Posts Tagged ‘wind anomaly’
Posted by feww on November 24, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 23 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 140°W. [Expanding across the Tropical Pacific. FEWW ]
[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in the Eq. Pacific
- The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m) heat content is greatestprior to and during the early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode (compare top 2 panels) and leastprior to and during the early stages of a cold(La Niña) episode.
- The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least (greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
- Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and the thermocline slope index (negative) reflect El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late September –mid November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 -150m depth.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Day
Click image to enlarge.
Intraseasonal Variability
- Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
- Related to this activity
- significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, ENSO | Tagged: australia, eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 17, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 16 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 140°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across
the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late September – early November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 – 150m depth.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-September through October, anomalous troughing was prevalent over the North Pacific Ocean. During October, the pattern of below-average heights became more zonal over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge developed over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. Since early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes has been replaced by anomalous ridges with below-average heights across the northernmost latitudes. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: australia, eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on November 11, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 9 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 160°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the northern Philippines and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During mid September –October 2009, temperature anomalies increased and expanded eastward in the central equatorial Pacific at thermoclinedepth, due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the central Pacific near 100-150m depth.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
In late September and early October, an anomalous ridge developed over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough and below-average temperatures over parts of the U.S. During mid October, the pattern became more zonal with an anomalous trough evident over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and the eastern half of the U.S. Recently, anomalous ridges emerged over the eastern North Pacific and eastern U.S. leading to above-average temperatures over the western and eastern U.S.
Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s-1)
- Since April 2009, the MJO has been weak.
- Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.
- Recently, the largest westerly wind anomalies have been observed across the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least theNorthern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 3, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 2 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were located across the northern Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 1 November 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean SST, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean | Tagged: Climate Prediction, eastern Pacific, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 22, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 19 October 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in australia, Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, western tropical pacific ocean | Tagged: Canada, El Niño, ENSO, Gulf of Alaska, Indian Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 6, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 5 Oct 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ -0.3ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Highlights
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, SST anomalies decreased over the eastern equatorial SST.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During early August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over thecentral U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.
The most recent ONI value (July –September 2009) is +0.8oC.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño conditions, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Tagged: El Niño, ENSO, Equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, Sub-Surface Temperature Departures, Tropical Pacific, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 15, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 14 Sept 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, the change in equatorial SST
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.
Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific
1. During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.
2. The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.
In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.
Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.
3. Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.
Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 September 2009
El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
For additional information see following links.
Relate Links:
El Niño Updates
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Tagged: El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on August 25, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 24 August 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.
Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have been positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, there has been little change in SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late-June through mid-August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean.
- The most recent period shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the west-central Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).
Summary:
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
See El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates
Posted in El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST | Tagged: El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on August 4, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 3 August 2009
Summary
- El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Tropical Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Wind Anomalies – Last 30 Days
(Top) Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia and northern Australia, while negative anomalies (enhanced convection, blue shading) in the western and central Pacific from Papua New Guinea to 160°W.
(Middle) Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the far western Pacific.
(Above) Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies remained near-average across much of the Pacific, except for westerly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific.
Images and caption: NOAA/ NCEP.
Related Links:
Posted in Atmospheric Circulation, El Niño/La Niña, Indian Ocean, northern hemisphere, Oceanic Niño Index, ONI, Upper-Ocean Conditions | Tagged: El Niño, El Niño report, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, model forecast of enso, tropical OLR, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on July 28, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 27 July 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.6ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
Summary
- El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least +0.5°C above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and at least +1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
The upper ocean heat content was below-average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between mid-August 2008 and March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. The heat content anomalies have remained positive since April 2009. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP] Full Report
Related Links:
Notes:
1. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
- El Niño:characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.
- La Niña:characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.
- By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
- CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.
2. Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
- The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
- Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analysis (Extended Reconstructed SST –ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)
- Used to place current events into a historical perspective.
- NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.
3. The most recent ONI value (April –June 2009) is +0.2oºC.
El Niño Conditions Set in Across Pacific Ocean [From NASA’s Earth Observatory]
El Niño conditions are evident in this sea surface temperature anomaly image based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 26. The current data are compared to 12-year average temperatures (1985-1997) measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers that have flown on several NOAA missions.
Cream-colored places represent near normal temperatures; red is warmer than normal temps; while, blue shows cooler than normal areas. The dark red area on the eastern Pacific off the coast of Peru and Ecuador (north of Peru) indicates much warmer than average temps. Across the Pacific, ocean temperatures around Indonesia were slightly cooler (light blue) than usual.
Earth’s largest ocean, the Pacific is the single biggest influence on the average temperature, rainfall, and vegetation conditions in the tropics. The Pacific’s primary climate pattern, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), includes an ocean component (the El Niño/La Niña pattern) and an atmospheric component, the Southern Oscillation.
Every 3-8 years, the prevailing easterly winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific weaken or reverse, surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific climb, and rainfall declines over most tropical land areas. In 1997-98, an El Niño event contributed to devastating fires in Indonesia’s tropical forests, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which completely destroyed the Mentawai coral reefs west of Sumatra.
El Niño ocean conditions does not guarantee full ENSO event. So far the atmospheric component of the pattern, the Southern Oscillation, isn’t fully cooperating. As of July 26, the trade winds in the western Pacific (near Indonesia) had shifted direction and were blowing weakly toward the east (see NOAA wind anomaly graphic), but across the central and eastern Pacific, easterly trade winds were still of average or slightly above-average strength. For an ENSO event to fully develop, the easterly trades will have to weaken across a much wider area of the Pacific than now.
NASA image by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey. [Edited by FEWW.]
Posted in El Niño, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, North Pacific, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST | Tagged: El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, Mentawai coral reefs, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
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