Why Are ‘Scientists’ Deferring Impacts of Global Catastrophes?
Sea level rise projections for 22nd Century sideline impacts of current climatic catastrophes and make them seem like someone else’s problem!
Why don’t scientists report the short term impact of the climate change? What’s happening now? What’s going to happen next year, in 2 years, 3 years and 5 years from now?
Like them or not, you can’t live without them. Polar bears are ‘canaries in ice’; they tell you how much time you have left. Photo Credit: Dan Crosbie
Perhaps they have the best of intentions. Perhaps they don’t! Perhaps they want to give the governments a last chance to act. But that’s not the job of scientists.
In February 2005 our colleagues at MSRB postulated that the ‘Point of No Return’ would be reached by about June 2006.
Unless global energy consumption is reduced rapidly—by mid 2006—to levels below 60EJ/year (6E+19 joules/year), the runaway positive feedback loops that are destroying Earth’s ecosystems including ozone holes, global heating, extreme climatic events, toxic pollution, resources depletion, unethical conduct, war, and disease pandemics would reach the point of no return, overwhelm our life support systems and render most of our population centers uninhabitable by as early as 2015, possibly earlier, according to our dynamic energy models.
And argued:
Failure to rein back global energy consumption to levels below 60 exajoules by June 2006 would render the concept of sustainable management redundant (it seems highly unlikely that post industrial civilization would voluntarily sacrifice its perceived privileges and values in favor of sustaining life on Earth).
Then in November 2007 colleagues at EDRO revealed that, based on their models, about 20 percent of the world cities could collapse partially or completely by as early as 2012, citing a list of probable mechanism that would accelerate the collapse.
[About 20 percent of the] world’s cities [could] collapse completely or partially by or before 2012 in the first wave of collapse. The collapse would be caused by a combination of failing ecosystems, human-enhanced environmental catastrophes; failing infrastructure; food, water and fuel shortages; infectious disease; war, civil conflict and other dynamics. Following the first phase of collapse, massive waves of human migration from the affected areas create a domino effect that causes the collapse of the remaining population centers shortly after.
Now 26 ‘experts’ who have authored a new report [Update] called The Copenhagen Diagnosis have urged world governments to cap rising greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 or 2020 [thanks for the 5-year grace period] to avoid the deadliest impacts of climate change. Ironically, many of these authors were on the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and they in 2007 effectively downplayed the sea level rises, limiting the upcoming disaster to between 18 cm and 59 cm (7-24 inches) by 2100 [they were completely surprised when melting of Greenland and Antarctica ice accelerated.]
Current sea-level rise underestimated: Satellites show recent global average sea-level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) to be ~80% above past IPCC predictions. This acceleration in sea-level rise is consistent with a doubling in contribution from melting of glaciers, ice caps, and the Greenland and West-Antarctic ice-sheets. —The Copenhagen Diagnosis
In a joint statement the group citing catastrophic factors including the Arctic sea ice retreat in summer and accelerated melting of Greenland ice sheets and Antarctica said:
Climate change is accelerating beyond expectations.
Richard C. J. Somerville, Professor Emeritus at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, and a Coordinating Lead Author of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report said:
Carbon dioxide emissions cannot be allowed to continue to rise if humanity intends to limit the risk of unacceptable climate change.
For heaven’s sake, give it to them straight: QUANTIFY!
Arguably the most prominent member of the group Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Professor of Theoretical Physics and Director of the Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany, Chair of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) and a longstanding member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said:
This is a final scientific call for the climate negotiators from 192 countries who must embark on the climate protection train in Copenhagen.
The report doesn’t tell us what the members think about the short term impact of climate change. Colleagues at EDRO do! In a recent conversation
EDRO estimated that climate change could directly affect about half the population in the UK in the next 3 to 5 years.
Related Links:
- ‘Experts’ surprised at coastal ice thinning
- Thought for the Day: A 2009 Forecast
- The Copenhagen Diagnosis
- That’s Mars’ Sister!
The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009: Updating the world on the Latest Climate
- Full report: High resolution PDF (23.3 MB)
- Full report: Low resolution PDF (3.3 MB)
- Figures: PDF (4.4 MB) – PPT (17.2 MB)
Fire Earth 