El Niño Weekly Update [1 February 2010]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

El Niño Weekly UPDATE prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  1 February 2010

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~  1.3ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~  1.2ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 150°W.

Click on the images to enlarge

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 31 January 2010
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) are 1.0ºC-2.5ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Related Links:

• Climate Locked into ‘Unending’ El Niño?
• What Florida Might Look Like in 2014
• SE Australia Toasted Brown
• UK Flooding
• Speaking of El Niño, OLR Anomalies in Australia
• El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]
• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño Weekly Update [25 Jan 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [18 Jan 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [11 Jan 2010]
• El Niño Weekly Update [4 Jan 2010]

• El Niño [Main Page, Links to Weekly Updates Archive]