Severe Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE – March 27, 2017 Update

DEBBIE intensifies to a Cat 4, Severe Tropical Cyclone with sustained wind gusts of up to 275 km/h

DEBBIE, now a category four Severe Tropical Cyclone is expected to hit the north Queensland coast on Tuesday morning local time, warned the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

The cyclone could intensify to a category five system in the coming hours, BOM forecasters said. The “very intense system” is currently generating wind gusts near the center of up to 275 km/h.

Meanwhile, thousands of residents in low-lying Mackay areas have been ordered to evacuate.

Issued by BOM at 0:59 am EST (UTC + 10:00) on Tuesday 28 March 2017

Headline: Severe tropical cyclone DEBBIE, category 4, continues moving towards the Whitsunday coast (Qld, Australia).

Areas Affected: Warning Zone

Lucinda to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers, Mount Coolon, Moranbah, and Pentland.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone DEBBIE at 1:00 am AEST:

Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the center of 175 km/h with wind gusts to 250 km/h.

Location: within 30km of 19.8 degrees South 149.6 degrees East, estimated to be 140km ENE of Bowen and 160km NNE of Mackay.

Movement: WSW at 8 km/h.

Severe tropical cyclone DEBBIE is currently a category 4 cyclone. It may intensify further as it continues to move west-southwest towards the Whitsunday coast this morning. Severe tropical cyclone DEBBIE is forecast to make landfall between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) late this morning.
Hazards:

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone DEBBIE is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) late this morning with wind gusts potentially to 260 km/h near the center of the system.

Cyclone ITA Intensifying

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CORAL SEA
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Severe Tropical Cyclone ITA (23P) Targeting Northern Australia

Tropical Cyclone ITA could strengthen to a category 4A hurricane equivalent force, packing sustained winds of about 210km/h, with wind gusts of more than 250km/h, on its approach to northern Australia coastline.

At 06:00 UTC on April 8, 2014, the cyclone was  positioned at 11.8ºS, 152.9ºE  (+/- 35km), according to ABOM.

ITA was moving northwestward at about 5km/h.

Tropical Cyclone ITA (23P), WV Satellite Image (FIRE-EARTH ENHANCEMENT) at 08:32UTC on April 8, 2014.  Initial image sourced from UW/CIMSS.

Severe Tropical Cyclone ITA (23P) – Projected track Map. Source: ABOM

Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) said:

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 3, remains south of Papua New Guinea and is about 1030 km east of Lockhart River, and 920 km east northeast of Cooktown. The system has moved slowly westwards over the past few hours.

Severe Tropical Cyclone ITA is expected to remain too far offshore to have a significant influence on the weather along the Queensland coast through until at least the end of Wednesday; however the threat is expected to increase later this week. 

Note:

A Severe Tropical Cyclone 3 on the Australian scale punches winds speeds equivalent to a category 1 hurricane .
A Severe Tropical Cyclone 4 on the Australian scale is equivalent to a category 2-3 hurricane.

Related Links

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

CHRISTINE Could Intensify to Cat 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone

EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENT

Massive Storm CHRISTINE could intensify to a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone

FIRE-EARTH Models show CHRISTINE could intensify to a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone with sustained winds of 165 km/h or higher, and wind gusts in excess of 225 km/h over the next 24 hours, subject to continued favorable conditions [probability: 0.45]

As of 05:32 UTC on December 29, 2013 FIRE-EARTH models located  CHRISTINE (TC 05S) near 17.1ºS, 119.9ºE, about 425 km NNE of Port Hedland, Australia, inching SSW towards the Pilbara coast at a forward speed of about 3 km/h.

Severe Tropical Cyclone  CHRISTINE. Infrared [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite Image. Recorded at 04:32UTC on Sunday December 29, 2013. The original Image Sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

 ABOM Forecast

According to Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM), CHRISTINE will develop to a Cat 3   Severe Tropical Cyclone at 5 am WST (UTC +8 hrs)  and weaken to Cat2 at 11 am on December 31.

Severe Tropical Cyclone  CHRISTINE projected path.  Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM).

ABOM Cyclone Warning

“During Monday gales and heavy rainfall are expected to extend to Mardie and possibly as far west as Exmouth, and then to the inland Pilbara late Monday and on Tuesday. If Christine continues to develop as expected a severe tropical cyclone impact on the Pilbara coast is likely late on Monday or early on Tuesday, with VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour near the cyclone centre,” warned BOM.

“People on the coast between Pardoo and Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha, are warned of the potential for a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.”

Related Links

• CHRISTINE Even Fiercer than She Looks  December 28, 2013

CHRISTINE Even Fiercer than She Looks

CHRISTINE Could Develop to Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE could intensify to a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone with sustained winds of 140 km/h or higher, and wind gusts in excess of 180 km/h over the next 24 -36 hours, subject to favorable conditions.

Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE. Water Vapor [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite Image.  Recorded at 12:32UTC on Saturday December 28, 2013. The original Image Sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

At 13:00UTC on December 28, 2013 CHRISTINE was located about 505km north northeast of Port Hedland, Australia moving SSW at 11 km/h parallel to the coast. Maximum significant wave hight was about 4 meters.

“Ports in Australia’s Pilbara region, through which almost half of the world’s seaborne iron ore is shipped, were sending ships out to sea on Saturday ahead of a tropical cyclone that is forecast to reach the coast by Tuesday,” reported Reuters.

More than 40 vessels in the anchorages and harbor at Port Hedland will be leaving by early Sunday, according to the port authorities.

UPDATE
Embedded Thunderstorms

“A large area of embedded thunderstorms over the Kimberley, the western Top End and waters to the north, is associated with Tropical Cyclone Christine,” said  Australian BOM.

BOM has issued a  Cyclone Warning for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Whim Creek, including Broome and Port Hedland and a Cyclone Watch for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth, including Karratha and Onslow, extending inland to Paraburdoo, Western Australia (WA).