Posted by feww on November 12, 2009
SI / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(4 November – 10 November 2009)
New activity/Unrest:
Batur, Bali (Indonesia); Galeras, Colombia; Karangetang [Api Siau], Siau I; Mayon, Luzon; Nevado del Huila, Colombia; Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island; Reventador, Ecuador; San Vicente, El Salvador
GVP Volcano News:
OVPDLF reported that on 5 November a vent inside the S part of Piton de la Fournaise’s Dolomieu crater opened, following an intense seismic crisis. Within thirty minutes, a fissure on the upper SE flank propagated E and a second fissure opened on the E flank.
PHIVOLCS reported that on 11 November an explosion from Mayon’ssummit crater ejected incandescent rock fragments seen from nearby areas. Cloud cover prevented observations of an ash plume, however fieldinvestigations after the event revealed ashfall to the SW.—GVP
Ongoing Activity:
Chaitén, Southern Chile; Dukono, Halmahera; Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka; Kilauea, Hawaii; Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia); Koryaksky, Eastern Kamchatka; Rabaul, New Britain; Sakura-jima, Kyushu; Santa María, Guatemala; Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia); Soufrière Hills, Montserrat; Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)
Related Links:
More Links:
FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast
Other Related Links:
Recent Posts on Chaitén:
Posted in FEWW Volcanic Forecast, Volcano Watch, VolcanoWatch Weekly, volcanism, volcanoes | Tagged: Api Siau, Batur, Galeras, Karangetang, Mayon, Piton de la Fournaise’s Dolomieu crater, Reventador, San Vicente | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 11, 2009
Come Have a Drink With Our Pilots: United
United Airlines suspends alleged “drunken” pilot
United Airlines said it has suspended the allegedly drunken pilot who was about to fly the Boeing 767-300, flight UA 949, from London (Heathrow) to Chicago (O’Hare) airport with 124 passengers and 11 crew members on Monday.
United Airlines Boeing 767-300 (N644UA) lands at London Heathrow Airport, England, May 2009. Credit: Adrian Ringstone.
Senior pilot Erwin Vermont Washington, 51, of Lakewood, Colorado, was reportedly arrested on Monday after colleagues realized that he was tipsy. He was reported to the authorities, and was arrested by the airport police after he failed a breath test.
“The departure to Chicago was “imminent”, with 124 passengers on board and 11 members of crew, when police arrived at the airport.” UK’s Daily Telegraph reported.
“The incident is the second time in the past six months that a pilot set to fly from London to Chicago has been arrested for allegedly being drunk.”
United Airlines is the 5th unsafest airline on FEWW Airline Safety List.
Related Links:
Posted in Finnair, KLM, air new zealand, drunken pilots, unsafe airlines list, unsafest airlines | Tagged: Erwin Vermont Washington, flight UA 949, Korean Air, London Chicago flight, United Airlines, United Airlines drunken pilot | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 11, 2009
TC PHYAN Could Cause Substantial Damage to Mumbai Area
Tropical Cyclone Phyan crossed India’s west coast north of Mumbai on Wednesday bringing torrential rains and strong winds to the region. Phyan has weakened due to interaction with land.
TC Phyan (fallen Cherry). METEOSAT-7 IR Enhancement. Stll image – Dated 11 Nov 2009 at 12:00UTC. Source: UW-CIMSS Click image to enlarge and update.
PHYAN Status
As of November 11, 2009 at 15:00 UTC
Position: near 19.9ºN, 73.7ºE
Location: About 74 km (40nm) ENW of Mumbai
Movement: Phyan has been moving NNE at about 26 km/h for the past 6 hrs
Maximum Intensity: 83 km/h (at 12:25 UTC)
Max significant wave heights: 5 m at 12:00 UTC
Phyan should continue moving in N-N-Easterly direction and is expected to dissipate in the next 12 hours due to land interaction and strong vertical wind shear, JTWC said.
Related Links:
Posted in storms, tropical cyclone | Tagged: Cyclone Phyan, Mumbai, TC PHYAN | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 11, 2009
Nature Defaults on Hydroelectric Supply
Localize or face the consequences: Brazil Power failure plunges its largest cities into darkness
The US, EU countries, China, Japan and other energy dinosaurs WILL experience similar disruptions…
Another Warning Shot by Nature: Your systems are too inflexible
Banking on the good side of nature. Itaipu Hydroelectric Dam. The world’s largest hydroelectric facility. Credit: Itaipu Binacional.
Remember the first time you heard the so-called Murphy’s Law?
“Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.”
Murphy’s law is void of a time vector! It doesn’t tell you when things WILL go wrong. Nature is more organized than “Murphy” would have lead you to believe. Now hear this.
FEWW Amendment to Murphy’s Law:
If more things can go wrong they will go wrong about now!
… in the world’s major cities, hydroelectric dams, nuclear power plants, oil rigs, production and processing facilities…
A name for this?
Blog Moderators call this phenomenon Secondary Interlude to Human-Induced Planetary Antiphase.
A more vivid example available anywhere? Time scale?
Watch out for large-scale permanent structures, power plants… , e.g., China’s Three Gorges Dam in the next two to three years.
See also entry at
Related Links:
Posted in Failing Ecosystems, energy dinosaurs, exponential growth economy, first wave of collapsing cities, political economy, vulnerability to power loss, world economy | Tagged: Brazil power failure, china power consumption, EU energy policy, Japan Power consumption, Murphy's Law, Nature Defaults, Prelude to Antiphase, Three Gorges Dam, US energy policy, US power consumption | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on November 11, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 9 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 160°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the northern Philippines and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During mid September –October 2009, temperature anomalies increased and expanded eastward in the central equatorial Pacific at thermoclinedepth, due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the central Pacific near 100-150m depth.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
In late September and early October, an anomalous ridge developed over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough and below-average temperatures over parts of the U.S. During mid October, the pattern became more zonal with an anomalous trough evident over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and the eastern half of the U.S. Recently, anomalous ridges emerged over the eastern North Pacific and eastern U.S. leading to above-average temperatures over the western and eastern U.S.
Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s-1)
- Since April 2009, the MJO has been weak.
- Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.
- Recently, the largest westerly wind anomalies have been observed across the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least theNorthern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, ENSO, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, Ocean SST | Tagged: eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 10, 2009
What are the chances of Ida coming back?
At 06:00 UTC (12:00 AM CST) TS Ida was located about 150 km (95 miles) south-southwest of Mobile Alabama.
Dangerous storm tide created by Ida will raise water levels by up to 1.5 meter ( 5 feet) above ground along the coast near and to the East of where storm center makes landfall, as well as in areas of onshore flow in southeastern Louisiana, NOAA NHC said. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.
Summary of TS Ida Status:
As of 06:00 UTC Tue Nov 10 (12:00 AM CST)
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained winds : 96 km/h (60 mph)
Moving: N (360 degrees) at 16 km/h (10 mph)
Min pressure: 29.47 inches (998 mb)
What are the chances of Ida Coming Back?
What’s the probability of Ida doing a U-Turn, restrengthening into a hurricane-force storm for a third time, and slamming into the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, again?
FEWW Moderators believe there’s a 1 in 5 chance [P=0.2] that remnants of Idea could be pinwheeled back into the Gulf of Mexico by a slowly developing system to the east, moving NNW and striking the coast of Louisiana, and further to the west, with renewed intensity.
Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.
Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image and Animation
Click image to animate.
GOES AVNCOLOR Enhancement – Still image Dated as inset. Click image to enlarge and update.
Storm Ida – Earth Observatory
Ida captured by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite on November 9 at 6:17 a.m. U.S. Central Time. Though Ida was still a hurricane, it was quickly weakening. While spots of heavy rain remain, the storm’s circular organization is no longer apparent. NASA image courtesy Hal Pierce, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek, NASA’s Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.
Cumulative Wind History
Click image to enlarge.
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours
Click image to enlarge.
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
Click image to enlarge.
Related Links:
Posted in Alabama, Alabama flood, Alabama storm, Atlantic basin, Atlantic hurricane season, LOUISIANA COAST, Tropical Storm Ida, atlantic hurricanes 2009 | Tagged: Alabama, gulf of mexico, Hurricane AL11, hurricane-force storm, IDA 5-Day Forecast Cone, IDA Cumulative Wind History, ida forecast path, IDA forecast track, IDA projected track, Ida Satellite Image, IDA Wind Speed Probabilities, Mobile, Northern Gulf coast, Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image, Satellite Image of IDA, Storm Ida, tropical storms, TS Idea | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 9, 2009
Another powerful earthquake strikes Fiji – more intense seismic activity could occur in the region this year
A powerful quake measuring up to 7.3 Mw struck Fiji at 17.212°S, 178.413°E or about 100 km north of the capital, Suva and at a depth of 585 km on Monday, November 09, 2009 at 10:45 UTC.
The mainshock was followed by at least one aftershock measuring 5.3 Mw.
On August 19, 2009 FEWW Moderators posted the following entry:
Following the powerful 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck the tip of the Fiordland, South island, New Zealand, followed by a large cluster of aftershocks, another round of geo-assault appears to be gearing up at the southern end of the Kermadec trench.
The Fiordland quakes occurred as a result of a large reverse faulting motion caused by the subduction of the Australian subplate under the Pacific plate, on which Fiordland rests, in Puysegur Trench, at the Alpine Fault.
The new wave of earthquakes would instead be caused by the ‘mirror image’ action, with Pacific plate subducting beneath the Australian protoplate.
A magnitude 6.3 earthquake that struck south of the Fiji Islands on August 18, 2009 at 21:21 UTC may herald a new round of intense [and unprecedented] seismic activity at Kermadec Trench to the north, NE, and East of the North Island, as well as the north, NE, and east of the South Island, New Zealand.
10-degree Map Centered at 15°S,180°E
Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Earthquake Details:
- Magnitude: 7.2 [Maximum quake magnitude estimated by FEWW at 7.0 Mw]
- Date-Time:
- Monday, November 09, 2009 at 10:44:54 UTC
- Monday, November 09, 2009 at 10:44:54 PM at epicenter
- Location: 17.212°S, 178.413°E
- Depth: 585.1 km (363.6 miles)
- Region: FIJI
- Distances:
- 100 km (65 miles) N of SUVA, Viti Levu, Fiji
- 135 km (85 miles) SW of Lambasa, Vanua Levu, Fiji
- 485 km (300 miles) NW of Ndoi Island, Fiji
- 2205 km (1370 miles) N of Auckland, New Zealand
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7 km (4.3 miles); depth +/- 9 km (5.6 miles)
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009nuam
Seismic Hazard Map
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green- USGS/EHP
Seismic Hazard Map
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green- USGS/EHP
Tsunami Info:
NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center reported NO destructive tsunami as a result of this event.
Related Links:
Other Related Links [Including FEWW forecasts]
Posted in Earthquakes, Fiji earthquakes, earthquake forecast, eww earthquake forecast, seismic activity report | Tagged: FIJI earthquake, FIJI quake, intense seismic activity, Java, Kermadec trench, Lambasa, Pacific Plate, Pacific Ring of Fire, Sumbawa earthquake, SUVA, Tambora volcano, tsunami warning, Vanua Levu, Viti Levu | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 9, 2009
El Salvador’s President Mauricio Funes:
The images that we have seen today are of a devastated country
About 130 people have been killed, with at least 60 others missing after days of heavy rain that caused flooding and landslides in El Salvador.
Salvadorans look at their houses that were damaged by heavy rains in San Salvador November 8, 2009. REUTERS/William Bonilla. Image may be subject to copyright.
Map of El Salvador with the worst affected regions San Salvador, the capital, and central San Vicente province marked.
Describing the countrywide devastation as “incalculable,” the El Salvador president declared a national emergency.
San Salvador, the nation’s capital, and central San Vicente province were the hardest-hit regions, officials were reported as saying
According to local reports, San Vicente is virtually cut off by landslides and collapsed bridges, with the worst hit areas being Cuscatlan, La Libertad and La Paz.
Workers seen near a street that was damaged by heavy rain in San Martin on the outskirts of San Salvador, Sunday, Nov. 8, 2009. Photo: Luis Romero/ AP. Image may be subject to copyright.
What if the rain continued?
A police officer told the AP: “The weather continues to be bad, and we already have a river flowing through the village due to a landslide. We are worried things will get worse if the rains continue.”
Large parts of El Salvador are without power or clean water and remain cut off from government aid because of collapsed bridges and washed-up roads
El Salvador’s relentless downpour that funneled rain from the mountains into populated valleys below, lasting for more than 3 days, were caused by a low pressure system in the Pacific, and did NOT occur directly as a result of Hurricane Ida, according to weather reports.
Ida strengthened to a hurricane-force storm on Thursday for the first time near the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua, forcing about than 5,000 people to take shelters from heavy rains.
Related Links:
Posted in Climate Change, El Salvador, disaster areas, global climate change, heavy rain, landslides, mudslides, national emergency | Tagged: Cuscatlan, El Salvador, El Salvador mudslides, La Libertad, La Paz, Mauricio Funes, Nicaragua, San Salvador, San Vicente | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 8, 2009
M7.0 Earthquake Strikes Sumbawa, Indonesia
Powerful earthquake measuring up to 7.0Mw struck Indonesia’s Sumbawa region, about 77 km east of Tambora volcano and at an estimated depth of 18 km, November 8, 2009 at 19:41 UTC.
Mount Tambora’s 1815 eruption (Volcanic Explosivity Index of 7) was the largest in modern history, and perhaps the deadliest of all time, with up to an estimated 100,000 people losing their lives as a result.
Alarmed by its findings concerning the prospect of intense seismic activity in the region, FEWW featured Mt Tambora in its weekly volcano watch VolcanoWatch Weekly dated 23 July 2009.
See also September 28, 2009 entry: Up to 3 More Large EQs Could Strike the Pacific Ring of Fire in 2009
FEWW Moderators believe that further, intense seismic activity would most likely occur in the region in the near future.
10-degree Map Centered at 10°S,120°E
Earthquake location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Earthquake Details:
- Magnitude: 6.7 [Maximum quake magnitude estimated by FEWW at 7.0 Mw]
- Date-Time:
- Sunday, November 08, 2009 at 19:41:44 UTC
- Monday, November 09, 2009 at 03:41:44 AM at epicenter
- Location: 8.316°S, 118.697°E
- Depth: 18.3 km (11.4 miles) (poorly constrained)
- Region: SUMBAWA REGION, INDONESIA
- Distances:
- 15 km (10 miles) NNW of Raba, Sumbawa, Indonesia
- 310 km (190 miles) ENE of Mataram, Lombok, Indonesia
- 330 km (205 miles) W of Ende, Flores, Indonesia
- 1335 km (830 miles) E of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 9.3 km (5.8 miles); depth +/- 33 km (20.5 miles)
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009nta5
Tsunami Info:
NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center Center issued the following evaluation:
A destructive widespread tsunami threat does NOT exist based on historical earthquake and tsunami data. However – there is a very small possibility of a local tsunami that could affect coasts located usually no more than a hundred kilometers from the earthquake epicenter. Authorities in the region near the epicenter should be made aware of this possibility.
