Eyjafjallajökull Glacier Hit by New Wave of Seismicity

About 3 dozen quakes strike Eyjafjallajökull Glacier, other quake clusters near Kolbeinsey ridge and Tjörnes fracture zone

Recent IMO Assessment – dated 09 May 2010 at 15:00UTC

The plume mostly reached height of about 4-5 km shooting up to 6 km (20,000 ft) occasionally, and heading southeast despite low level easterly winds.

Deflation continued at Eyjafjallajökull volcano. No indications eruption might end soon.

Eyjafjallajökull view from Hvolsvelli

Eyjafjallajökull view from Thórólfsfelli webcam (Heat Signature)

European Air-Travel

Meanwhile, airtravellers experienced more delays today as more ash clouds drifting from Eyjafjallajökull volcano continued to disrupt some flights.  Transatlantic flights faced severe disruption as planes were forced into long detours to avoid the ash cloud, thereby increasing flight times.

The air traffic volume was about 500 below the daily average of 28,500 flights today compared to 1,500 cancellations yesterday.

“We’re all at the mercy of the volcano and there is just no way of knowing how long it will continue to erupt. We would normally be getting south-westerly winds at this time of year and it’s pretty unusual to have northerly winds dominating the weather. It’s very much a day-to-day situation at the moment. The volcano died down a bit for a spell and has now got more active.” A UK Met Office spokeswoman said.

Related Links:

• Renewed Eyjafjallajökull ash causes more air chaos

• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption – MODIS Image – UPDATE May 8
• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption – UPDATE May 7
• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption – ALI-EO1 Satellite Image Posted on May 6, 2010
• Volcanic Ash Closes Parts of UK Airspace Again Posted on May 5, 2010
• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption Intensifies, Flight Ban Imposed Posted on May 4, 2010

• Iceland’s Bárdarbunga May Be Erupting
• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption Links Page [This page contains a comprehensive index of links to info on Eyjafjallajökull.]

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The Next Icelandic Volcano Likely to Erupt

A Probability Analysis of the Icelandic Volcano Most Likely to Erupt Next

The pattern of seismicity in Iceland has remained almost unchanged from two days ago, while the eruption at Eyjafjallajökull has become less explosive.

Loads of magma seem to be flowing under the land of Ice and Fire [Iceland,] but where is it all going?

In Iceland’s Bárdarbunga May Be Erupting posted on April 20,2010, Fire Earth Moderators said they believed Iceland’s Bárdarbunga May Be Erupting or is about to Erupt.

Seismic events occurring between Apr 18 – 20,2010

Source: Iceland Met Office. © Veðurstofa Íslands

Seismic events occurring between Apr 20 – 22,2010

Source: Iceland Met Office. © Veðurstofa Íslands

The moderators have now allocated the following probabilities of eruption to each of the volcanoes/volcano groups previously listed:

1. Probability of a second Icelandic volcano erupting this year: > 80 percent
2. Kolbeinsey ridge (Last erupted: 1999) or a new submarine fissure in its vicinity – probability of eruption: 80 percent
   
3. Krafla (1984)/ Theistareykjarbunga (< 1000 BC)/ Tjörnes fracture zone (1868) – probability of eruption: 52percent
4. Askja (1961) – probability of eruption: 66 percent
5. Bárðarbunga (1903) and neighboring Grímsvötn (2004) – probability of eruption: 84 percent
6. Grímsnes (> 3500 BC) – 40 percent
   
7. Reykjanes (1879) – 50 percent
   
8. Eyjafjallajökull – probability that the current round of eruption would last more than 30 days: 34 percent
   
9. Katla – probability of eruption: 64 percent
10. Other Icelandic volcanoes not mentioned on this list: probability of eruption: less than 40 percent

A Map of Iceland Volcanoes. Click image to enlarge.

Bárdarbunga, one of the most active volcanoes in Iceland, is a massive volcano with a  700-m-deep caldera which lies beneath the NW Vatnajökull icecap.  A fissure eruption at Thjorsarhraun produced about 21 km³ of lava, the largest known Holocene lava flow on the planet.

Powerful eruptions may occur among the volcanoes lying along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The plate tectonics could also translate into increased seismicity along the divergent plate boundary and boundaries of neighboring plates.

Related Links

• Iceland’s Bárdarbunga May Be Erupting
• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption – UPDATE 21 April
• Eyjafjallajökull Eruption Links Page

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