Mass Evacuations Ordered as Cyclonic Storm LEHAR Approaches India

UPDATE @ 13:00UTC – LEHAR has weakened to a tropical depression with winds of about 50km/h, bringing moderate rains as it made landfall near the city of Machilipatnam, officials said. NO significant damage expected.

Thousands in low-lying coastal areas evacuated as Cyclone LEHAR raced toward east India

LEHAR [“wave” in Hindi,] which was downgraded from its earlier classification as a “very severe” cyclone to cyclonic storm, was packing sustained winds of about 75km/h, gusting to about 95km/h, as of 02:30UTC on Thursday, November 28, 2013.

“We remain geared to evacuate around 250,000 people in seven districts as per our earlier plans,” said the  vice chairman of India’s disaster management agency on Wednesday. “The evacuation will begin later tonight or even early tomorrow morning in some places based on local conditions, including the beginning of rainfall.”

Cyclonic Storm LEHAR – Water Vapor [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 01:30UTC on November 28, 2013. Original Image Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Earlier Image recorded at 05:30UTC on November 27, 2013.

LEHAR – Water Vapor [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 05:30UTC on November 27, 2013. Original Image Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

LEHAR, the third significant storm to hit east India since October, is expected to cause more damage than Cyclone HELEN.

Cyclone HELEN struck the Andhra Pradesh coast last Friday, forcing thousands of evacuations, killing at least six people and causing significant  damage to crops.

In October, Cyclone PHAILIN destroyed or damaged more than 500,000 mud houses, killing dozens of people, ruining 1.3 million hectares of crops and leaving more than 12 million homeless.

IMD Bulletin No.: BOB07/2013/34 [Dated: 28-11-2013 @ 5;00 IST]

The cyclonic storm ‘LEHAR’ over westcentral Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestward with a speed of 15kmph during past six hrs and lay centred at 02:30 hours IST of today, the 28th November 2013 over the westcentral Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.0ºN and longitude 83.5ºE, about 280 km east-southeast of Machillipatnam and 250 km south-southeast of Kakinada. It would move west-northwestwards, weaken further and cross Andhra Pradesh coast near Machillipatnam as a deep depression around today, the 28th November afternoon.

This post will be updated throughout the day …

 Related Links

• LEHAR Closing in on Indian Coast November 27, 2013
• Cyclonic Storm LEHAR Strikes Andaman Islands November 25, 2013
• Tropical Cyclone HELEN Striking East India Coast November 21, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

LEHAR Closing in on Indian Coast

LEHAR Intensifies to a Strong Cat. 1  Storm Force

Cyclone LEHAR was packing sustained winds of about 140km/h, gusting to 170km/h, as of 06:00UTC, November 27, 2013.

LEHAR was located about 910km ESE (114 degrees) of Hyderabad, India tracking WNW (295 degrees) at about 20km/h, as of as of 06:00UTC, November 27, 2013. [Estimate is based on FIRE-EARTH Models, with data supplied from various satellites.]

LEHAR – Water Vapor [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 05:30UTC on November 27, 2013. Original Image Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

The maximum significant wave height generated by the storm is currently about 9 meters.

The storm could intensify marginally before making landfall. The storm surge, rainfall and winds associated with LEHAR could cause significant damage, especially in low lying areas.

LEHAR has been designated as a “very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS)” by India’s Meteorological Department (IMD), and is forecast to make landfall on the Andhra Pradesh coast near Machillipatnam about 12:00pm on Thursday, November 28, 2013.

LEHAR’s Projected Path according to IDM.

Cyclones PHAILIN and HELEN

In October, Cyclone PHAILIN destroyed or damaged more than 500,000 mud houses, killing dozens of people and ruining 1.3 million hectares of crops.

Cyclone HELEN struck the Andhra Pradesh coast last Friday, forcing thousands of  evacuations, killing six people and  causing significant  damage to crops.

LEHAR would be considerably stronger than HELEN on landfall.

This post will be updated throughout the day …

 Related Links

• Cyclonic Storm LEHAR Strikes Andaman Islands November 25, 2013
• Tropical Cyclone HELEN Striking East India Coast November 21, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Cyclonic Storm LEHAR Strikes Andaman Islands

LEHAR strikes Andaman Islands with winds of about 110kmph gusting to 140kmph

The cyclone is expected to dump more than 25cm of rain over Andaman and Nicobar Islands en route to Andhra Pradesh coast, east India.

LEHAR is forecast to strike Andhra Pradesh state, India’s east-central coastline on the Bay of Bengal, near 18.3N, 84.1E on November 28.

Cyclonic Storm LEHAR. VI/INFRARED [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] satellite image recorded at 00:30UTC on November 25, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Cyclonic Storm LEHAR. VI/INFRARED [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] satellite image recorded at 11:30UTC on November 25, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

 LEHAR V. PHAILIN

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN. VIS/IR Satellite Image recorded at 01:30UTC on October 11, 2013. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC. FIRE-EARTH Enhancement.

LEHAR Projected Path Superimposed on SST Schematic in Bay of Bengal. Timed at 11:30UTC on November 25, 2013. CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

On Friday, November 22, Cyclone HELEN struck coastal  Andhra Prades, killing at least 6 people, destroying or damaging about 170,000 hectares of crops, and forcingthe authorities to evacuate 25,000 people.

In October, Cyclone PHAILIN destroyed or damaged more than 500,000 mud houses, killing dozens of people and ruining 1.3 million hectares of crops.

Point of No Return

In 2004¹,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

[1. First draft posted by MSRB on Internet on February 26, 2005]

This post will be updated throughout the day …