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Potentially deadly Arctic air to affect 250 million in U.S. —FIRE-EARTH
Massive pulses of brutally cold Arctic air are sinking southward from Canada into the central and eastern U.S., affecting the western High Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. for the next few days, said NWS. “Widespread subzero overnight lows are forecast for the Dakotas, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and interior New England.”
Temperatures will be as much as 30 degrees (F) below average for parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley…
Hard Freeze Warnings, Freeze Warnings and multiples of other Weather Hazard Warnings, Watches and Advisories are in effect throughout the eastern two-thirds of the country, extending into the deep South and spanning along almost the entire Gulf Coast.
Up to 250 million people in 40 states could be affected by the Arctic blasts, according to FIRE-EARTH Models.
First major winter storm of the 2014/15 hitting the Rockies
A January-like weather pattern is forecast to continue across most of the US, with another arctic surface high moving south from Canada, said NWS forecasters, reinforcing the freezing air mass already in place . . . “unseasonably cold temperatures will fall even further this weekend, and the cold temperatures will persist for most of the central and eastern U.S.”
The first significant winter storm for the central Rockies and intermountain West is underway and bringing heavy snow to the higher elevations and a wintry mix to the valley locations. Parts of Oregon and Idaho have already seen significant snow and ice accumulations from this event, and winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are in effect from Oregon to the Colorado Rockies. [NWS]
The cold weather is forecast to affect the Deep South, with sub-freezing overnight lows from eastern Texas to the southeast coast, said the forecasters.
National High and Low Temperature (for the contiguous United States)
NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD – Issued 7 pm EST Friday, November 14, 2014
High Temperature for Friday, November 14, 2014
29°C (84 degrees F) at Pembroke Pines, FL
Low Temperature for Friday, November 14, 2014
-31°C (-24 degrees F) at Jordan, MT
-31°C (-24 degrees F) at 12 miles north of Hingham, MT
Massive winter storm to dump torrential rain, heavy snow coast-to-coast
A powerful winter storm system is forecast to move across the western U.S. this weekend dumping heavy rain and mountain snow, with floods and mudslides possible in southern California, said NWS.
The storm will push eastward this weekend bringing a dangerous wintry mix of precipitation to much of the central Plains to Ohio Valley late Saturday and Sunday, and eventually to the East Coast by Monday.
A surge of anomalously cold Arctic air is expected to cause a large-scale winter weather event across the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys later this weekend, forecasters said.
Weather Hazards Map (Hazmap) for Saturday, March 1, 2014. Issued at 04:00UTC. Source: NWS.UPDATE
FIRE-EARTH Models show more Extreme Weather Events could wreak havoc across North America in the coming days and weeks.
Temp (F) – Real Time Mesoscale Analysis. Source: NWS
Polar Vortex
In the northern and central US temperatures felt as low as -60 degrees (-51ºC) due to wind chill, according to the National Weather Service.
Illinois Governor Quinn called the Polar Vortex “one for the record books,” as New York Governor Cuomo declared on Monday that parts of major highways would be closed due to the extreme conditions.
In Minneapolis, an emergency room doctor said he was treating frostbite injuries that had occurred even through protective clothing, AP reported.
U.S. Daily Lowest Min Temperature Records set January 1-5, 2014
Records Broken: 125
Records Tied: 28
VAN BUREN 2, a National Weather Service station located in Maine, set a new daily record -47 degrees (-44ºC) on January 2, smashing the previous record set in 1999 by 21 degrees.
National High and Low Temperature (for the contiguous United States)
High Temperature for Thursday, January 6, 2014
85 degrees (-29ºC) at Fort Lauderdale, FL
85 at Hollywood, FL
85 at Miami, FL
85 at Opa Locka, FL
85 at West Kendall, FL
Low Temperature for Thursday, January 6, 2014
-37 degrees (-38ºC) at Babbitt, MN
Issued 7 pm EST Thursday, January 2, 2014 – NWS Weather Prediction Center, College Park, MD
Temperature spread: 124 degrees
A Silver Lining?
In Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport about 60 percent of the flights were canceled as fuel supplies froze, leaving crews unable to fill aircraft tanks, reported Reuters.
Total flight cancellations on Saturday: 1,771 (from or into the U.S., 1,507)
Total flight cancellations on Sunday: 3,905 (US: 3,517)
Total flight cancellations on Monday: 4,459 and (US: 4,018)
Total cancellations on Tuesday, as of posting: 1,522 and (US: 1,376)
Total Flight delays for the period, as of posting: 47,765 (US: 26,574)
(Source: FlightAware.com)
Deadly Arctic storm affecting 250 million people in 40 states —FIRE-EARTH
Life-threatening wind chill is plunging temperatures to as low as minus 60 degrees (-51ºC). The coldest temperatures in 20 years are spreading into the northern and central U.S. on Sunday following an arctic cold front.
