US Weather: SW, SE Continue to Boil

Dangerously hot and humid conditions, flooding and severe weather

Unrelenting heat to continue unabated in the SW and south-central Plains and parts of the Southeast: NWS

Excessive heat is forecast to return “with a vengeance through much of next week.” The NWS hazards assessment map indicates excessive heat would return to two regions, covering parts of at least 24 states. Click image to enlarge.

Triple digit temperatures with heat index of about 120 degrees (49ºC) forecast across the South Thursday, with “no end in sight for the blazing temperatures.”

“Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect over a dozen states and high temperatures are expected to spread again across more of the South.” Forecasters said.

Excessive heat is forecast to return “with a vengeance through much of next week” to two regions covering at least 24 states. See above map.

Thursday’s weather hazards include:

• Dangerously hot and humid conditions across the Southeast
• Flooding continues and worsens in some parts of the northern and central Plains
• Severe weather will be a threat in the north-central Plains and the Upper Midwest

High temperatures for today in parts of the country hoping for relief include:

• Texas: Dallas 101, San Antonio 99, Waco 104, Wichita Falls 106
• Oklahoma: Oklahoma City 101, Tulsa 100, Woodward 101
• Kansas: Dodge City 100, Garden City 100, Goodland 94, Hill City 99, Topeka 94, Wichita 99
• Missouri: Kansas City 91
• Arkansas: Fort Smith 99, Pine Bluff 94
• Louisiana: Shreveport 100
• Mississippi: Tupelo 96

Daily high temperatures through Monday would be in triple digits (NWS forecast), including:

• 105 degrees or more in Wichita Falls, 102 or higher in Waco
• 100-102 in Wichita, 100-105 in Dodge City, 102 and higher in Hill City

U.S. Weather Hazards Map. Click image to enter interactive portal.

Related Links

• Entering 2nd Stage of New Climatic Extremes
• Dangerous heat spreads to Mid-Atlantic
• Dangerous heat, exceptional drought, severe storms, major flooding
• Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S.
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify
• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

Climate-Related Links

• U.S. Climate June: Extremes of Temp and Precipitation
• Epic flood threats through summer as more rain predicted
• Major Dust Storm Moves Across Arizona
• NO CHANCE: Malnourished kids fleeing Somalia’s drought

External Links

• Heat Safety Information

Entering 2nd Stage of New Climatic Extremes

Accelerating Toward Extremes

The second stage of  a new phase of climatic extremes has begun: FIRE-EARTH Models

United States: Killer heat to persist, as death toll climbs to at least 42

Worst of the heat grips parts of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas

Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings remain in effect today for parts of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia: NWS

The NWS hazards assessment map indicates excessive heat would persist in a 15-state area from North Dakota to southern Texas. The impacted area includes parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi. Click image to enlarge.

Killer Heat Stats

• U.S. heat wave has killed at least 39 people, as of July 13.

• About half the U.S. population (at least 150 million people) have been affected by the killer heat.
• In Wichita, Kansas the temperature exceeded 100 degrees for the 21st consecutive day.
• In Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, temperatures hovered around 100 degrees for the 15th consecutive day.
• Phoenix has experienced 34 consecutive days  at 100+ degrees.
• Dallas has seen 12 days at 100+ degrees.
• The searing heat has killed tens of thousands of turkeys and chickens in Kansas and North Carolina. (Source)
• Temperature records have been matched or shattered about 700 times since July 1.

Severe Thunderstorm

SPC has received 118 (filtered) reports of severe weather for Tuesday, including 3 tornadoes in northeastern Colorado, 89 reports of high winds and 26 reports of large hail. “There were numerous reports of winds in the 55-73 mph range reported in Illinois, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma,” SPC said.

“A severe thunderstorm in southeastern Wyoming dumped prodigious amounts of hail on Cheyenne and the surrounding area. The storm produced quarter-sized to golf ball sized hail that fell continuously for more than 35 minutes beginning around 5:25 p.m. CST. Accompanied by 1.46 inches of rain that fell in about 30 minutes, the hail formed drifts more than a foot deep. There was considerable hail damage to the city, including broken windshields on numerous vehicles. The heavy rain and hail created flash flood conditions in much of southwestern and western Cheyenne and Warren Air Force Base.” NWS said.

Flooding

Severe weather in the Missouri River Basin  could intensify flooding problems from the Dakotas to Missouri.

Barrier and levee breaches have occurred in Carroll County, Missouri, about 60 miles east of Kansas City, threatening dozens of communities, according to reports.

