HURRICANE IRMA LEAVES BARBUDA, HEADS TOWARD ST. MARTIN –NHC

Monster Hurricane IRMA packing sustained winds of 185mph (~ 300 km/h)

Eye of potentially catastrophic category 5 Hurricane IRMA is moving away from Barbuda and toward St. Martin, NHC reported.

Hurricane IRMA Status as at 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 6
Location: 17.9°N, 62.6°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 914 mb
Max sustained winds: 185 mph (~ 300 km/h)

 

TS RAYMOND forms off Mexico, threatens Acapulco with more rain

Tropical storm RAYMOND could dump more rain on storm-battered Acapulco

RAYMOND formed off Mexico’s Pacific coast on Sunday, threatening to dump more heavy rain on the storm-batted resort of Acapulco.

The storm will likely become a hurricane within 48 hours, said the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch in Guerrero state from Acapulco, which is still recovering from deadly floods in September, to the port of Lazaro Cardenas.

The storm could dump significant amounts of rain on the region over the next few days causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, said NHC.

Tropical storms MANUEL and INGRID converged from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico in September, dumping record rain on the region, which triggered historic flooding, killing more than 150 people and causing widespread devastation estimated at about $6 billion.

RAYMOND – Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Source: NHC

Related Links

• MANUEL and INGRID Kill Dozens in Mexico Posted on September 16, 2013
• INGRID Forces Thousands to Seek Emergency Shelter Posted on September 15, 2013
• Death Toll from Mexico Storms Climbs to 110 Posted on September 23, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – September 21, 2013 Posted on September 21, 2013
• The Second Coming of MANUEL Posted on September 19, 2013
• Global Disaster Headlines – September 18, 2013
• Twin Storms Leave 42 Dead, 1.2 Million Battered  September 17, 2013

Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

Ike makes landfall in Cuba

Weakened fortuitously to a Category 3 hurricane, Ike made landfall in Cuba in the province of Holguin near Punto de Sama on the north coast of eastern Cuba at about 01:45UTC, NHC said, with maximum winds of about 205 km/hr.

GOES-East 4km IR4 Floater 2 –  Date and Time: Latest Image, Updated – Credit: RAMSDIS-CIRA/RAMM – Colorado State University

Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.08 at 14:45UTC. Centerpoint Latitude: 21:15:44N Longitude: 78:26:22W. GOES-12 1 km visible imagery. [Data Elements: The center of Ike may be over open water south of Cuba soon. Ike may not weaken as much as previously shown.] Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

By 03:00 the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 75.8 west near Cabo Lucrecia about 220km east of Camaguey Cuba.

Ike is now moving in a westerly direction at 20 km/hr, and is expected to turn west to west-northwest in the next 24-48 hours.  On this track the center will move over eastern, central and western Cuba through Tuesday.

Since making landfall, Ike’ maximum sustained winds have marginally receded to about 195 km/hr, and is now a category 3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Further weakening is likely as Ike moves over Cuba.

Ike’s Legacy in the Caribbeans [so far]

Turks and Caicos Islands (Population 22,500): T & C took the full brunt of Ike as a Category 4 hurricane with 215 km/hr winds. About 80 percent of the houses on Grand Turk (population 3,000 were destroyed or damaged, an official said.

The Dominican Republic: Up to 50,000 people abandoned their homes because of the powerful winds and rain.

Haiti: The downpour from Ike caused the La Quinte river to rise again flooding the city of Gonaives for the second time since Hannah struck. By Sunday evening Gonaives was “a devastated and isolated city,” its mayor reportedly said, “all of our bridges to the rest of the country have collapsed.”

For additional images see: Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike On The North Coast Of Eastern Cuba

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Pasch
• Date and Time: Sept 8, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About195 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is still a very dangerous  3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale. Some weakening is expected as Ike moves over Cuba.

• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).
• Storm surge flooding: 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected within the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
• Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hours.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over eastern and central Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
  • The southern Bahamas: Possible rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches from Ike.
  • Portions of Hispaniola: Additional amounts of 3 to 5 inches.
  • Turks and Caicos islands: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches.
  • Florida Keys: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Latest Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Ike: A Deadly Hurricane by any Other Name

2008 Year of the Rain, too?

GOES – Floater Image – UneEnhanced Infrared CH4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

FEWW Comment:  Ike has re-restrengthened to a  Category 4A on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (Cat. 4 on Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale)  with extremely dangerous wind speeds of about 215km/hr. It’s outer bands have enveloped the Dominican Republic and the northeastern peripheries of Haiti, moving slowly to cover north [and rest] of the island, where 500 people have already died and up to a million others displaced from previous storms. More rain, flooding, deaths and devastation are to be expected.

Subject to current weather condition and sea temperatures in the Caribbeans and on its forecast path, hurricane Ike may strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane as it approaches/makes landfall in Cuba, striking ferociously at the heart of the tropical island, which is already reeling from the shock of the previous three storms (Fay, Gustav and Hannah) in as many weeks. It’s hoped that the resilient Cuban people would literally “weather the storm.”

Storm Centered Infrared Image. Click here for  JAVA Movie (color enhancement). credit CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison

GOES – Tropical Floater Imagery – Infrared CH 4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

GOES EAST – North Atlantic Imagery – JSL2 enhancement – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

Eye of Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Ike Passing Over the Turks Islands

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Avila
• Date and Time:Sept 7, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is an extremely dangerous category four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale [Cat 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale]. Some strengthening is
  Possible before Ike moves over eastern Cuba.
• Location: The large eye of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.2 north, longitude 70.9 west, very close to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 24 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue Sunday with a gradual turn to the west late Sunday. On this track, the core of the hurricane Will begin to affect the southeastern Bahamas early Sunday.  Ike should then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of eastern Cuba Sunday night/early Monday.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 947mb (27.96 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels and large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in the warning areas.
• Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hrs.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.

• Rainfall: About 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 inches) with isolated maximum amounts of 30 cm (12 inches) are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 15 to 30 cm (6 to 12 inches) of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm (20 inches) possible.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over mountainous terrain.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA/NHC/NWS

Related “Year of the Expected Unknowns” Links:

• This’s Got to Be the Year of Radioactive, Chemical and Oil Spills, Too!
• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• California Fires: Not Hard to Understand!

• 2008: Year of the Expected Unknowns!
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

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