling tropical cyclones, was nearly twice the average value and second only to 1998. To date, 2012 has seen 11 disasters that have reached the $1 billion threshold in losses, to include Sandy, Isaac, and tornado outbreaks experienced in the Great Plains, Texas and Southeast/Ohio Valley.”
• The average precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 67.5 cm (26.57 inches), 6.5 cm (2.57 in) below average.
• The 2012 drought plagued 61 percent of the U.S. at its peak in July. “The dry conditions proved ideal for wildfires in the West, charring 9.2 million acres — the third highest on record.”

Annual Extremes: Several locations throughout the United States experienced temperature and precipitation extremes in 2012. Most striking was the number of locations across the country that broke their average annual temperature record. These records were primarily driven by extremely warm maximum day time temperatures or daily highs, especially during the spring and summer months. More than a dozen of these locations also experienced their driest year on record. In those areas, the combination of the extreme warm and dry period resulted in a drought comparable to the drought episodes of the 1950s. Source: NOAA/NCDC

Significant weather and climate events- Preliminary

Significant weather and climate events- preliminary

GLOBAL WARNINGS

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!
• Europe: The First Phase of Collapse Has Started 
• United States: The First Phase of Collapse Has Begun

.

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,158 Days Left 

[January 9, 2013] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,158 Days Left to the most Fateful Day in Human History
• Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...

Separate Records Confirm Warming Trend

And to What End?

WILL THIS MAKE A RAPIDLY COLLAPSING WORLD CHANGE ITS COURSE?

We doubt it!

4 Different Records Confirm Identical Warming Trend

Data acquired January 1, 1880 – December 31, 2010. Click image to enlarge. Download larger image (136 KB, PDF)

NASA GISS Global Temperature Anomalies (base 1951 to 1980)

Data acquired November 1 – 30, 2010 – Source of images: NASA-EO

Data acquired by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), the Japanese Meteorological Agency, and their British equivalent confirm an identical warming trend despite minor discrepancies.

Both NASA and NOAA have declared 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year in their 131-year instrumental record.

Related Links:

• 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record: NOAA
• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record: NOAA

2010 joint warmest and  wettest year on record

Last year tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record for global surface temperature

• The 2010 global land surface temperature were 0.96ºC (1.73º F) above the 20th century average.

• Global ocean surface temperatures in 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest at 0.49ºC (0.88ºF ) above the 20th century average.

• 2010 was also the wettest year on record, compared to global average precipitation.

Highlights from NASA Climate Section:

• September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 11.5 percent per decade, relative to the 1979 to 2000 average. The September 2010 extent was the third lowest in the satellite record.
• As of December 10, 2010, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere were 391 ppm.
• Data from NASA’s Grace satellite show that the land ice sheets in both Anarctica and Greenland are losing mass. The continent of Antarctica (left chart) has been losing more than 100 cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice per year since 2002.
• Sea levels have risen by 53mm since 1993, and by 100 to 200mm since the past century. Sea rise is caused by the thermal expansion of sea water due to climate warming and widespread melting of land ice.

“2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record,” NOAA researchers say.

The following is mirrored from NOAA website:

2010 Global Climate Highlights

Global surface temperature anomalies for 2010. Click image to enlarge.

• Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).*
• The global land surface temperatures for 2010 were tied for the second warmest on record at 1.73 F (0.96 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the land surface temperature is +/- 0.20 F (+/- 0.11 C).
• Global ocean surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.88 F (0.49 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the ocean surface temperature is +/- 0.11 F (+/- 0.06 C).
• In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences global temperature and precipitation patterns — when a moderate-to-strong El Niño transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.
• According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.
• The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively.
• The Arctic sea ice extent had a record long growing season, with the annual maximum occurring at the latest date, March 31, since records began in 1979. Despite the shorter-than-normal melting season, the Arctic still reached its third smallest annual sea ice minimum on record behind 2007 and 2008. The Antarctic sea ice extent reached its eighth smallest annual maximum extent in March, while in September, the Antarctic sea ice rapidly expanded to its third largest extent on record.
• A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) in January and February helped usher in very cold Arctic air to much of the Northern Hemisphere. Record cold and major snowstorms with heavy accumulations occurred across much of eastern North America, Europe and Asia. The February AO index reached -4.266, the largest negative anomaly since records began in 1950.
• From mid-June to mid-August, an unusually strong jet stream shifted northward of western Russia while plunging southward into Pakistan. The jet stream remained locked in place for weeks, bringing an unprecedented two-month heat wave to Russia and contributing to devastating floods in Pakistan at the end of July.

2010 Selected Climate Anomalies and Events Map. Source: NOAA

Top 10 Climate Anomalies in 2010
1.    Russian – European – Asian Heat Waves     (Summer)
2.    2010 as [near] warmest year on record     (calendar year)
3.    Pakistani Flooding     (Late July – August)
4.    El Niño to La Niña Transition     (Mid-to-Late Boreal Spring)
5.    Negative Arctic Oscillation     (Early 2010 )
6.    Brazilian Drought     (Ongoing)
7-tie.     Historically Inactive NE Pacific Hurricane Season     (May 15 – Nov 30)
7-tie.     Historic N. Hemispheric Snow Retreat     (January – June )
9.    Minimum Sea Ice Extent     (mid-September)
10.    China Drought    (First Half of 2010)