Historic Seismicity
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green- USGS/EHP
Seismic Hazard Map
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green- USGS/EHP
Related Links:
Other Related Links [Including FEWW forecasts]
Posted in Earthquakes, Indonisia earthquakes, earthquake forecast, feww earthquake forecast, seismic activity report, seismic hazard report | Tagged: intense seismic activity, Java, Mataram, Raba quake, Sumbawa earthquake, Sumbawa Island, Tambora volcano, tsunami warning, Volcanic Explosivity Index | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 8, 2009
November 10, 2009
UPDATE: Hurricane IDA
Hurricane Ida Status at 600 AM CST 12:00 UTC
Location: 25.8N, 88.2W
Maximum sustained: 130 km/h(80 mph)
Current direction: NNW (335 degrees) at 26 km/h (16 mph)
Minimum Central pressure: 993 MB (29.32 inches)
NOAA Said:
Rains will be increasing well in advance of Ida across the central and eastern gulf coast, but will become steadier and heavier later today into Tuesday. Total storm accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches, are possible through Tuesday from the central and eastern gulf coast northward into the eastern portions of the Tennessee valley and the southern Appalachians.
A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
.
IDA Reaches Hurricane Intensity
In
FEWW Moderators forecast that Ida had a more than 1 in 4 chance [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm.
At 05:15 UTC Sun Nov 8, 2009 [11:15 PM CST Sat Nov 7] NOAA reported that data from its buoy 42056, located in the NW Caribbean Sea, approximately 195 km (120 miles) ESE of Cozumel, Mexico, had reported a 1-minute sustained wind of about 120km/h (75 mph), which indicated Ida has once a again become a hurricane.
FEWW Moderators further believe that Hurricane Ida, could strengthen to a Category 3A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale [Cat 3 on Saffir-Simpson scale] within the next 24-48 hours.
Hurricane Ida Status at 07:15 UTC (1:15 AM CST)
Location: 20.2N, 85.4W
Maximum Sustained Winds: 150 km/h (90 mph) – with higher gusts
Present Movement: Northwest (325 degrees) at about 17 km/h (10 mph)
Minimum central pressure: 983 MB
With 30-km hurricane force winds radii, and tropical storm force winds extending 220 km from the center, hurricane IDA is currently a compact hurricane.
Hurricane IDA. NOAA GOES 12 – Still Image dated Nov 08, 2009 – NASA GSFC GOES Project. Click image to enlarge and update.
GOES Full Disk. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.
Hurricane Ida. GOES-East – Still Sat Image. AVNColor enhancement. Click image to enlarge and update.
Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.
GOES-East/Meteosat-9/MTSAT/ IR Mosaic Color Background – Atlantic Region. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.
Hurricane Ida. Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours
Click image to enlarge and update.
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
Click image to enlarge and update.
NOAA Storm Advisory
- AT 115 AM CST (0715 UTC) THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
- A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
- A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)
Other Images
Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)
Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)
Posted in Atlantic hurricane season, FEWW hurricane Forecast, Hurricanes, hurricane-force storm, tropical storms | Tagged: CABO CATOCHE, Grand Cayman Island, gulf of mexico, Hurricane AL11, Hurricane IDA, IDA 5-Day Forecast Cone, IDA Cumulative Wind History, ida forecast path, IDA forecast track, IDA projected track, Ida Satellite Image, IDA Wind Speed Probabilities, ISLE OF YOUTH, PINAR DEL RIO, PLAYA DEL CARMEN, PUNTA ALLEN, SAN FELIPE, Satellite Image of IDA, TULUM, Yucatan peninsula | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on November 7, 2009
Ida, Now a Tropical Depression, Could Become a Tropical Storm Soon.
But will it strengthen further to a hurricane-force storm as it enters the warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico?
FEWW Moderators believe, as of posting, that Ida has a more than 1 in 4 chance [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm after entering the Gulf of Mexico.
Tropical Depression IDA
GOES Sat Image- Still frame. Click image to enlarge and update.
10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6 [03:00 UTC Sat Nov 7, 2009]
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained: 56 km/h (35 mph)
Moving: N (360 degrees) at 11 km/h (7 mph)
Min pressure: 1006 mb
IDA is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel late Sunday EST.