At least 12 square miles of farmland were submerged in Carroll County, after a primary levee breach along the Missouri River on Monday.

Flooding is ongoing at at least 88 stream gauge sites in the United States, mostly along the Missouri River, as of posting. Another 84 sites were Near Flood.

U.S. Flood map [July 14, 2011]

Sites at Near Flood stage.

Related Links

• Dangerous heat spreads to Mid-Atlantic
• Dangerous heat, exceptional drought, severe storms, major flooding
• Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S.
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify
• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

Climate-Related Links

• U.S. Climate June: Extremes of Temp and Precipitation
• Epic flood threats through summer as more rain predicted
• Major Dust Storm Moves Across Arizona
• NO CHANCE: Malnourished kids fleeing Somalia’s drought

Dangerous heat spreads to Mid-Atlantic

Heat Warnings/Advisories in Effect for Half the U.S. Population

Much of the Eastern, Southern and Mid-Section U.S. Experiencing Dangerous Heat

As oppressive heat gripped much of the eastern U.S. spreading into the Capital, triple-digit temperatures and heat indices hovered around the 115-degree mark, and air quality took a nosedive.

• In Wichita, Kansas the temperature exceeded 100 degrees for the 20th consecutive day.
• In Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, temperatures hovered around 100 degrees for the 14th consecutive day.

Heat Warnings and Advisories issued Monday for a large portion of the U.S. mid-section have been extended to the Mid-Atlantic states, as moist air from the Gulf of Mexico combined with dangerously high   “temperatures to perpetuate the dangerous heat illness threat across the South and East.” NWS said.

“Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect today from parts of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and the Gulf States to the northern Eastern Seaboard and Mid-Atlantic. Triple digit high temperatures and high humidity are expected for the Nation’s Capital.”

U.S. Max Temp Forecast for July 13-14.

Max Heat Index and Probability Forecast – July 13, 2011

Image Source: NOAA/HPC. Click image to enlarge.

U.S. Weather Summary

• Severe weather forecast for wide areas from the central High Plains across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic Coast.
• Heavy rain over flooded river valleys across the northern and central Plains could exacerbate ongoing flooding.
• Flash Flooding possible over parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Utah and Colorado.

Weather Forecast Map July 12, 2011. Click to enlarge.

Air Quality

Air quality alerts are in effect in parts of Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia, as of posting

Severe Weather

Severe weather extending from southeastern Wyoming to the Mid-Atlantic Coast, including parts of 14 states is possible today, NWS said.

“Parts of Wyoming, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina are at Slight Risk for severe weather. Another Slight Risk area covers most of Montana and the fringe area of north-central Idaho.”

Wednesday and Thursday Forecast: Parts of Montana, South Dakota, Wyoming, Colorado and Nebraska are also at Slight Risk for severe weather, NWS said.

SPC received 526 reports of severe weather on Monday: 474 reports of high winds and 52 reports of large hail. [Report was later filtered to 351/318/33.]

Related Links

• Dangerous heat, exceptional drought, severe storms, major flooding
• Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S.
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify
• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

Dangerous heat, exceptional drought, severe storms, major flooding

U.S. Weather Forecast, July 14 – 25

A 15-state area of the southern Plains have been experiencing “dangerously oppressive heat,” which has continued from the weekend and could last through the week.

U.S. Weather Hazards Assessment Map. Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge.

National Weather Summary

• Dangerously oppressive heat today through Wednesday throughout the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast states and the southern Atlantic Coast
• Exceptional to sever drought across the South
• Flooding continues along the Missouri River

Killer Heat!

Dangerously oppressive heat is forecast to linger on through the forecast period in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina and South Carolina.

Many of the locations could continue experiencing record-setting temperatures, forecasters said.

[NOTE: An earlier list for the heat advisory included 23 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.]

The U.S. Weather Hazards Map.  Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge.

Weekend highs included:

• Kansas
• 113 degrees (45ºC) in Ashland
• 108 in Pratt
• 112 degrees in Anthony
• 111 degrees in Wichita, Kansas*
• Oklahoma
• 111 degrees in Altus Dam, Freedom and Guthrie
• 110 degrees in Billings
• 109 in Enid and Seminole
• Texas
• 111 degrees at Lake Kemp
• 104 degrees in Dimmitt and Tulia

[*NOTE: In Wichita, Kansas, temperatures of 111 degrees have occurred only 10 times since July 1888, NWS said.]

