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STORM UPDATE: Ida Coming Back?

Posted by feww on November 10, 2009

What are the chances of Ida coming back?

At 06:00 UTC (12:00 AM CST) TS Ida was located about 150 km (95 miles) south-southwest of  Mobile Alabama.

Dangerous storm tide created by Ida will raise water levels by up to 1.5 meter ( 5 feet) above ground along the coast near and to the East of where storm center makes landfall, as well as in areas of onshore flow in southeastern Louisiana, NOAA NHC said. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

Summary of TS Ida Status:

As of 06:00 UTC Tue Nov 10  (12:00 AM CST)
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained winds :  96 km/h (60 mph)
Moving: N  (360 degrees) at  16 km/h (10 mph)
Min pressure: 29.47 inches (998 mb)

What are the chances of Ida Coming Back?

What’s the probability of Ida doing a U-Turn, restrengthening into a hurricane-force storm  for a third time, and slamming into the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, again?

FEWW Moderators believe there’s a 1 in 5 chance [P=0.2] that remnants of Idea could be pinwheeled back into the Gulf of Mexico by a slowly developing system to the east, moving NNW and striking the coast of Louisiana, and further to the west, with renewed intensity.


Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image and Animation


Click image to animate.

anov 10 - 10-45UTC vn-l
GOES AVNCOLOR Enhancement – Still image Dated as inset. Click image to enlarge and update.

Storm Ida – Earth Observatory
ida_trm_2009313
Ida captured by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite on November 9 at 6:17 a.m. U.S. Central Time. Though Ida was still a hurricane, it was quickly weakening. While spots of heavy rain remain, the storm’s circular organization is no longer apparent. NASA image courtesy Hal Pierce, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek, NASA’s Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.

Cumulative Wind History

Ida 10Nov 211312P_sm
Click image to enlarge.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

ida 10nov 211312
Click image to enlarge.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Ida 10 Nov 211312W5_NL_sm
Click image to enlarge.

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