Contenders for the Top 10 List

• China Floods     (Early Aug)
• Large Iceberg Breaks off Petermann Glacier    (5-Aug)
• Igor & Julia Simultaneous Category 4 Hurricanes     (15-Sep)
• Super Typhoon Megi     (Oct 12-24 )
• Coral Reef Bleaching     (NH Spring -Summer)
• Cyclone Phet     (Early June)
• Bangladesh Driest Monsoon Season since 1994     (Warm Season)
• Hurricane Celia     (Jun 19-28)
• Summer Snow in Australia     (18-Jan)
• Atlantic Cyclone Xynthia     (27-Feb)
• European Cold Snap & Winter Storm     (Early Jan)
• South American Cold Snap     (July)
• Extreme Winter Weather in Europe**     (Most of December)
• Australian Flooding**     (25-Dec)

** This event occurred after the top ten voting, but may have warranted top ten placement.

Click image to enlarge. (Source: NOAA)

See Also:

State of the Climate Global Hazards

• Global Hazards/Events, December 2010 ( Drought and wildfires, Flooding, severe storms, severe winter weather.)
• Global Hazards/Events, November 2010 (Hurricane Tomas, A rare early season winter storm across the U.S. states of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, Record warm temperatures across western Russia.)
• Global Hazards/Events, October 2010 (Hurricane Tomas, Super Typhoon Megi, Tornado Outbreak in Arizona, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, September 2010 (Typhoon Fanapi hits Taiwan & China, 2 tornadoes in New York City, Tropical Storm Earl in Nove Scotia, wildfire in Colorado, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, August 2010 (Flooding in China & Pakistan, Tropical Storm Dianmu in South Korea, heat wave/drought in Russia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, July 2010 (Typhoon Conson in Philippines/Vietnam, heat wave in U.S. & Canada, monsoonal rains in Pakistan & India, severe flooding in Northern China, heavy rains in Texas & Mexico, heat wave & wildfires in Western Russia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, June 2010 (Hurricane Alex in Mexico/Belize, Winter Tornado in New South Wales, Tornado in Ohio, Flooding in Arkansas, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, May 2010 (Tropical Storm Agatha, Flooding in China and Central Europe, Drought in Hawaii, Tropical Cyclone Laila, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, April 2010 (Tornado kills 10 in Mississippi, heatwave in Northeastern U.S., Nor’wester kills 137 in Eastern India/Bangladesh, heavy rainfall causes mudslides/landslides in Peru and Brazil, volcanic eruption in Iceland, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, March 2010 (Tropical Cyclone Tomas strikes Fiji, drought in Hawaii, Nor’easter hits U.S. East Coast, major sandstorm in China, tropical storm Hubert in Madagascar, record heavy rainfall in northeastern Australia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, February 2010 (Xynthia attacks Western Europe, Mid-Atlantic/Deep South U.S. snows, Nor’easter hits U.S. East Coast, drought in Southern China, avalanches in Afghanistan, record heat in Western Australia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, January 2010 (Northern Asia extreme cold/snowfall, freezing temperatures in Bangladesh/Nepal, flooding in Egypt/Israel/Kenya, cold damages citrus crop in Florida, wintry precipitation cripples southern U.S., etc.)

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Hazards for November 2010, published online December 2010, retrieved on January 10, 2011 from http://www.noaa.gov.

Related Links:

• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

Sure enough humans broke the sound barrier on land, too!

But lacked the intelligence to stay within nature’s ethical boundaries…

Brief History of Mankind

January–October 2010 tied with 1998 as the warmest on record: NOAA

*Indicates a tie (Source: NOAA)

Notes:

• Global Ocean tied with 2003 as the second warmest January–October on record.
• Global Land and Ocean tied with 1998 as the warmest January–October on record. The second warmest such period occurred in 2005.
• Southern Hemisphere Land and Ocean tied with 2002 and 2003 as the second warmest January–October on record.

Global Highlights

• During January–October 2010, the global combined land and ocean surface temperature was 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.1°C (57.4°F) and tied with 1998 as the warmest January–October period on record [since 1880.]
• The global average land surface temperature for the same period was the second warmest on record, behind 2007.
• The global average ocean surface temperature for the period tied with 2003 as the second warmest on record, behind 1998.

October 2010 Selected Climate Anomalies and Events Map

Click images to enlarge (Source: NOAA)

January-October 2010 Global Land and Ocean plot

January-October Global and Hemisphere plots

Precipitation

Precipitation was quite variable on a global scale. The areas with the wettest anomalies during October 2010 included the southwestern coast of Canada, most of Central America, northern South America, northern Scandinavia, parts of the west coast of Africa, much of southern and southeastern Asia, southern Japan, parts of Micronesia and the Philippines, and southeastern Australia. The driest anomalies were present the northwestern coast of Canada, parts of the southern United Statees, northern Mexico, Colombia, eastern Peru, and parts of southern India. (Source: NOAA)

October 2010 Precipitation Anomalies in Millimeters

October 2010 Precipitation Percent Departures

The most current data available at Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Related Links:

• Past Decade Warmest on Record

• China is crumbling one mountainside, a mine, couple of cities, two dozen dams …  at a time
• Death toll from China bridge collapse rises to 37, with 29 others still missing

• Moscow heat breaks 130-year record
• Severe Drought Grips Southern Russia

• World Sizzling in Hottest Year to Date
• U.S. Had 8th Warmest June, Wetter
• U.S. Had 8th Warmest June, Wetter
• Earth: Wounded and Feverish
• Collapse Diary

• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010