Severe Weather

An area at Moderate Risk for severe weather development today extends from the southern half of Lake Michigan to the Ohio Valley. The area includes southeastern Wisconsin, northeastern Illinois, southwestern Lower Michigan, the northern two-thirds of Indiana, the western half of Ohio and extreme north-central Kentucky, NWS said.

On Sunday SPC received 320 reports of severe weather: 280 reports of high winds, 28 reports of large hail and 12 tornado reports. There were seven tornado reports from North Dakota, three from Colorado and two from Minnesota.

Flooding

As of this morning, 17 gauges were at Major Flooding levels, 29 were at Moderate Flood and 45 were at Minor Flood. Another 95 sites were Near Flood.

Flood Map for the U.S.

Related Links

• Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S.

• Back to the Primordial Future
• Brace for the Worst Ever
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify
• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

• Another Wild Weather Day Across the U.S.
• 2011-2012:  A TIME FOR MEGADISASTERS

Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Thousands in the U.S.

Heat: The number one weather-related killer in the United States

Deadly heatwaves of unprecedented intensity could strike the U.S. in 2011 and beyond, claiming tens of thousands of lives and affecting millions more: FIRE-EARTH Climate Model

Please cite FIRE-EARTH as the source for above forecast, if you’re copying/re-writing this information.

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980 – May 2011

Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980 – May 2011. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge

Heat-Related Fatalities

• Heat is the number one weather-related killer in the United States
• More than 1,250 people died in the heatwave of 1980.
• In the heatwave of 1995 at least 700 deaths in the Chicago area were attributed to heat.
• A record heatwave in Europe claimed about 50,000 lives in August 2003.
• The Moscow heatwave claimed an estimated 15,000 lives in August 2010.

Map of Billion Dollar Weather Disasters 1980 – 2010. Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge

The U.S. has sustained 99 weather-related disasters over the past 31 years in which overall damages/costs topped $1 billion, with the total normalized losses exceeding $725 billion. ~ NOAA

Table of Disasters by Type and Frequency

Source: NCDC/NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Map of Disasters by State

U.S. South has experienced the highest numbers of billion-dollar disasters since 1980. Image Source: NCDC/NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Billion-Dollar Disasters 2011 (Preliminary List)

2011 is already highest damage cost-to-date in the U.S. for any year since 1980 when NOAA started  tracking billion-dollar disasters.

8 billion-dollar disasters have occurred in the U.S.  so far this year:

• Groundhog Day Blizzard Jan 29-Feb 3 . Total cost: at least $3.9 billion; 36 deaths.
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes April 4-5. Total cost: $2.0 billion; 9 deaths.
• Southeast/Midwest Tornadoes April 8-11. Total cost: $2.2 billion; numerous injuries, no known deaths,  (59 tornadoes).
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes April 14-16. Total cost:  $2.0 billion; 38 deaths (160 tornadoes).
• Southeast/Ohio Valley/Midwest Tornadoes April 25-30. Total cost: $10.0 billion; 320 deaths (305 tornadoes).
• Midwest/Southeast Tornadoes May 22-27: Total cost: $7.0 billion; 172 deaths [180 tornadoes reported; at least 18 more people have since died as a result of Joplin tornado, raising the official toll to 159.]
• Texas Drought & Wildfires Spring-Summer 2011. Fighting/suppression costs are around $1 million /day; total losses to agriculture and cattle are estimated to range between $1.5-3.0 billion. This cost estimate reflects losses as of 16 June, and will likely rise as the event continues.
• Mississippi River flooding Spring-Summer 2011 Estimated economic loss ranges from $2.0-4.0; the flooding continues. Preliminary cost as of 6/16:
• $500 million to agriculture in Arkansas
• $320 million in damage to Memphis, Tennessee
• $800 million to agriculture in Mississippi
• $317 million to agriculture and property in Missouri’s Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway
• $80 million for the first 30 days of flood fighting efforts in Louisiana [Source of data: NOAA/NCDC]

Max Heat Index and Probability Forecast – July 13, 2011

Image Source: NOAA/HPC. Click image to enlarge.

Related Sites

• Billion Dollar U.S. Weather Disasters, 1980 – 2010 – The Narrative [PDF File]
• Heat: A Major Killer

Related Links

• Moscow Heat, Smog Claim Many Lives
• Another Wild Weather Day Across the U.S.
• 2011-2012:  A TIME FOR MEGADISASTERS

Updated July 12, 2011