Watching Events Unfold, Frame by Frame, Exactly as Forecast

Drought 2012 could linger for months

Corn and soybean prices break all-time records. Corn prices have climbed 53 percent in one month, as worst drought and poorest crop conditions in decades decimate yields in the Corn Belt region and beyond.

U.S. Drought Map for July 17, 2012, released July 19.

List of Disaster Areas Continues Growing

On Wednesday, USDA designated an additional 39 counties in 8 states as Primary Natural Disaster areas due to worsening drought, making up a disaster total of 1,297 counties in 29 states.  Additionally,  several hundred other counties have been declared as contiguous disaster areas.

One Way Drought

Drought is intensifying in the Corn Belt region and creeping to the areas beyond including Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, southern Minnesota and parts of Missouri, Kentucky and the Dakotas.

Drought and Deluge Double Whammy

The historic drought could finally end in an epic deluge, in which case what is already extreme stress on the topsoil would be incalculable.

NASS Crop Production Data. Map of drought superimposed on the corn production areas, July 10, 2012.

Drought Stats

• Nearly two-thirds of Continental U.S. is currently in drought condition

• More than 42 percent of the lower 48 states were in SEVERE, EXTREME or EXCEPTIONAL Drought Conditions (D2-D4) as of July 17, 2012, a rise of over 5 percent since last week.

• As of July 17, 2012,  the entire Continental U.S. with the exception of Maine was experiencing Abnormally Dry or Drought Conditions (D0 -D4)  in full or in parts of the states, a situation which has since worsened due to scant precipitation and a persistent heat wave in the past few days.

• More than 81 percent of the Contiguous United States was Abnormally Dry or in Drought  Conditions (D0 – D4).
• Drought 2012 is considered as the worst drought since 1956 and worst agricultural drought since 1988.

• About 40% of the U.S. corn crop is in poor-very poor condition.
• Good-excellent soybean crop dropped to 34% – down from 56% at start of season.
• Some 1,297 counties in 29 states have been declared as primary natural disaster areas, with several hundred other counties designated as contiguous disaster areas.
• Less than 10 percent topsoil moisture is left in South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.
• Topsoil moisture in the entire Central Region is below 50 percent of normal.
  • Drought is expected to persist or intensify across Central Region.
  • About 98 percent of corn is grown within Central Region.
• About 80 percent of corn grown in the U.S. is experiencing drought.

Deadly Heat Persists

Meantime, preliminary records from NCDC showed 145 high temperature records broken Wednesday and 67 records tied in 23 states: Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Virginia, Vermont, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

High temperatures in the triple digits will be the norm for the next several days for parts of the central U.S., with heat indices reaching into the 110 degree range. Some NWS Forecast Offices have already extended their heat advisories to last through the middle of next week. Source: NWS

Daily Max Heat Index Forecast

Latest Related Posts

• U.S. Drought Continues to Spread, Intensify Posted July 19, 2012
• Another Heat Wave Grips America’s Heartland Posted July 18, 2012
• Drought Continues to Plague Two-Thirds of Continental U.S.  Posted July 17, 2012
• Drought and deluge 

Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events

• Fires ravage Madeira islands and mainland Portugal
• Nationwide Spanish protests turn violent
• Over a third of Fukushima children at risk of developing cancer  [Google, WordPress and others filtered/blocked/suppressed FIRE-EARTH warnings on Fukushima nuclear disaster.]
• 80 people still missing after a Tanzanian ferry sank near Zanzibar
• Over 2,000 houses inundated in flood in Nepal

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Let Dolphins Be!

Thrill-seeking holidaymakers are putting dolphins at risk

Public release: Newcastle University

Tourists wanting to watch and swim with dolphins are now being urged to keep their distance in a bid to protect both the animals and the local communities whose livelihoods depend on them.

A study of bottlenose dolphins living off the coast of Zanzibar has found that the many tourist boats operating in the area are harassing the animals, preventing them from resting, feeding and nurturing their young.

The research, led by Dr Per Berggren of Newcastle University, also highlights swimming with dolphins – in particular where tourists swim in very close and try to touch the dolphins– as being incredibly stressful for the animals.

Printed today in the academic journal Endangered Species Research, the authors say regulation of the dolphin tourism industry is “urgently needed” to minimize the potential long-term negative impact on the animals.

Dr Berggren, who joined Newcastle from Stockholm University earlier this month, explained: “The current situation in Zanzibar is unsustainable. The local community is dependent on tourism – and therefore the dolphins – but unless the activity is regulated the animals will leave.

“Our study found that whenever the tourist boats were present the dolphins were very unsettled and spent less time feeding, socialising or resting. This has a negative impact, not only on individual animals, but on the population as a whole and long term it could be devastating.

“The problem is that any change needs to be tourist-driven. Many visitors will pay drivers extra in tips to steer their boats in close, herding the dolphins so they can dive right in amongst them. Our message is, keep your distance and put the dolphins first.”

Dolphin-watching was introduced off the South coast of Zanzibar in 1992. Today it is one of the few places in the world where tourism has completely replaced the traditional dolphin hunt – an activity which threatened the local population of around 150 bottlenose dolphins.

“Abolishing the hunts was a major breakthrough and dolphin watching offered a humane, sustainable alternative,” says Dr Berggren.

“Unfortunately, without regulation, dolphin tourism brings with it its own challenges.”

Watching the dolphins over a period of 40 days, the research team found that in the presence of the tourist boats, the time the dolphins spent resting dropped from 38 per cent of the time to 10 per cent while the time they spent foraging and socialising dropped from 19 and 10 per cent to just 10 and 4 per cent, respectively.

Meanwhile, travelling behaviour more than doubled in proportion, from 33 to 77 per cent, becoming by far the most dominant activity state during interactions with tourist boats.

“Overall, the dolphins are using more energy than they are taking in because they aren’t resting or feeding as much but are swimming more as they try to avoid the tourist boats,” explains Dr Berggren, based in the School of Marine Science and Technology at Newcastle University.

“Zanzibar is a wonderful place, the dolphins are incredibly interesting and between July and October there are also breeding humpbacks in the area. I would recommend that anyone go there for a holiday and support the local community but act responsibly and ask operators to follow existing guidelines.”   Contact: Dr. Per Berggren per.berggren@ncl.ac.uk

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