Canada’s Ice Shelves Lose Quarter of their Cover

Canada’s Ice Shelves Disappearing Much Faster than Previously Thought

The Markham Ice Shelf break-up animated using cloud-free MODIS images. The animation shows an area that is approximately 40 km wide. MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Animation courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.

[Kudos to Derek Mueller for his plain, yet revealing animations. See  below also for Serson Ice Shelf break-up and Ward Hunt Ice Shelf break-up animations.]

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Markham Ice Shelf, a massive 50 square km ice shelf, almost the land size of Manhattan Island, in Canada’s northern Arctic broke away in August. The remaining shelves are shrinking at a “massive and disturbing” rate, as a result of of accelerating climate change, scientists reported.

The Markham Ice Shelf, one of just five remaining ice shelves in the Canadian Arctic, calved from Ellesmere Island in early August. Additionally, two other large chunks measuring a total of about 122 square km calved from Serson Ice Shelf, reducing its size by nearly two-thirds.

Chunk of ice are drifting away after calving from the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf off the north coast of Ellesmere Island in Canada’s far north. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The changes … were massive and disturbing,” said Warwick Vincent, at Laval University in Quebec.

Vincent’s team have recorded peak temperatures of about  20 degrees Celsius (°C), some 12 degrees (250%) higher than the average of about 8°C. The team’s estimate that the shelves would lose 22 square km of ice this summer proved to be highly optimistic. The actual figure was closer to 220 square km—ten times higher than their estimate.

Before

A MODIS image of the Markham Ice Shelf (2006 extent outlined in red) on July 28, 2008 prior to calving. Note the open water in Markham Fiord south of the ice shelf. MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Map courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.

After

A MODIS image of Markham Fiord on August 12, 2008 following the loss of the Markham Ice Shelf (2006 extent outlined in red). MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Map courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.

The Serson Ice Shelf break-up animated using cloud-free MODIS images. The animation shows an area that is approximately 80 km wide. MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Animation courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.

Scientists believe that global warming is increasing the temperatures in the Arctic far faster than the global average in the last 30 years.

“These substantial calving events underscore the rapidity of changes taking place in the Arctic,” said Derek Mueller, a specialist at Trent University in Ontario.

Markham Fiord in August 2008 after the Markham Ice Shelf broke away. Compare with the photograph above. Photo courtesy of Denis Sarrazin, Laval University.

“These changes are irreversible under the present climate and indicate that the environmental conditions that have kept these ice shelves in balance for thousands of years are no longer present,” he said.

The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf break-up animated using cloud-free MODIS images. The animation shows an area that is approximately 75 km wide. NB: The events displayed here were already widely reported at the end of July. MODIS image from the Rapid Response Project at NASA/GSFC. Animation courtesy Derek Mueller, Trent University.
According to Mueller a totl of about 215 square km of ice was lost from the shelves along Ellesmere Island this summer.

“Reduced sea ice conditions and unusually high air temperatures have facilitated the ice shelf losses,” said Luke Copland of the University of Ottawa.

“Extensive new cracks across remaining parts of the largest remaining ice shelf, the Ward Hunt, mean that it will continue to disintegrate in the coming years,” he said.

Calving of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf into Disraeli Fiord during August 2008. Photo courtesy of Denis Sarrazin, ArcticNet/Centre d’Etudes Nordiques.

Ellesmere Island previously home to a single giant ice shelf measuring about 10,000 square km, now has four very small shelves covering only about 800 square km—less than a tenth of the original size!

Related News Links:

• Trent’s Polar Expert Reports Massive Ice Shelf Loss During Summer of 2008

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TSs Hannah, Ike and Josephine

Latest: Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Photos and Videos

Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

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Messy Hannah looks like a big baby left alone with a bowl of milk chocolate mix on the kitchen table!