POES Composite – Daily Sea Surface Temps.
Click image to enlarge and update.
Cumulative Wind History
Click image to enlarge and update.
This graphic shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively. Source: NHC/NOAA
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center
Click image to enlarge and update.
This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. Source: NHC/NOAA
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours
Click image to enlarge and update.
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. Source: NHC/NOAA
More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)
Other Images
Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)
Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)
Posted in Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricanes, Tropical storm, hurricane-force storm, storms | Tagged: Daily Sea Surface Temps, FEWW Forecast, gulf of mexico, IDA 5-Day Forecast Cone, IDA Cumulative Wind History, IDA projected track, Ida Sat Image, IDA Wind Speed Probabilities, Sat Image of IDA, Tropical Depression AL11, Tropical Depression IDA | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 6, 2009
VOW: Kilauea
Click image to enlarge.
[Top] Activity at the west Waikupanaha ocean entry, where lava reached the ocean this past weekend, continues. The entry spans about 200 yards, with many small lava streams entering the water. [Above] On the east margin of the entry, lobes were advancing over a small black sand beach. USGS/ HVO [Dated 4 Nov 2009] Click image to enlarge.
More images:
HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE
Thursday, November 5, 2009 7:48 AM HST (Thursday, November 5, 2009 17:48 UTC)
KILAUEA VOLCANO (CAVW #1302-01-)
19°25′16″ N 155°17′13″ W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Activity Summary for past 24 hours:
Growth and partial collapses of the Halema`uma`u Overlook vent cavity floor continued periodically obscuring and revealing the circulating lava pond surface. Sulfur dioxide emission rates from the Halema`uma`u and east rift zone vents remain elevated. Lava flows are active on the coastal plain. Lava is also flowing through tubes to the coast and entering the ocean at two locations west of Kalapana.
Past 24 hours at Kilauea summit:
The Overlook vent webcam images again showed fluctuating glow and spattering from a single elongated hole deep within the Halema`uma`u vent cavity; the rim of this hole was built progressively inward by spatter making the hole smaller until two more partial collapses occurred early this morning again revealing the circulating and spattering lava pond below. Glow from the vent was visible from Jaggar Museum overnight. This morning, a near white plume is moving southwestward and low over the Ka`u Desert. The most recent sulfur dioxide emission rate measurement was 500 tonnes/day on November 3, which is elevated above the 2003-2007 average of 140 tonnes/day. Small amounts of ash-sized tephra continued to be dropped from the plume near the vent.
Past 24 hours at the middle east rift zone vents and flow field: Magma continued to degas through Pu`u `O`o crater before erupting from the TEB vent, located 2 km to the east. The most recent sulfur dioxide emission rate measurement was 1,400 tonnes/day on November 4, which is close to the 2003-2007 average of 1,700 tonnes/day. More …
Kilauea Spews More Lava
The rift zone on the eastern slopes of Hawaii’s Kilauea Volcano has been erupting since January 1983, the longest eruption in recorded history. Pu‘u ‘O‘o and the Thanksgiving Eve Breakout vent—two centers of volcanic activity—emit steam and other gases in this natural-color satellite image. Lava currently reaches the surface at the Thanksgiving Eve Breakout vent and flows southeast (towards the lower right) through a lave tube to the ocean. Small plumes of gas reveal the path of the lava. In general, the youngest lava flows are black, and older, weathered, flows are gray or brown. Surviving vegetation is bright green. The Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s EO-1 satellite acquired this image on November 2, 2009. NASA Earth Observatory image by Robert Simmon, using EO-1 ALI data provided by the NASA EO-1 team. Caption by Robert Simmon. Click image to enlarge.
