Hurricane Ike: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp? [Update 9/12]

Ike has a 78 percent chance of strengthening to a major hurricane before landfall with sustained winds of at least 178km/hr (111mph). ~ FEWW Forecast.

Ike the angry genie is out of the oil lamp!

Targeting Texas for landfall, perhaps Ike  won’t grant too many wishes now without the Monkey’s Paw!

Ike is a very large tropical cyclone. Its hurricane force winds extend outward about 200 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend about 450 km, covering an area of about 640,000 sq km.

Ike’s latest satellite images show a giant clump of white clouds, together with its outer bands, covering most of the 1.6 million sq km area of Gulf of Mexico basin.

Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.12 at 08:45UTC. Centerpoint Latitude: 26:54:30N Longitude: 91:31:08W.

Data Elements: Hurricane Ike is located southeast of Galveston, Texas. This system is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 MPH. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 MPH. Hurricane Ike is a large and powerful storm, quite capable of strengthening before landfall early Saturday.
Observation Device: GOES-12 4 km infrared imagery.
Visualization Date: September 12, 2008 07:37:00 (Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP)

GOES Floater (Updated Image) – Unenhanced – IR CH4 – Date and Time: As indicated on the updated image. Credit NOAA/NHC

Note: As of September 12 – 13:45UTC Image Update, Ike appears to have redeveloped the hurricane eye.

Ike is expected to strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall with sustained wind speeds of at least 178 km/hr, and in all probability the forecast would prove accurate.

However, if Ike fails to strengthen before landfall, it can still cause substantial damage by dumping large amounts of rain, flooding low-lying coastal areas, blowing down trees and road signs, destroying roof structures, doors, windows, curtain walls and mobile homes.

Ike Begins Battering Gulf Coast. A monstrously large, extremely dangerous Hurricane Ike is already affecting the Gulf Coast. NASA’s Aqua spacecraft took this infrared image early Sept. 12. (Sept. 12). Credit: NASA/JPL

A wave breaks over a street sign as Hurricane Ike approaches Galveston, Texas September 12, 2008. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi. Image may be subject to copyright.

The storm surge of the nameless hurricane reduced much of Galveston to rubble – and left thousands dead. (AP photo)- Source

100 mph plus winds expected along the upper-Texas coast by midnight, weather should deteriorate earlier (NOAA)

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Avila
• Date and Time: Sept 12, 2008 at 15:00UTC

• Hurricane Watch Area: from Morgan City Louisiana to Baffin Bay, Texas.  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast in the warning area later Friday.

• Tropical Storm Warning Area: From south of Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield Texas.  A tropical storm warning is also in effect from east of Morgan City to the Mississippi-Alabama border, including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

• Current Location: The center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 27.2 north, longitude 92.6 west or about 480 km east of Corpus Christi, Texas and about 320 km southeast of Galveston Texas.

• Category and Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds remain near 165 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is a Category 2A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (cat 2 on Saffir-Simpson scale), but could reach the coast as a Category Three, major hurricane.  Stronger winds especially in gusts are likely on high rise buildings.

• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest near 19 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a turn toward the north expected on Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Ike will be very near the upper Texas coast by late Friday or early Saturday. However, because Ike is a very large tropical cyclone, weather will begin to deteriorate along the coastline soon.

• Extent: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 195 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 445 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 954 mb (28.17 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding of up to 6 meters (20 feet) with a few spots to about 8 meters (25 feet) above normal tide along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the east of where the center of Ike makes landfall. The surge extends a greater than usual distance from the center due to the large size of the cyclone. Water levels have already risen by more than 1.5 meter (5 feet) along much of the northwestern gulf coast.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 12 to 25 cm (5 to 10 inches) over eastern Texas and extreme southwestern Louisiana, with isolated amounts of 38 cm (15 inches) possible.

• Isolated tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of southern Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi.  Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas.