Global Tectonics Warning – March 12

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:

NEXT MAJOR TECTONICS EVENT COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.

Based on their Earth Model, FEWW Moderators believe the world’s next catastrophic tectonics event could occur in western United States with a probability of 0.74.

Notes:

1. The definition for western United States includes offshore west cost of the country.

2. ‘Tectonics event’ includes earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other geological events.

3. ‘Internet Prophets’ may not reprint forecasts made by FIRE-EARTH without quoting the source.

Related Links:

• US Volcanoes: Blasts from the Past?
• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Large Earthquakes Strike South Pacific

Large Earthquakes Measuring Up to 8.2 Mw Strike Vanuatu, Santa Cruz Islands

FEWW had forecast up to 3 additional large quakes in the PRF

Large earthquake measuring up to 8.2 Mw struck Vanuatu region, south of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, on Wednesday, October 7, 2009 at 22:03 UTC  immediately followed by another shock measuring up to 8.1 Mw, and at least seven aftershocks, with the largest two measuring up to 7.6 Mw and 6.3 Mw respectively.

• FEWW Moderators believe many more massive aftershocks could occur in the region.
  

• Megaquakes should also be expected in this and other regions.
  

10-degree Map Centered at 15°S,165°E

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

Earthquake Details

• Magnitude:  8.2 as estimated by FEWW  [downgraded by USGS/EHP to M7.8]
• Date-Time:
  • Wednesday, October 07, 2009 at 22:03:15 UTC
  • Thursday, October 08, 2009 at 09:03:15 AM at epicenter
• Location: 13.052°S, 166.187°E
• Depth:  35 km (21.7 miles)
• Region: VANUATU
• Distances:
  • 260 km (160 miles) S of Lata, Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Isl.
  • 295 km (180 miles) NNW of Luganville, Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
  • 785 km (490 miles) ESE of HONIARA, Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands
  • 2100 km (1310 miles) NE of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7.6 km (4.7 miles); depth fixed by location program
• Parameters NST=169, Nph=169, Dmin=>999 km, Rmss=1.32 sec, Gp= 50°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: us2009mlcf

Tsunami Warning

NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center said “a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.”

NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI had issued a tsunami watch which was later canceled with the following evaluation:

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA THERE IS NO DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE STATE OF HAWAII. THEREFORE THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR HAWAII IS CANCELED.

HOWEVER, SOME COASTAL AREAS IN HAWAII COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL NON-DESTRUCTIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGES AND STRONG OR UNUSUAL CURRENTS LASTING UP TO SEVERAL HOURS. THE ESTIMATED TIME SUCH EFFECTS MIGHT BEGIN IS 0650 PM HST WED 07 OCT 2009

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MESSAGE ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

FEWW Forecast the seismic events

• Up to 3 More Large EQs Could Strike the Pacific Ring of Fire in 2009

• Deadly Earthquake Strikes Java, Indonesia
• Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 5.5 +

Earthquakes: Human Enhanced Disasters – UPDATE 2 Oct 2009

Sumatra Double Earthquakes

FEWW Moderators believe it’s highly probable that another 2 or more strong to powerful quakes could strike the region in the coming days. Padang and other coastal towns in Sumatra and Java must also prepare for a possible tsunami.

At least 1,200 bodies have been recovered following widespread damage after a magnitude 7.9 quake  struck southern Sumatra, Indonesia, on Wednesday, according to the officials.

The Death Toll Could Reach Many Thousands

There are no reports of deaths from the 6.8 magnitude quake that struck southern Sumatra  on Thursday. However. a local radio station reported that a dozen 12 people had been injured and up to 75 building damaged in  the town of Jambi.

“People are trapped and screaming for help but they are below huge slabs which will take heavy equipment to move,” an aid worker said.

“I saw dozens of the biggest buildings collapsed in town. Most of the damage is concentrated in the commercial center market, which was fully packed,” he said.

Images that will be repeated throughout the world, again, and again

Residents stand near the bodies of earthquake victims at a hospital in Padang on Indonesia’s Sumatra
island October 1, 2009.  REUTERS/Muhammad Fitrah/Singgalang Newspaper

Regional Economy

West Sumatra, a major producer of crude palm oil, is also affected economically.

Indonesia’s finance minister Sri Mulyani said: “This region has been damaged seriously, including its infrastructure,” adding that her government has allocated $25 million over two month for emergency operations.

Related Links:

• Another Strong Quake Hits Sumatra
• Disaster Update: Indonesia Quake

• Powerful Earthquake Strikes Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
• Deadly Earthquake Strikes Java, Indonesia
• Magnitude 8.3 Quake Strikes Samoa Islands Region
• The Largest Earthquake
• Earthquakes [Main Index Page]

• Reuters Photo Gallery