El Niño Update [29 March 2010]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  29 March 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.0ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~0.1ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures  (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

• Since mid-February 2010, the positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave
• Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Click images to enlarge.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.
• The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010, which persists into the fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the late summer or fall.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 28 March 2010The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue line) predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

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El Niño Updates – Last 6 Weeks:

• El Niño Update [22 March 2010]
• El Niño Update [15 March 2010]
• El Niño Update [8 March 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [8 February 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [1 February 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [25 Jan 2010]

• El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]