U.S. Tornado Forecast 2012

Theft of Intellectual Properties from FIRE-EARTH Discourages Tornado Forecast

Due to the theft of intellectual properties from FIRE-EARTH blog, the Moderators are reluctant to publish tornado forecasts for the 2012 season.

However, summaries of the major tornadic, and other extreme weather/ climatic events will be posted on the Blog, as they occur.

Related Links

• Tornado Alley Maps for June
• Nebraska Nuke Plant Remains Shut After Missouri River Flooding
• The worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history
• U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather
• MEGA DELUGE 2011?
• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

•  Tornado Dead to Haunt Missouri Officials
• The worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history
• U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather
• MEGA DELUGE 2011?

• 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season: AAA
• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar 

• Tornado Attacks Leave 100 Dead or Injured in Indonesia Posted on January 29, 2012
• State of Emergency Declared in Alabama Posted on January 24, 2012
• Deadly Tornado Season 2012 Begins Posted on January 23, 2012
• U.S. Tornado Forecast 2012 Posted on February 25, 2012

Deadly Tornado Hits Rome, Ga

EF-1 Tornado kills at least one, leaving a 3-mile swath of destruction in Floyd County, Georgia

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 24

[February 24, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,482 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Georgia, USA.   EF1 tornado with winds of about 95mph (153 km/hr) struck Rome (Floyd County), Ga., killing at least one personand devastating a vast area.
  • The twister damaged about 100 homes in Kingston Highway area, reports said.
  • This was the second time in recent months that Floyd County was hit by a tornado.
  • Tornado touched down in Floyd County at about 10:15pm Wednesday, just west of the Maplewood subdivision in Rome, and traveled 3.25 miles, SPC said.

The Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale – Quick Chart

EF0: 65 TO 85 MPH
EF1: 86 TO 110 MPH
EF2: 111 TO 135 MPH
EF3: 136 TO 165 MPH
EF4: 166 TO 200 MPH
EF5: Wind speeds greater than 200 MPH

Related Links

• Tornado Alley Maps for June
• Nebraska Nuke Plant Remains Shut After Missouri River Flooding
• The worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history
• U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather
• MEGA DELUGE 2011?
• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

•  Tornado Dead to Haunt Missouri Officials
• The worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history
• U-S Attacked by Continued Severe Weather
• MEGA DELUGE 2011?

• 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season: AAA
• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar 

• Tornado Attacks Leave 100 Dead or Injured in Indonesia Posted on January 29, 2012

• State of Emergency Declared in Alabama Posted on January 24, 2012

• Deadly Tornado Season 2012 Begins Posted on January 23, 2012

Members Notice: VOTING

Subject: Voting on TKPN

Date and Time:  February 24, 2012  at 04:20 UTC

Message: Voting on TKPN will stop at 16:20 UTC February 24, 2012

Previous Message: Members Messages – 10 Aug 2011

Posted by:  FIRE-EARTH [JMC]

Emergency Declared in Bolivia’s Flooded Amazon Region

Bolivians government declares a state of emergency in Amazon region following severe flooding

Flooding in the Bolivian Amazon region has left at least a dozen people dead and up to 10,000 families homeless.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 23

[February 23, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,483 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Bolivia.  Bolivians government has declared a state of emergency in the country’s Amazon region following severe flooding.
  • Flooding has left at least a dozen people dead and up to 10,000 families homeless.
  • The Acre River has burst its banks causing unprecedented flooding in the northern province of Pando, which borders Brazil, leaving the provincial capital, Cobija, completely inundated and obliterating dozens of villages.
  • The Peruvian and Brazilian Amazon regions have also been affected by widespread flooding caused by an abnormally intense rainy season.

• Acre, Brazil.  Sever flooding has affected up to 100,000 people in northern Brazil’s Acre state, making it the state’s second worst flooding on record.
  • At least 45 suburbs of Rio Branco, capital of Acre, are submerged under floodwater, with more than 15,000 homes inundated.
  • Forecasters say the region will receive even more rain this week.