SI / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(28October – 3 November 2009)
New activity/Unrest:
Ebeko, Paramushir Island | Galeras, Colombia | Karangetang [Api Siau], Siau I | Manam, Northeast of New Guinea (SW Pacific) | Nevado del Huila, Colombia | Soufrière Hills, Montserrat
GVP Volcano News:
INGEOMINAS reported that on 28 October a pulse of tremor from Nevado del Huila was followed by an ash plume that rose to an altitude of 8.3 km (27,200 ft) a.s.l. On 3 November, residents of Mosoco (20 km SSW) saw collapses from the W side of the dome generate small pyroclastic flows and incandescence at night.
MVO reported that during 23-30 October seismic activity from the Soufrière Hills lava dome was at a slightly lower level that the previous week. Numerous pyroclastic flows occurred in most of the major drainage valleys and rockfalls were concentrated in the S. On 29 October, a 40-m-high spine was seen protruding from the summit. —GVP
Ongoing Activity:
Barren Island, Andaman Is | Chaitén, Southern Chile | Dukono, Halmahera | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Krakatau, Indonesia | Popocatépetl, México | Rabaul, New Britain | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan)
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FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast
Other Related Links:
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Posted in FEWW Volcanic Forecast, Volcano Watch, VolcanoWatch Weekly, volcanic activity, volcanism, volcanoes | Tagged: Barren Island, Chaiten volcano, Dukono, Ebeko, Galeras, Karangetang, Karymsky, Krakatau, Manam, Montserrat, Nevado del Huila, Sakura-jima, Soufrière Hills, Suwanose-jima | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 5, 2009
Amazing Images: The echizen kurage
The amazing echizen kurage, also known as Nomura’s jellyfish, were back on the news again this week.
The Giant Nomura’s Jellyfish. Photo: Getty Images. Image may be subject to copyright.
The 6ft wide giant jellyfish, which weigh 450lb (200kg), are terrorizing the Japanese, inundating waters surrounding Japan, and cutting off their food supply.
The Diasan Shinsho-maru, a 10-ton Japanese trawler, capsized off Chiba prefecture, and its 3-men crew were thrown into the sea, as they attempted to haul in a net filled with the giant jellyfish.
In the summer of 2005, the Nomura’s jellyfish invaded Japan waters, causing injuries to fishermen, damaging their fishing nets and rendering their hauls inedible by stinging the fish with their toxic poison.
Nomura’s Jellyfish. Source: Scrape TV. Image may be subject to copyright.
Two years later they came back attacking the fishing equipment in the Sea of Japan. The authorities received about 16,000 reports of damage to fishing nets and other fishing equipment caused by the massive Nomura’s.
In 2006, nuclear reactors at the Chubu Electric Power Co Hamaoka plant in Shizuoka prefecture on Japan’s Pacific coast were forced to reduce output by up to 70 percent for several hours because the giant creatures had blocked the seawater cooling system.
Nomura’s Jellyfish inspected by divers. Source: Sankei. MSN JP. Image may be subject to copyright.
Posted in Chubu Electric Power Co, Japan Invasion, Shizuoka prefecture | Tagged: Diasan Shinsho-maru, echizen kurage, Japanese trawler, Nomura's jellyfish | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 5, 2009
Arabian Plate Jolted by Quake Cluster at Boundaries in Gulf of Aden
As of posting 4 events had occurred in the region, the largest of which is estimated at 5.8 Mw. The events occurred at a depth of about 10 km.
A Wave of Intense Seismicity May Break up Arabian Plate!
In your lifetime you could see large earthquakes and volcanic explosions breaking up the Arabian plate, creating one or more islands from its southern half.
