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Decadal Temp Avg Up by 74 pct on 1990s

Posted by feww on December 9, 2009

Average decadal temp rose by 74 percent compared with the 1990’s

Decadal temp average rose by 0.4ºC in the last decade (2000 – 2009) compared with 3 decades 1961 to 1990, while the 1990s decade was 0.23 degrees higher.

Global Annual Mean Surface Air Temperature Change
Click images to enlarge

Line plot of global mean land-ocean temperature index, 1880 to present. The dotted black line is the annual mean and the solid red line is the five-year mean. The green bars show uncertainty estimates. [This is an update of Fig. 1A in Hansen et al. (2006)] January-September (9 months) mean is used for 2009 data. Credit: NASA/GISS.

Annual Mean Temperature Change for Hemispheres

Annual and five-year running mean temperature changes for the northern (red) and southern (blue) hemispheres. Credit: NASA/GISS.

Annual Mean Temperature Change for Land and Ocean


Annual and five-year running mean temperature changes for the land (green) and ocean (purple). Credit: NASA/GISS.

Global Mean Surface Temperature vs. Year and Month


Diagram should be self-explanatory. Credit: NASA/GISS.

2009 Likely to Be Fifth Warmest Year  on Record

This year is set to be the fifth warmest, and this decade the hottest ever on record —WMO

WMO head Michel Jarraud, speaking in Copenhagen, said 2009 was likely to be the fifth warmest year on record, and the first decade of this century the hottest ever.  Referring to the world’s worst hotspots, he added that Australia had experienced its third warmest year since 1850, “with three exceptional heatwaves.”

“I could go on. There was the worst drought in five decades which affected millions of people in China, a poor monsoon season in India causing severe droughts, massive food shortages associated with a big drought in Kenya,” he said.

Jarraud also referred to extreme floods throughout the world, including the deluge  in Burkina Faso, which broke a 90-year record, as well as  the third lowest summer Arctic sea ice cover on record, marking the trend for the third consecutive year.

When will a new record be set?

1998 was the hottest year on record, which coincided with a powerful El Nino. 2009 saw a new El Nino developing.

“It’s getting warmer and warmer. The warming trend is increasing.” Jarraud said.  “Its just a matter of years before we break the [1998] record.”

“It’s difficult to say [when a new record will be set] because of the variability. The first time there will be a strong El Nino the temperature will be greater than before.”

“Jarraud rejected a ‘climategate’ row over leaked emails from Britain’s [rent-a-scientist] University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit (CRU), which showed some scientists’ efforts to boost the credibility of climate change at the expense of skeptics.”

The WMO temperature analysis used two U.S. data sources, as well as the British CRU. “The three separately show almost identical results,” said Jarraud.

“The fact that the record for the hottest year has not been broken since 1998 has helped fuel arguments from a small minority of scientists that climate change may not be as severe as feared.” Reuters reported.

UK MetOffice Hadley Centre’s head, Vicky Pope said the temperatures had “climbed slightly” in the past decade. “There hasn’t been a cooling [since the 1998 record.]”

Analyzed on a decadal basis, the temperature rose by 0.4 degrees Celsius in the last decade (2000 – 2009) compared with the average in the three decades 1961 to 1990, while the 1990s decade was 0.23 degrees higher, according to Pope.

“Essentially what’s happened is we’ve gone into [a permanent?] El Niño,” she said.  [El Niño weather pattern can cause havoc in global weather system.]

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