Other Global Disasters

• Buenos Aires, Argentina.  A commuter train crashed at a Buenos Aires station, killing at least 50 people and injuring more than 600.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar 

Schmallenberg Virus Hits 7 Countries

SBV induces late abortion or birth defects in newborn livestock 

The virus has infected more than 1,200 cattle, sheep and goats in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, Luxembourg and the UK, as of posting

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 22

[February 22, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,484 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Northern Europe.  At least 7 northern European countries have reported more than 1,200 cases of Schmallenberg Virus (SBV) infections in cattle, sheep and goats.
  • Schmallenberg Virus is a new emerging livestock disease that was first detected in the town of Schmallenberg, North Rhein-Westphalia region, Germany.
  • SBV causes acute illness and induces late abortion or birth defects in the newborn livestock.
  • “This exotic virus may cause severe congenital damages in pregnant animals, as well as premature births and reproductive disorders. Calves that are not stillborn may suffer from serious brain and limb malformations,” a report said.
  • The virus is believed to be transmitted through arthropod vectors including mosquitoes, midges, ticks and sand flies.
  • A significant increase in reporting from the known affected countries is noted by the International Disease Monitoring section of UK’s Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).
  • “Women who are, or who may be, pregnant are potentially at risk of acquiring certain infectious diseases from pregnant livestock including sheep. Pregnant women who come into close contact with sheep during lambing may risk their own health and that of their unborn child, from infections which can occur in some ewes,” UK’s  HPA said.

Source: UK DEFRA/HPA

Source:  DEFRA/HPA/IDM

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar 

Sky Photo – 21 Feb 2012

Animated Cloud Formations

Related Links

• Sky Photos II
• Sky Photos

 

Drought Declared in SE England‎

Larger areas of the UK face drought this year: DEFRA

England declares drought in more regions after months of low rainfall.  Drought is now affecting the country’s southeastern, eastern and parts of the Midlands. The river Kennet has stopped flowing near Lockeridge in Wiltshire, reports said.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 21

[February 21, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,485 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• England, UK.  As UK government declares drought in southeast England, the country’s top official responsible for  environment has warned that large parts of the country are facing an inevitable drought this summer even if the coming months bring heavy rainfall.
  • “Drought is already an issue this year with the south-east, Anglia and other parts of the UK now officially in drought, and more areas are likely to be affected as we continue to experience a prolonged period of very low rainfall,”  British Environment Minister has warned.
  • Meantime, the country’s Meteorological Agency has warned that ‘prolonged periods of heavy rainfall in the near future are unlikely.’
  • Groundwater levels in East Anglia are exceptionally low.
  • Rainfall in the Midlands, East Anglia and the south east in January was about 35 percent below normal.
  • East Anglia has experienced its driest-ever 5-month period from last September, the Center for Hydrology and Ecology reported.
  • The counties of Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire and large parts of Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, as well as  west Norfolk are experiencing drought, while Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, East Sussex, Kent, Nottinghamshire, Oxfordshire and Shropshire are extremely dry.
  • “Since June 2011, drought has affected Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, parts of Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, and west Norfolk. In February 2012 following a dry winter, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex, Kent, Surrey, London, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, and the east of Gloucestershire are now in drought,” Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) reported.
  • In contrast, northern England and Scotland have experienced their wettest winter in 100 years, reports said.

UK Groundwater Levels as of mid February 2012. BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2012.

