Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster – Oil Leak Estimate

How Much Oil is Leaking?

The short answer: LOTS!

Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster. A freeze frame of the oil leak video supplied by the BP showing only one of at least two separate oil leaks. Image may be subject to copyright.

As to whether the leak is closer to 5,000 barrels per day (bpd) or 25,000 bpd, here’s an estimate we prepared earlier:

• Diameter of the ruptured pipe seen gushing oil on BP video: 53cm (21 inches)
• Cross-sectional area of the pipe: 2,233cm²
• Fire-Earth estimate of oil and gas flow:  50cm/sec [Simplified model of crude leak calculates the flow rate as the height of a cylinder filled every second.]
• Volume of crude oil and natural gases released: 111,672cm³s^-1
  
• Number of seconds in each day: 86, 400 sec
  
• Crude oil escaping from the pipe as a percentage of all materials: 90 percent [Fire-Earth estimate]
• Volume of oil escaping into GOM: 8 million liters per day (rounded down to nearest million)
  • Amount of oil escaped: 2 million U.S. Gallons per day (rounded down to nearest million), or 50,000bpd
  • Escaped oil calculated at a generous margin of error of 50 percent:  25,000bpd

NOTES:

1. According to earlier reports  at least two separate leaks remain on seafloor the second of which is not shown on the BP video.
2. A reader who claimed to be an oil industry insider contacted one of the blog Moderators saying diameter of the drill pipe that enters top of the well is 6 inches (15cm). That means the oil flows nearly 4 times faster in the drill pipe than it does in the 21-inch riser-pipe.  It does NOT affect Fire-Earth estimate significantly.

Next Major Oil Disaster?

Probability of another major disaster occurring in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico between now and December 2011 : >90 percent [Fire-Earth Forecast]

For additional details see Gulf of Mexico: A Waiting Disaster and https://feww.wordpress.com/2010/05/01/fire-earth-forecasts-10-major-oil-spills-to-end-2011/

Related Links:

• Gulf of Mexico: A Waiting Disaster
• Oil Disasters [Index Page includes links to other oil spills, news and information]

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