Combined with gusty winds, these temperatures will result in life-threatening wind chill values as low as 60 degrees below zero. Also, heavy snow will develop from the eastern Plains to the Great Lakes today, with up to a foot of accumulation possible. —NWS
A massive blast of Arctic Air [aka “Polar Vortex”] is expected to set new lowest temperature records from the Northern/ Central High Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley.
Hard Freeze Warnings, Freeze Warnings and multiples of other Weather Hazard Warnings, Watches and Advisories are in effect throughout the eastern two-thirds of the country, extending into the deep South and spanning along almost the entire Gulf Coast.
The giga winter storm has killed at least 2 dozen people so far.
Up to 250 million people in 40 states are affected by the Arctic blast, according to FIRE-EARTH Models.
U.S. Weather Hazards Map (Hazmap) for Sunday, January 5, 2014. Issued at 14:54UTC. Source: NWS. Map Enhanced by FIRE-EARTH. UPDATE
Extreme rain event in Toronto triggers flash floods
Some 126 mm of rain fell across Toronto, mostly during the evening commute, causing flash floods and traffic chaos.
The amount of rainfall shattered both the previous one-day rainfall record of 29.2 mm, and the monthly average rainfall for July, which is less than 70mm, said Environment Canada.
Three regional power companies, Toronto Hydro, Enersource and Powerstream reported power outages to more than 900,000 customers in Etobicoke, Mississauga, Markham and Richmond Hill.
Floodwaters submerged subways and roads forcing authorities to suspend flights, as well as train, metro and ferry services.
Heavy rains flood roads, homes; state of emergency declared in central Manitoba community
The R.M. of Mossey River, north of Dauphin, received 150 mm of rain in just two hours on Saturday, said a report.
-oOo-
RM of Buckland declares state of emergency after severe flooding
The Rural Municipality of Buckland, north of Prince Albert, has declared a state of emergency due to flooding, said a report.
-oOo-
Rainstorms lash large parts of China
Original caption: Rescuers open up landslide-blocked Damazhuang tunnel on 302 provincial road in Beichuan Qiang Autonomous County, southwest China’s Sichuan Province, July 9, 2013. Downpours have submerged the quake-razed old town ruins of Beichuan, which was hit by an 8.0-magnitude earthquake in May 2008. (Xinhua). More images …
At least 16,900 people in 4,920 households in the district have been affected. Direct economic losses are estimated at 768 million yuan (125.18 million U.S. dollars).
Local governments have relocated over 5,200 residents and tourists to get them out of the way of potential geological disasters.
Downpours also submerged quake-razed ruins in Beichuan Qiang Autonomous County, which has received 300 mm of precipitation. More than 42,000 people in Beichuan have been affected by the downpours.
As of 9 a.m. Monday, the commission had reported nine people dead and 11 missing in southwest China’s Sichuan Province, seven fatalities and two missing in neighboring Yunnan Province, four deaths in central China’s Hubei Province and three losses of life in east China’s Anhui Province.
A further ten fatalities were also reported in Beijing, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Tibet Autonomous Region, and provinces of Hebei, Heilongjiang, Shandong and Gansu. One person is also missing in Helongjiang Province.
Since July 3, natural disasters caused by downpours have affected about 6.75 million people in 284 counties, districts or prefecture-level cities across China, according to the commission.
Heavy rains that started on Friday have left three people dead and affected lives of about 1.87 million residents in central China’s Hubei Province, local authorities said Sunday.
The provincial civil affairs department said the downpours have also forced the relocation of about 114,000 people in 29 counties.
More than 7,000 houses have been destroyed or damaged and 151,900 hectares of crops have been affected. Economic losses are estimated at about 684 million yuan (about 111.6 million U.S. dollars), according to the department.
The highest precipitation in the province reached 168 mm in 24 hours in Tuanfeng County, the department said. [Source: Xinhua]
-oOo-
Douglas County, NV declares a state of emergency due to exploding Bison fire
A state of emergency has been declared in Douglas County as the Bison fire exploded to nearly 26,000 acres. The blaze was reportedly 25% contained, as of posting.
The Bison Fire started at approximately 3:30 p.m. on Thursday, July 4, 2013. The lightning-caused fire is located along the western slope of the Pinenut Mountain range in Douglas County, Nevada, and is burning a combination of BLM public lands, Native American allotment lands, and private lands about five miles east of Gardnerville (east of U.S. Highway 395).
The fire has made significant runs on July 7 and 8 to the northeast through the Slater Mine area, burning through dense stands of pinyon pine, as well as crossing over the crest of the Pine Nut Range and backing down into the north end of Smith Valley. [Inciweb.]
-oOo-
Another Pathetic Turn in the Fukushima Farce
Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), the operator of the Fukushima nuke plant reported Monday it had detected radioactive caesium-134 at levels that were 90 times higher than three days earlier. The latest incident occurred at an observation well located between the damaged reactor No. 2 and the ocean, reports said.
TEPCO said it had detected caesium-134 at 9,000 becquerels per liter, or 150 times above Japan’s safety standard (!) in the well, which is just 25 meters from the ocean.
Ouch!
“We don’t know what is the reason behind the spike,” Tepco spokeswoman Mayumi Yoshida told Reuters. “We’re still looking to determine the causes behind it.”
The following probability figures calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011 still hold!
Japan (880)³
United States (865)
France (855)
Taiwan (850)
Belgium, China, Finland, India, South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain, Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Canada (810)
Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
Switzerland (750)
Notes:
The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted here is subject to numerous variable factors.
Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50 months.
Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding…]
The Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast. (Last UPDATED: June 26, 2011)
DO NOT underestimate the destructive power of fast-moving water: Governor Cuomo!
Torrential rains have triggered widespread flooding and large-scale mudslides damaging houses and businesses, closing roads and forcing people to flee their homes in New York’s Mohawk Valley.
Governor Cuomo has issued a disaster declaration for 15 New York counties that have been hit by severe storms and widespread flooding. The counties are Broome, Chenango, Clinton, Delaware, Essex, Franklin, Herkimer, Madison, Montgomery, Oneida, Otsego, Tioga, Schoharie, St. Lawrence and Warren. Additionally, local states of emergency have been declared for the following areas:
Village of Ilion, Herkimer County
Town of Chesterfield, Essex County
Town & Village of Middleburgh, Schoharie County
Herkimer County
Town and Village of Herkimer, Herkimer County
Village of Mohawk, Herkimer County
Town of Elizabethtown, Essex County
Town of Johnsburg, Warren County
Village of Sherburne, Chenango County
Montgomery County
Town of Minden, Montgomery County
Town of Whitesboro, Oneida County
Town of German Flats, Herkimer County
Meantime, more rain has been forecast for the region, with the possibility there of more flooding in additional areas.
Flooding in the Mohawk River, New York. Photo shows the flooding in the city of Oneida. For more images click SOURCE.
Alerts and notifications available at NY Alert’s website: www.nyalert.gov
-oOo-
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Beijing Air Pollution Off the Chart Again
The Air Quality Index in the Chinese capital zoomed into and above the “Hazardous” territory again late Friday, hitting the 529 mark. The index fell back to 193, or “Unhealthy” as of posting.
Disaster Declared for Mineral County, Colo., as Papoose Fire Explodes
Mineral County has been declared a disaster area, due to the uncontrolled, fast-moving Papoose Fire.
“The Papoose Fire, southwest of Creede, made a significant run to the north Thursday afternoon, growing from approximately 2,000 acres to more than 11,000 acres [~34,000 acres as of posting.] It is burning near the Road Canyon Reservoir and 30-Mile Campground, while threatening subdivisions in the area,” said a report.
The 34,000-acre blaze is also causing concern because it is moving toward the Rio Grande Reservoir dam, an important water source for the San Luis Valley, the report said. Meantime, the towns of Del Norte, South Fork and Wagon Wheel Gap have been evacuated.
The West Fork Complex Fire, which includes the Papoose Fire, had grown to more than 90,000 acres with 2% contained as of 8:00 am, June 28, 2013, according to Inciweb.
West Fork Complex Fire, located about 14.5 miles north/northeast of Pagosa Springs, CO, was sparked by lightning on June 5, 2013. Image source: Inciweb.
-oOo-
Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke for Continental America
Arctic ice-melt is not just a local issue, it affects climate, weather globally
Melting sea ice may appear to be or local at worst regional problem, but NOAA says that changes in the Arctic ice cover also influence weather in the mid-latitudes, where the majority of humans live.
Just about every model available for the Arctic ice cover in the future predict a continuation of the present pattern, an acceleration in the ice melt.
What happens when the open arctic waters absorb the additional heat?