Other Global Disasters

• New South Wales (NSW), Australia.   The government in the Australian state of NSW has extended a natural disaster declarations to the northern areas of Bourke and Tamworth, a report said.
  • The disaster declarations follow widespread flooding which has substantially damaged homes, businesses and infrastructure.
  • The following local government areas have already been declared disaster areas: Walgett, Brewarrina, Liverpool Plains, Gloucester, Upper Hunter, Ballina, Gunnedah, Moree Shire, Greater Taree, Gwydir, Narrabri, Tenterfield, Bellingen, Byron, Lismore, Kyogle, Richmond Valley, Clarence Valley, Coffs Harbour, Inverell, Nambucca, Kempsey and Tweed Shire Council.
  • Flood evacuation orders may be issued later today.
• Western NSW.  Meantime, major flooding is occurring across the western portion of NSW, reports said.
  • Fooodwaters from Queensland and eastern NSW are heading west towards Brewarrina and Bourke (combined pop: ~ 4,000), where three swollen river systems converge.
• Southern NSW.   “Authorities received more than 300 calls for help as flash flooding hit Sydney and the New South Wales south coast last night,” a report said.
  • “Extraordinary rain. Terrey Hills had 61 millimeters in a hour, and Peakhurst had 26 millimeters in just ten minutes,” State Emergency Service spokesman said.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar 

Back-to-Back Australian Disasters

• Inland sea moving across NSW, Australia  Posted on February 10, 2012
• The state government in NSW (Aus)  has declared Gunnedah a disaster area

• Flooded Australia: Thousands Evacuated in 3 States
• Back-to-Back Disasters Could Hit Australia: FIRE-EARTH Forecast
• Wildfire Consumes 1 Million Acres in WA

• Australia: 5 disaster areas declared in NSW following severe flooding

HUNGER: States of Emergency Declared Across the Sahel

10 million threatened by hunger as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger declare states of emergency

Niger (pop: ~ 16million) is the worst affected country with almost half of its population left without enough to eat.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 20

[February 20, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,486 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• The Sahel, Africa. Ten million people are threatened by hunger across the Sahel, as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger declare states of emergency.
  • “Nearly half of Niger does not have enough to eat.  The 5.4 million people struggling to stay alive are part of a wider crisis affecting at least 10 million people across the swath across Africa that borders the Sahara, known as the Sahel,” said a spokeswoman for Mercy Corps.
  • “This is the third time in the last decade the people of the Sahel have faced severe food shortages.”

Other Disasters

• Global.  Wildfires kill about 339,000 people each year, according to a new study.
  • The fires consume about 450 million hectares, an area half the size of Canada.
  • [Notes:
    •  In China alone indoor air pollution kills 2.2 million youths.
    • Urban air pollution kills about 2.4 million people globally each year, said The World Health Organization (WHO); however, the true figure may be 10 times as many.]
  • About 157,000 of the deaths caused by wildfires occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and 110,000 deaths in southeast Asia.
  • The study suggests a link between climate and wildfire mortality.
  • El Niño years, when the surface ocean temperature rises in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, claim an average of 532,000 lives, twice as many as the cooler La Niña years, averaging 262,000 deaths per year.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar 

Drought: Recent Links

• Drought tightens grip on S. Mozambique Posted on January 16, 2012
• Niger Faces Food Shortages Posted on December 25, 2011
• Disaster Calendar 2011: Famine Spreads in Somalia Posted on August 4, 2011
• Worst drought in living memory gripping Horn of Africa Posted on June 29, 2011

Ten Colorado Counties Declared Disaster Areas

Continuing drought causes agricultural disaster in Colorado

Ten Colorado counties have been designated as agricultural disaster areas due to losses caused by drought that began  October 1, 2011, and continues, USDA reported.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 19

[February 19, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,487 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Colorado, USA.  The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated ten counties in the state of Colorado as agricultural disaster areas due to losses caused by drought that occurred from October 1, 2011, and continues.
  • Primary Disaster Area:  Lincoln County.
  • Contiguous Disaster Areas:  Arapahoe, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert, El Paso, Kiowa, Kit Carson, Pueblo and Washington counties.

Other Global Disasters

• Negros, Philippines. Death toll and the number of people missing from a strong earthquake, measuring 6.7Mw, and several significant aftershocks that struck Philippines Negros Region on February 6 has climbed to at least 113, the country’s National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said.
  • About 120 people were injured in the quakes.
  • The quakes destroyed more than 6,300 houses and damaged 9,200 others.
  • About 5,000 families are currently in evacuation centers, a report said.