Tropical Storm Front Update 9-3

L to R: Gustav (the ‘Fake Hurricane’), TS Hannah, TS Ike, TS Josephine    (Still Image)  – NOAA

Tropical Atlantic Imagery – GOES East  – RGB Image – (Updated) – NOAA/SSD

Brief Update:

Gustav (The ‘Ghost Hurricane’)

GUSTAV is now a tropical depression located [Sep 2 at 21:00 UTC] near latitude 33.0 north, longitude 93.9 west, or about 56 km north of Shreveport Louisiana moving slowly into the ArkLaTex region.

Storm total rainfalls are expected to be five to ten inches with isolated maximum of fifteen inches over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.  Four to six inches with a maximum of eight inches is expected over portions of Missouri and west central to northern Illinois.  Two to four inches of rain is
possible over far eastern Oklahoma. – Forecaster Petersen, NHC

TS Hannah

Tropical Storm Hanna is seen southeast of Florida in this satellite image on September 2, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Maximum sustained winds: 105 km/h

Sep 3 – 03:00 UTC – The center of TS Hanna was located near latitude 20.5 north, longitude 72.4 west or 105 km southeast of Great Inagua Island  and about 720 km southeast of Nassau.

[Great Inagua is the third largest island in the Bahamas at 1550 km² located about 92 km northwest of eastern tip of Cuba.]

Hanna has been almost stationary in  the past few hours. However, a north or northwestward motion is expected to begin early on Wednesday followed by a northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, Hanna will be moving across the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and near or over the central Bahamas Wednesday and Wednesday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. – Forecaster: Brown/Avila

The Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic have experienced substantial downpours.

In Haiti, at least 25 people were killed by severe flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains inundated the northern port city of Gonaives.

“The city is flooded and there are parts where the water gets to 2 meters,” said an official. “A lot of people have been climbing onto the tops of their houses since last night to escape the flooding.”

Reuters report: Storms swirl in Atlantic, deadly floods hit Haiti

TS Ike

Date: Sep 3, 2008
Time: 09:00UTC
Location: TS Ike was located by NHC near latitude 20.6 north, longitude 49.6 west or about 1340 km east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Direction: Ike is moving west-northwestward and a gradual turn toward the west is expected over the next 48 hours
Speed: About 30 km/hr and
Wind Speed: Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 100 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is forecast to
Become a hurricane later today, and continue to strengthen over the next 48 hours.
Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure: 996mb (29.41 inches)

TS Josephine

Date: Sep 3, 2008
Time: 09:00UTC
Location: The center of tropical storm Josephine was located by NHC near latitude 13.7 north, longitude 27.5 west or about 355 km west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Direction: Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest and is expected to continue in that direction for the next 48 hours.
Speed: About 20 km/hr
Wind Speed: Sustained winds are about 95 km/hr with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours.
Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inches)
More updates will follow …

If Hannah manages to organize herself, the conditions are conducive to a major hurricane, at least a Category 4A hurricane, according to FEWW model.

FEWW New Hurricane Scale

FEWW New Hurricane Scale Makes Hurricane Classification More Meaningful!

FEWW’s New Hurricane Scale is based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and provides a more detailed definition of hurricane forces.

Size Description

To make the classification of tropical cyclones even more descriptive, FIRE-EARTH recommends the addition of following suffixes for storm size to denote the category:

• Midget hurricanes (m). With the average radius from the storm’s center of circulation to its outermost closed isobar (ROCI) in four quadrants measuring less than two degrees of latitude [222.2 km or 138.1 miles.]

• Small. Small Hurricanes (s).  ROCI measuring between 2 and 3 degrees of latitude [222km< ROCI< 333km]
• Regular. Average Hurricanes (r). ROCI measuring between 3 and 6 degrees of latitude [333km< ROCI< 667km]
• Large. Large Hurricanes (g). ROCI of between 6 and 8 degrees of latitude [667km< ROCI< 889km]
• Monster. Very Large Hurricanes (x). ROCI of larger than 8 degrees of latitude [ROCI> 889km]

Example: Hurricane GRETA, with ROCI of 960km, the largest ever recorded Atlantic hurricane, which reached a maximum sustained winds of about 225km/h on November 5, 1956 may be represented as a Monster hurricane, or 4Ax category hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale.