VOLCANIC HAZARD
MAYON VOLCANO
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 070, 09, 08, 07
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Mayon in high state of unrest, explosive eruption possible
Thousands of people have been evacuated from around the foot Mt Mayon, Philippines’ most active volcano, as the crater glow became observable indicating presence of molten lava and superheated volcanic gases.
PHIVOLCS released the following bulletins earlier:
MAYON VOLCANO BULLETIN 16 September 2014 8:00 A.M.
Mayon Volcano’s (13.2500°N, 123.6833°E) seismic network recorded thirty-two (32) volcanic earthquakes and seventy-two (72) rock fall events during the past 24-hour observation period. Intensity III (bright) crater glow was visible last night, although rain clouds prevented visual observation of the crater during the day. Rolling incandescent rockfall within the uppermost reaches of the Bonga Gully last night indicates that the summit lava dome is breaching the crater in its southeastern side. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) flux was measured at an average of 611 tonnes/day on 02 September 2014. Ground deformation data showed inflationary changes in the edifice from February 2014 based on precise leveling surveys on the 3rd week of August 2014, and edifice inflation from January 2012 baselines based on continuous tilt measurement. All the above data indicate that the volcano is exhibiting relatively high unrest due to the movement of potentially eruptible magma.
Mayon Volcano’s alert status has been raised to Alert Level 3. This means that magma is at the crater and that hazardous eruption is possible within weeks. It is recommended that the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) around the volcano and the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) on the southeastern flank be enforced due to the danger of rock falls, landslides and sudden explosions or dome collapse that may generate hazardous volcanic flows. PHIVOLCS maintains close monitoring of Mayon Volcano and any new development will be communicated to all concerned stakeholders.
NOTICE OF INCREASE TO ALERT LEVEL 3:
In the past several hours, a noticeable escalation of unrest was recorded by the Mayon Volcano monitoring network. Since 5:00 AM to 8:00 PM today, 39 rockfall events that are ascribed to incipient breaching of the growing summit lava dome across the southeastern crater rim, and 32 low frequency volcanic earthquakes that indicate magma intrusion and/or volcanic gas activity, have been detected. Crater glow has become observable, indicating incandescence of the crater from molten lava and hot volcanic gas.
In view thereof, PHIVOLCS-DOST is now raising the alert status of Mayon Volcano from Alert Level 2 to Alert Level 3. This means that Mayon is exhibiting relatively high unrest and that magma is at the crater and that hazardous eruption is possible within weeks. It is therefore recommended that the 6-km radius Permanent Danger Zone (PDZ) around the volcano and the 7-km Extended Danger Zone (EDZ) on the southeastern flank be enforced due to the danger of rockfalls, landslides and sudden explosions or dome collapse that may generate hazardous volcanic flows. PHIVOLCS maintains close monitoring of Mayon Volcano and any new development will be communicated to all concerned stakeholders.
Significant Earthquakes
Iceland has been rattled by 7 significant quakes measuring between magnitudes 4.6 and 5.3Mw since September 10.
- The largest quake measured 5.3Mw, which occurred 108km WNW of Hofn at depth of 10.0 km on 2014-09-15 at 08:05:02 UTC.
Sweden registered a rare earthquake measuring 4.7Mw, which struck about 59km (37mi) N of Mora, said USGS/EHP.
- The quake occurred at a depth of about 14.3km (8.9mi), at 13:08UTC on September 15, 2014.
Oklahomans were rattled by at least 4 earthquakes over the last 24 hours. The quakes measured between magnitudes 2.7 and 4.0Mw.
- The largest quake measuring 4.0Mw occurred about 6km S of Guthrie, Oklahoma at a depth of 4.4 km on September 15 at 20:08UTC.
Japan recorded a magnitude 5.6 shock striking Ibaraki Prefecture about 44km (27mi) NNE of Tokyo, which scared the living daylight out of millions of local kamikazes.
- The quake registered 5- (Five Minus) on the local 7-point seismic scale.
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FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan
FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California seismicity to protest Internet censorship, Google’s manipulation of information, theft of FIRE-EARTH intellectual property and other reasons, as previously stated.
The Team has suspended its research also on Japan seismicity due to resurgence of militarism in Japan and other reasons, as previously stated.
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