• Yunnan province, China. A severe drought has destroyed or damaged about 400,000 hectares (~ one million acres) of crops in Southwest China’s Yunnan province, local reports said.
  • The direct economic losses is estimated at more than 600 million yuan.
  • The drought has affected about 6.3 million people in 91 counties in the province, reports said.
  • More than 2.4 million people and 1.55 million livestock are short of drinking water.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

• Disaster declaration renewed in Texas
• Volcanic Emissions: Hawaii County Declared Disaster Area
• Indiana, Michigan and Washington Declared Disaster Areas

Tens of Thousands Displaced Amid Severe Flooding in Philippines

Floods and landslides plague Philippines Bicol region, Visayas and Mindanao

Seven days of continuous rain has left dozens of municipalities deluged, as authorities declare a state of calamity in the town of Jabonga, Agusan del Norte.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 18

[February 18, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,488 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Philippines.  Tens of thousands of people have been displaced amid severe flooding which has plagued three major regions in the Philippines.
  • Seven days of continuous rain have triggered floods and landslides that have swamped dozens of municipalities in large parts of the Bicol region, Visayas and Mindanao.
  • The authorities have declared a state of calamity in the town of Jabonga, Agusan del Norte, said a report.
  • “Meanwhile, Alert Level 1 was raised by the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (DRRMC) Thursday over the the cities of Surigao, Butuan and the provinces of Dinagat, Agusan del Norte, Surigao del Norte, Siargao Island and other areas of Northeastern Mindanao (Caraga region) following the continuous rains that began last Saturday,” said a report.
  • Floods have severely affected at least 4,000 others in Regions VIII (Eastern Visayas), X (Northern Mindanao) and XIII (Caraga), with 3,000 moved to evacuation centers, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council said.
  • Meanwhile, landslides occurred in dozens of villages in Leyte and Kahupian, burying several bridges, reports said.
  • At least 5 people have  been killed so far as a result of the extreme weather events, early reports said.
  • Heavy flooding in Daguitan River, Dulag, Leyte (Leyte Province is located in the Eastern Visayas region) caused power outages in many parts of the province, said the Philippines Information Agency, a government organization.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

• Dozens Dead or Missing after Philippine Quakes  Posted on February 6, 2012
• Hundreds flee flooding in Mindanao, Philippines  Posted on January 15, 2012

• Typhoon WASHI Legacy Lingers  Posted on January 4, 2012
• 20,000 displaced in Philippines latest floods  Posted on December 27, 2011
• Philippines declares national calamity  Posted on December 20, 2011
• Typhoon WASHI: 1,650 dead or missing  Posted on December 18, 2011

State of Emergency Declared for Greece’s Energy Grid

Heavy winter in the Balkans blamed for acute energy shortages

Greece’s energy grid has been placed under a state of emergency because of “a major deficiency” in natural gas supplies, caused by a jump in demand for natural gas and electricity throughout the Balkans, due to abnormally heavy winter.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 17

[February 17, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,489 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Greece. The country’s energy grid has been placed under a state of emergency because of “a major deficiency” in natural gas supplies, caused by a jump in demand for natural gas and electricity throughout the Balkans, due to abnormally heavy winter.
  • “The energy sufficiency problems have arisen as a result of the discontinuation of electricity exports to Greece by Bulgaria (since Friday) and FYROM (since Monday), the limited operation of hydroelectric units in order to conserve water reserves, which are already low, for the summer, problems in the country’s supply with natural gas from the pipeline via Turkey, and low temperatures in the country resulting in increased energy demand for heating given that consumers have turned to air conditioners and heaters rather than central heating due to high heating oil prices,” said a report.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

• War on Nature: Danube Dynamited
• Europe’s Big Freeze Deepens: Hundreds Dead
• Deadly Freeze: Bosnia Declares a State of Emergency
• State of Emergency Declared in S. Bulgaria after Severe Flooding
• The Death of Homo Sapiens Sapiens (Part 1)

