Tropical Storm Alex Forms Near BELIZE

TS ALEX the First Named Storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010 Nears the Coast of Belize

Northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing heavy rainfall.

Alex – Visible/Infrared satellite image – Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Alex poses a potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico cleanup operation, though the risk is seen as minimal at this stage.

GOES East Hurricane Sector Infrared Image. Click image to update.

U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad (FAT) Allen was quoted as saying BP may be forced to suspend oil containment operations, “if a storm with gale-force winds were expected within five days at the leak site.” Reuters reported.

“We understand it’s moving westerly at this time and does not threaten the site,” said Allen, adding however, “we all know that the weather is unpredictable.”

Shell Oil Co has announced that it would also evacuate 300 non-essential employees from its Gulf of Mexico offshore operations as a precaution, the report said.

ALEX Projected Path: Various Dynamical Models Forecasts.  Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge

Meanwhile, the state of Louisiana filed a motion with the U.S. Appeals Court for the Fifth Circuit on Saturday opposing the DOI’s request to stay a ruling from the federal judge who overturned a six-month ban on new deepwater drilling in the Gulf, Reuters reported.

TS ALEX: Summary of Details  at 00:01 UTC, Sunday 27 June 2010

• LOCATION: 17.4N 88.1W
• Distances
  • About 25km (15 miles)  SE of Belize City
  • About 125km  (75miles) south of Chetumal, Mexico
• Max. Sustained Winds 100km/hr (65 MPH)
• Currently Moving W (280 degrees) at 19km/hr (12 MPH)
• Min Central Pressure 996 MB (29.41 inches)

Satellite Imagery:

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

Related Links:

• Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster: Headline News
• Tropical Depression One: Forecast
• Tropical Depression One: Forecast
• Tropical Wave Continues to Wreak Havoc Across Caribbean

Tropical Depression One: Forecast

Tropical Depression One: Initial Motion Highly Uncertain

Tropical Depression One Moving West-Northwestward Toward Belize and the Yucatan peninsula, Mexico.

GOES EAST – IR Satellite Image (AVNCOLOR Enhancement). Click image to update.

Summary of Details @ 11:00 pm EDT 03:00 UTC (source: NHC)

• Location: 16.7N 84.4W
• Distances:
  • About 415 km (255 miles) ESE of Belize City
  • About 460 km (285 miles) ESE of Chetumal, Mexico
• Maximum sustained winds 55 km/hr (35 mph)
• Present movement: WNW or 295 degrees at 15 km/hr (9 mph)
• Minimum central pressure: 1004 mb, 753.1mm (29.65 inches)

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center (NOAA)

Click image to update forecast track.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Atlantic and East Pacific Oceans

• Real Time POES Imagery Atlantic/East Pacific SST Loop

• SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water – Global

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

Related Links:

• Tropical Wave Continues to Wreak Havoc Across Caribbean
• 2010 Hurricane Forecast

Ida Became a Hurricane, Again!

November 10, 2009

LATE UPDATE: Ida Coming Back?

UPDATE: Hurricane IDA

Hurricane Ida Status at 600 AM CST 12:00 UTC
Location: 25.8N, 88.2W
Maximum sustained: 130 km/h(80 mph)
Current direction: NNW (335 degrees) at 26 km/h (16 mph)
Minimum Central pressure:  993 MB  (29.32 inches)

NOAA Said:

Rains will be increasing well in advance of Ida across the central and eastern gulf coast, but will become steadier and heavier later today into Tuesday.  Total storm accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches, are possible through Tuesday from the central and eastern gulf coast northward into the eastern portions of the Tennessee valley and the southern Appalachians.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

.

IDA Reaches Hurricane Intensity

In

Could Ida Become a Hurricane?

FEWW Moderators forecast that  Ida had a more than 1 in 4 chance  [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm.

At 05:15 UTC Sun Nov 8, 2009  [11:15 PM CST Sat Nov 7] NOAA reported that data from its buoy 42056, located in the NW Caribbean Sea, approximately 195 km (120 miles)  ESE of Cozumel, Mexico, had reported  a 1-minute sustained wind of about 120km/h (75 mph), which indicated Ida has once a again become a hurricane.

FEWW Moderators further believe that Hurricane Ida, could strengthen to a Category 3A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale [Cat 3 on Saffir-Simpson scale] within the next 24-48 hours.

Hurricane Ida Status at 07:15 UTC (1:15 AM CST)

Location:  20.2N, 85.4W
Maximum Sustained Winds: 150 km/h (90 mph) – with higher gusts
Present Movement: Northwest (325 degrees) at about 17 km/h (10 mph)
Minimum central pressure: 983 MB

With 30-km hurricane force winds radii, and tropical storm force winds extending 220 km from the center, hurricane IDA is currently a compact hurricane.

Hurricane IDA. NOAA GOES 12 – Still Image dated Nov 08, 2009 – NASA GSFC GOES Project. Click image to enlarge and update.

GOES Full Disk. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Hurricane Ida. GOES-East – Still Sat Image. AVNColor enhancement. Click image to enlarge and update.

Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

GOES-East/Meteosat-9/MTSAT/ IR Mosaic Color Background  – Atlantic Region. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Hurricane Ida. Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Click image to enlarge and update.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to enlarge and update.

NOAA Storm Advisory

• AT 115 AM CST (0715 UTC) THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
• A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
• A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

Other Images

• FEWW Satellite Imagery Index

Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Water Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vaopr
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – JXTpSCT

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vapor
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Atlantic – Infrared
• Northwest Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – NCrASAT

UPDATE: TS DOLLY, CRISTOBAL & Hurricane Fausto

For July 23 UPDATE Click Here >> Dolly, Now A Hurricane, Heads Towards S. Texas

Look Out, Dolly Is Coming!

Dolly May Be Heading Towards Southern Texas

NOAA Advisories:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

DOLLY ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

AT 8 AM EDT (1200 UTC) THE GOVERNMENT OF YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA – INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH/LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 65 MILES (105 KM) EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/HR). A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DOLLY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS
FROM NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION 21.6 N. 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT. – FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS

AT 500 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES (175 KM) NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH (20
KM/HR) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION 36.1 N 73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT. – FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

FAUSTO STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS

AT 200 AM PDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES
(650 KM) WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/HR) AND
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (160 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE HURRICANE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES (185 KM).

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.79 INCHES).

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION 20.1 N. 115.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT. – FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

Related Links:

• HURRICANE FAUSTO
• Tropical Storm Cristobal Treks Northeast
• National Weather Warnings

.

Arthur Starts the Hurricane Season

Arthur Forms Punctually Near Belize City, Mexico

Tropical storm Arthur, Atlantic’s first named storm for 2008, lashed Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula with strong winds of about 40 mph (65 kph), dumping heavy rains on Saturday.

Infrared image GOES Floater (updated every hour or so). NOAA – National Hurricane Center

As if with clockwork precision, Arthur was formed just hours before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season about 75 miles (125 km) northwest of Belize City, Mexico.

Alma, the tropical storm formed in the Pacific, fizzled out on Friday after sloshing Nicaragua’s Pacific coast, killing three people.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (purple). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. (Graph and caption NOAA)

Related Information:

• OceanView –GOES Floater Imagery for Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
• A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone

Related Links:

• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• Tropical Cyclones
• 33 percent More Disasters