Arabian Plate. Image Credit: Saudi Arabian Geological Survey
The western boundary of the Arabian plate is a transform fault zone — the Dead Sea and East Anatolian faults —where the adjacent plates grind past each other. Rifts of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden constitute the southern boundary, where Arabia and Africa are pulling apart. The Zagros and Makran mountain ranges mark the present collision zone. Blocks north and east of the collision zone (the Lut and Helmand blocks) arrived on the shores of Eurasia much earlier and are being jostled about during the current event … — Tectonics of the Arabian Plate/ Johnson Space Center/NASA
FEWW Arabia Earthquake and Volcanic Activity Forecast
The GFZ Potsdam Earthquake Bulletin reported the events as follows
Event No. 1
Region: Western Gulf of Aden
Time: 2009-11-05 06:23:05.2 UTC
Magnitude: 4.4
Epicenter: 45.70°E 12.21°N
Depth: 10 km
Status: manually revised
Earthquake Location Map. © Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ
Event No. 2
Region: Western Gulf of Aden
Time: 2009-11-05 07:12:35.7 UTC
Magnitude: 5.6
Epicenter: 46.07°E 12.10°N
Depth: 20 km
Status: manually revised
Tectonics of the Arabian Plate
The African, Arabian and Indian crustal plates have been marching northward to collide with Eurasia — for about 20 million years in the case of Arabia, and for 50 million years in the case of India. The result has been a collage of plate pieces and mountain ranges that extend from the Pyrenees in the west, across southern Europe and the Middle East, through the Himalayas and the ranges of southeast Asia. Incorporated within that broad band are continental fragments that moved across the ocean and separately crashed into Eurasia; structures of some of those fragments have been reactivated during the present collision. Image and Caption: Johnson Space Center/NASA
10-degree Map Centered at 10°N,45°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Seismic Hazard Map
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green
Seismic Hazard Map
Event No. 3
Region: Western Gulf of Aden
Time: 2009-11-05 07:57:30.1 UTC
Magnitude: 4.8
Epicenter: 46.11°E 11.96°N
Depth: 10 km
Status: manually revised
Event No. 4
Region: Western Gulf of Aden
Time: 2009-11-05 08:05:52.6 UTC
Magnitude: 5.1
Epicenter: 45.95°E 12.13°N
Depth: 17 km
Status: manually revised
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Posted in earthquake forecast, feww earthquake forecast, seismic activity, seismic activity report, seismic event report | Tagged: Aden, Arabian Plate, berbera, Dabbahu fissure, Eurasian Plate, Gulf of Aden, makran thrust, Owen fracture zone, read sea uplift, saudi arabia, Somalian plate, Turkish plate, Yemen, Yemen quake | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 4, 2009
Quake measuring 5 on Richter scale rocked Western Yunnan, destroying about 600 houses and damaging up to 18,000 others
The earthquake occurred in western Yunnan about 85 km (55 miles) NE of Dali at a depth of 35 km (21.7 miles) early Monday local time.
The tremor has affected 302,000 people, with 31 injured and 61,000 relocated, but no deaths were reported so far, China’s official news agency Xinhua said. “The quake flattened 579 houses and damaged another 17,400.”
China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs has sent tents, war clothing, and rice to the victims, Xinhua added.
According to other reports, about 400 livestock, including pigs, sheep and chicken had been killed in the quake.
10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,100°E
Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW
Earthquake Details
- Magnitude: 4.9 Mw
- Date-Time: Sunday, November 01, 2009 at 21:07:23 UTC [Monday, November 02, 2009 at 05:07:23 AM at epicenter]
- Location: 25.919°N, 100.748°E
- Depth: 35 km (21.7 miles)
- Region: YUNNAN, CHINA
- Distances:
- 85 km (55 miles) NE of Dali, Yunnan, China
- 120 km (75 miles) SW of Panzhihua (Dukou), Sichuan, China
- 700 km (435 miles) SW of Chongqing, Chongqing, China
- 2130 km (1320 miles) SW of BEIJING, Beijing, China
- Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 10.7 km (6.6 miles)
- Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
- Event ID: us2009nla2
Seismic Hazard Map
Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green
Related Links:
Posted in Beijing, China quake, Earthquake Hazard, chinese Govt, seismicity report | Tagged: China, china earthquake forecast, China quake, Dali quake, Dukou, earthquake forecast, Earthquakes, Panzhihua quakes, Sichuan, Yunnan quake | Leave a Comment »