 

Texas Drought Causes Urban Forest Die-off

2011 Texas drought kills 5.6 million urban shade trees: TFS

The historic drought has killed an estimated 5.6 million shade trees, dubbed ‘urban forest,’ throughout the cities, towns and communities across the state of Texas since last year, Texas Forest Service (TFS) reported.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 16

[February 16, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,490 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Texas, USA.  Last year’s unrelenting drought killed an estimated 5.6 million shade trees, dubbed urban forest,’ throughout the communities across the state, Texas Forest Service(TFS) reported.
  • “This estimate is preliminary because trees are continuing to die from the drought,” said Pete Smith, Texas Forest Service staff forester and lead researcher. “This means we may be significantly undercounting the number of trees that ultimately will succumb to the drought. That number may not be known until the end of 2012, if ever.”
  • “All cities and towns in Texas were included in the study with the exception of the Trans Pecos region, where tree mortality was determined to be a result of a February 2011 cold snap; not the drought,” said the report.
  • The loss of economic and environmental benefits provided by the trees is estimated at about $280 million per year, TFS said.
  • To prevent safety hazards posed by falling dead trees, the authorities will have to remove them. The estimated cost of  removing the dead trees is $560 million.

Texas Drought Map (Feb. 2012). Source: US Drought Monitor

Other Global Disasters

• Madagascar.   Death toll from Cyclone Giovanna, which struck Madagascar on February 14, 2012, has risen to at least 16, officials have reported.
  • Many people were reported missing and about 100 injured.
  • The deadly Cat 4B cyclone slammed the Indian Ocean island with sustained winds of  231km (143 miles) per hour and wind gusts exceeding 275kph.
  • The storm has destroyed about 4,000 structures, mostly homes, and dozens of schools, leaving up to 15,000 people homeless.
  • Much of the infrastructure in several cities have also been destroyed, with vast areas submerged under up to 3 feet of water.

• Honduras.  Death toll has risen to 360 following a massive prison fire that destroyed large parts of the Comayagua complex located about 100km (60 miles) north of the in Honduran capital of Tegucigalpa.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

• Disaster declaration renewed in Texas
• Drought 2012
• Texas drought kills 500 million trees

• US 2011 Mega Disasters Costs Exceed $52 Billion*
• Billion-dollar disasters of 2011 [Updated]

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 15

Earth is fighting to stay alive! A dead planet cannot support life

[February 15, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,491 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Deadly Cat 4B Cyclone Giovanna Slams Madagascar

Giovanna rips through Madagascar with destructive winds and torrential rain

Giovanna slammed the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar as a Category 4B Cyclone with sustained winds of  231km (143 miles) per hour and wind gusts exceeding 275kph.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 14

[February 14, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,492 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Madagascar. Cyclone Giovanna slammed the Indian Ocean island of Madagascar as a Category 4B stormwith sustained winds of  231km (143 miles) per hour and wind gusts exceeding 275kph.
  • The deadly storm destroyed or damaged scores of buildings, destroyed trees and caused power shutdowns in at least two towns, the capital, Antananarivo, killing at least one person in Brickaville, and eastern port city of Tamatave, according to early reports.
  • Officials warned scale of devastation could match or exceed the 1994 disaster caused by Cyclone Geralda which killed more than 200 people and left 500,000 homeless.
  • In 2008, wind damage and severe flooding by Cyclone Ivan caused much devastation to  Sainte Marie Island and mainland Madegascar, leaving about 270 people dead or missing and 330,000  others homeless, destroying about 200,000 hectares of  crops and leaving thousands without food.

Other Global Disasters

• Albania. Prime Minister of  Albania has declared 4 (of 12) counties of Shkodër, Kukës, Dibër, Korçë and the district of Librazhd as natural disaster areas due to worsening weather conditions, a report said.

