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Nuke Disasters

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures were calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011 (Last UPDATED: June 26, 2011)

  • Japan (880)³
  • United States (865)
  • France (855)
  • Taiwan (850)
  • Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
  • Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
  • Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
  6. The Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

Half-life of some radioactive elements

[NOTE: Half-life is the time taken for a radioactive substance to decay by half.]

  • Cesium-134 ~ 2  years
  • Cesium-137 ~ 30 years
  • Iodine-131 ~ 8 days
  • Plutonium-239 ~ 24,200 years
  • Ruthenium-103 ~ 39 days [Ruthenium is a fission product of uranium-235.]
  • Ruthenium-106 ~ 374 days
  • Strontium-90 ~ 28.85 years  [Strontium-90 is a product of nuclear fission and is found in large amounts in spent nuclear fuel and in radioactive waste from nuclear reactors.]
  • Uranium-234 ~  246,000 years
  • Uranium-235 ~ 703.8  million years
  • Uranium-238  ~ 4.468 billion years

What is a lethal dose of radiation from a single Exposure?

Studies of the 1945 atomic bombing at Hiroshima and Nagasaki show that 100 percent of victims whose bodies were exposed to 600,000 millirems (6,000 mSv) died from radiation. About 50 percent of victims who received  450,000 millirems (4,500 mSv) of radiation also died.

(Note: Rem is a unit of ionizing radiation equal to the amount that produces the same damage to humans as one roentgen of high-voltage x-rays.  Source: MIT)

1 rem = 10 mSv  (1 Sv = 100 rem)

Background Radiation in millirems per year (mrem/yr)

  • Average background radiation (US):  300
  • Higher altitudes (eg. Denver): 400

“Safe Levels” of Radiation (U.S.)

Limits above natural background radiation levels (average 300 millirems per year) and medical radiation:

  • Occupation Limit: Maximum of 5,000  (the limit for a worker using radiation)
  • Average Natural Background: 300

[Note: Lifetime cumulative exposure should be limited to a person’s age multiplied by 1,000 millirems, e.g., a 70-year-old person, 70,000 millirems.]

Adults

  • Max single dose for an adult: 3,000
  • Annual total dose: 5,000

Under 18

  • Max single dose for a person aged under 18 years: 300 millirems (whole body equivalent)
  • Annual total exposure: 500

Fetal Exposure

  • Maximum limit for fetal exposure during gestation period:  50 millirems per month above background levels

Medical

  • Single Chest X-ray (the whole body equivalent): 2 millirem

Air Travel

  • Coast-to-coast US round trip flight: 12 millirems

Related Links

Chernobyl

2 Responses to “Nuke Disasters”

  1. Tom D. said

    February 4, 2018 at 8:23 am

    Extremely High Radiation Detected at Fukushima Nuke Plant, Japan

    TEPCO, the operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi NPP has released the results of its latest probe of the site on Thursday, NHK reported.

    “A remote-controlled inspection of the Unit 2 reactor containment vessel last month detected a maximum of 8 sieverts per hour (Sv/h) of radiation.”

    Exposure to such level of radiation for about an hour would be fatal.

    Officials said the “radiation reading was taken near what appeared to be fuel debris, the term used to describe a mixture of molten fuel and broken interior parts.”

    “The finding shows that nearly 7 years after the meltdowns, radiation levels remain so high that they present a major challenge to decommissioning work.

    “During the probe, 42 sieverts per hour of radiation was also detected outside the foundations of the reactor.”

    [Just over a year ago, TEPCO technicians discovered mind-bugling radiation levels of about 530 Sv/h inside the reactor, capable of “deep-frying” a human in just seconds.]

    Read more at https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20180201_40/

    Reply

  2. ruth said

    October 1, 2014 at 2:52 pm

    (Reuters) – Dominion Virginia Power has discovered two damaged nuclear fuel rods at its North Anna power plant, 90 miles (140 km) southwest of Washington, and has shut it down, a spokesman said on Tuesday.

    Dominion Virginia Power, a unit of Dominion Resources Inc, said it discovered the rods during a routine refueling at the 34-year-old power plant northwest of Richmond.

    The company shut down the reactor on Sept. 7 and reported the incident to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission on Sept. 17.

    http://newyork.cbslocal.com/
    WATERFORD, Conn. (CBSNewYork/AP) — Connecticut environmental officials are taking a closer look at the impact of more than 2 billion gallons of heated water discharged each day into Long Island Sound from Connecticut’s nuclear plant.

    The water, which is discharged after cooling the nuclear reactors at the Millstone Power Station, creates a warm current that some fishermen say has the beneficial effect of attracting flounder and other species.

    Reply

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