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Archive for the ‘Laurence forecast track’ Category

UPDATE 2: Tropical Cyclone Laurence (06S)

Posted by feww on December 16, 2009

TC Laurence Intensifies to 167 km Sustained Winds

Active Tropical Cyclone in Southern Hemisphere

  • Date Time: December 16 09:00 UTC
  • Approximate Position: 16.3ºS, 124.2ºE
  • Location:  Located approximately 440 nmi northeast of Port Hedland, Australia
  • Movement: Has been tracking 185 degrees  at 08  knots during  the past six hours.
  • Max Sustained Winds:  075 knots, Gusts 090 knots [compared with winds of 35 kt and gusts of 45 kt 48 hrs ago; and 075 kt,   24 hors ago]
  • Max Significant Wave Heights:  Laurence is now located over land.

Based on the current forecast track, the system is now expected to move further inland and dissipate within the next 60- 72 hours. ALL but two models agree.

Top Left: NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite captured this image of Laurence’s rainfall on Dec. 14 at 5:29 p.m. ET (2329 UTC). TRMM revealed a well defined center of circulation in Laurence with areas of heavy rain (red) up to 2 inches per hour. Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

Top Right: NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite 3-D image shows thunderstorm tops reaching about 9.3 miles high in various sides of Cyclone Laurence (red). The red areas also indicate rainfall at about 2 inches per hour. Credit: Hal Pierce.


Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence. AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY/ TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH/ TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP/  Issued at 2:41 pm WST Wednesday 16 December 2009. Image may be subject to copyright. Click on images to enlarge.

Remarks by BOM:

  • Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence is a small but very intense tropical cyclone having VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 260 km/h .
  • Laurence is expected to weaken overnight IF it  moves  in a generally southerly direction towards Derby.
  • HEAVY RAIN is expected to continue over the north and west Kimberley. Daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are possible near the coast with totals decreasing further inland.

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