El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 17 August 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C [0.9°C] above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009

• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009
• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season