The additional heat impacts the Arctic winds and therefore the Arctic atmosphere, increasing the variability and unpredictability of global wind patterns. For additional information visit How the loss of sea ice leads to a warmer Arctic
Cold arctic winds move to mid-altitude regions of the globe, spawning violent winter storm in the U.S. and Eurasia.
Teleconnections impact mid-latitudes
Warmer temperatures that result from huge losses in the sea ice cover give rise to higher pressure surfaces above the North Pole which in turn impact large scale wind patterns over the Northern Hemisphere. “Climate models show these connections with cold air moving south, producing low pressure areas and unusually cold winters in the eastern U.S. and eastern Asia, and cooler than usual weather in late winter from Europe to the Far East.” For additional information visit How changes in the Arctic impact weather and climate in Europe, Asia and the US.
In the figures below, red, yellow and green colors indicate areas over the Arctic region where autumn near-surface air temperatures were from 2 to 6°C warmer than the normal values observed prior to 2002.
Anomalies for autumn in 2002-2005 represent deviations from the normal near surface air temperature values which were observed from 1968-1996. Figure from Overland and Wang via NOAA
Anomalies for autumn 2007-2008 represent deviations from the normal near surface air temperature values which were observed from 1968-1996. Figure from Overland and Wang via NOAA
Anomalies (above) represent deviations from normal pressure surface elevations over the Arctic. Figure from Overland and Wang via NOAA
The elevated pressure surfaces above the North Pole persist into early winter and impact large scale wind patterns over the Northern Hemisphere, allowing cold are to move southward.
Figure (below) shows the changes in the Northern Hemisphere wind fields that are associated with late autumn surface air temperature and earlier sea loss. Blue and purple colors indicate areas with wind deviations below normal. Note the much reduced winds north of Alaska and western Canada.2
The reduction in winds opposes the usual atmospheric circulation patterns, allowing outbreaks of cold Arctic air to move southward.
It must be noted that there is considerable year-to-year variability in pressure fields, and that modifications of mid-latitude weather by wind patterns associated with sea ice reduction can be complex (involving storm track and longwave interactions).
However a consequence of the changes in Arctic atmospheric temperature and pressure, following loss of sea ice, is increased likelihood of cold air moving southward via teleconnections to impact weather at mid-latitudes.
As summer Arctic open water area increases over the next decades, we anticipate an increasing influence of loss of summer sea ice on the atmospheric northern hemisphere general circulation in following seasons with resultant impacts on northern hemisphere weather. For more information visit source: Loss of summer Arctic sea ice … and Arctic Future Web site
Anomalies (above) represent deviations from normal east-west winds over the Arctic. Figure from Overland and Wangvia NOAA
BERTHA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE
Hurricane BERTHA Public Advisory #27
AT 500 PM AST…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES…
900 KM…NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660
MILES…1060 KM…SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
Portrait of Bertha [Updated] NOAA
BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BERTHA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.
Bertha Heading West/Northwest. [Updated] NOAA
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.64 INCHES.
LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BERMUDA
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION…24.8 N…58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST. FORECASTER RHOME
Is it a mega-tropical storm system, or an extra-tropical cyclone (ETC), i.e., a non-tropical, large-scale low pressure storm system like a Nor’easter?
“Hydrokong” is a colossal atmospheric phenomenon. It’s an extreme precipitation event which is enhanced by circulation changes that increase and concentrate the distribution of water vapor.
Hydrokong! The Storm System as it appeared over the central United States June 12, 2008 04:15 UTC. The still image is an aviation color enhancement of a satellite image.
Globally, as total precipitation increases, the duration or frequency of precipitation events decreases. However, warmer temperatures and regional variation can significantly affect those offsetting behaviors. For example, reduced total precipitation in one region, the Western United States, can significantly increase the intensity of precipitation in another region, the Midwest. Hydrokongs essentially create two extreme events, droughts in one region and flooding caused by mega-intense precipitation in another. As the global temperatures rise, more hydrokongs should be expected.
Another Hydrokong in the making? A new System as it appeared over the central United States June 27, 2008 04:15 UTC. The still image is an aviation color enhancement of a satellite image.
An aviation color enhancement of a floater [updated periodically] satellite image GEOS Eastern U.S. Imagery, NOAA SSD. For full size image right-click on the image and select “View Image.”
In the words of Brian Pierce, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, describing the aftermath of flooding last week: “We are seeing a historic hydrological event taking place with unprecedented river levels occurring.”
Are Extreme Precipitation Events Earth’s Natural Defense Mechanisms?
Fire Earth 