• Philippines. Widespread flooding in the Philippines has left at least a dozen people dead or injured and tens of thousands displaced.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

• War on Nature: Danube Dynamited
• Europe’s Big Freeze Deepens: Hundreds Dead
• Deadly Freeze: Bosnia Declares a State of Emergency
• State of Emergency Declared in S. Bulgaria after Severe Flooding
• The Death of Homo Sapiens Sapiens (Part 1)

Japan Earthquake Forecast

Japan Region Earthquakes: Currently Valid Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH

• TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING Posted by feww on March 16, 2011

• Global Tectonics Alert – April 9: JPTRMT1

A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan

FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE  ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.

Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.

Related Links:

• Tectonics Update – January 28: Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH – [Suspended]
• Earthquake Forecast: Tokyo, Japan Posted by feww on May 18, 2009
• Tectonics Update – March 10
• Fukushima at increased earthquake risk [European Geosciences Union]
• Big Tokyo Quake Forecast by 2016  [Researchers at Tokyo University’s Earthquake Research Institute]

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area

Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast [Posted by feww on March 16, 2011]

Details of Earthquake Forecast:

• Magnitude: 8.8Mw [Uncertainty= ±0.4Mw]
• Location: 50 – 150km radius of Tokyo Bay Area
• Depth: 24km [Uncertainty= N/A]
• Occurrence Time:
  • Between now and November 2011 [Probability = 0.70]
  • Between December 2011 and October 2012 [Probability = 0.64]
  • Between November 2012  and December 2016 [Probability = 0.78]

• Notes:
  • This forecast may be affected by SEISMIC CHAIN REACTIONS IN JAPAN REGION
  • For background, see summary of FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes Posted on March 13, 2011
  • NEXT MAJOR TECTONICS EVENT COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.
  • NEW FORECAST: As Many as 4 Large Earthquakes Could  Strike Japan Region by 2015
  • Waves of Intense Seismic Activity Could Strike Eastern Honshu, Japan
  • Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes
  • Fire Earth Model shows that Japan region could be struck by up to 4 additional strong to large earthquakes possibly this year/early next year, one of which could be a catastrophic event.
  • FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Tokyo University Seismologists

70% chance of big Tokyo earthquake ‘within 4 yrs’

The Yomiuri Shimbun –  There is a 70 percent probability the Tokyo metropolitan area will be hit directly by a strong earthquake of magnitude-7 level within four years, according to data compiled by a University of Tokyo research team.

The preliminary calculations conducted by a team from the university’s Earthquake Research Institute were based on intensified seismic activity in the area after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11.

The findings are more dire than a similar estimate by the central government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, which states there is a 70 percent chance a quake of the same scale will hit the southern Kanto region, including the metropolitan area, within 30 years.

The central government’s Central Disaster Management Council assumes 18 different hypocenters of magnitude-7 level earthquakes, such as in southern Ibaraki Prefecture and the Tachikawa fault zone.

If a magnitude-7.3 earthquake occurs directly under northern Tokyo Bay, as many as 11,000 people are expected to die and about 850,000 buildings to be rendered totally unusable or destroyed by fire.

According to the Meteorological Agency’s observations, after the March 11 disaster, earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 6 occurred an average of 1.48 times a day in the metropolitan area through December. This was about five times the pre-disaster average.

Prof. Naoshi Hirata of the university’s research institute and others based their calculations on the rule of thumb that the frequency of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their strength. For every increase in magnitude of one, the frequency of their occurrence falls by 90 percent.

The metropolitan area was hit by the magnitude-8 level Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. Five weaker but still serious earthquakes of magnitude-7 level also hit an area extending from southern Ibaraki Prefecture to the Uraga Channel over a period of about 120 years.

The government’s earthquake headquarters obtained its quake estimate data based on the intervals of these quakes in the past. The data did not incorporate the increased seismic activity after the March 11 disaster.

Experts believe seismic activity in the metropolitan area has been intensified by changes in the movements of the Earth’s crust since March 11.

“Intensified seismic activity will continue from several to 10 more years,” Hirata said. “It’s highly probable a strong quake with a magnitude of about 7 will occur during that time.  (Jan. 24, 2012)