VOLCANIC HAZARDS
KILAUEA JUNE 27TH LAVA FLOW
STATE OF EMERGENCY PROCLAMATION
MASS EVACUATIONS
LOSS OF HABITAT
CROP DESTRUCTION
SCENARIOS 989, 900, 797, 787, 707, 444, 070, 047, 017, 07, 02
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Kilauea Lava Flow: June 27th lava flow continues to advance NE at 120 m/day
The lava flow out of the continuously erupting Kilauea Volcano is slowly advancing downslope toward the town of Pāhoa (population: ~1,000) on the Big Island.
About 4,500 people could be affected by the lava flow in the coming days.
Tuesday Oct0ber 7, 2014 (UTC). Civil Defense Message: “This morning’s assessment shows that the flow front continues to be active and has advanced approximately 150 yards since yesterday. The narrow flow front is moving along the tree line and the burning activity is producing a significant amount of smoke. There is no brush fire threat at this time and the burning is limited to the edges of the flow only. Due to a light southwest wind this morning the vog and smoke conditions were moderate to heavy across lower Puna to Hilo.”
[Note: Vog, a type of air pollution, is formed when sulfur dioxide and other gases and particles emitted by an erupting volcano react with oxygen and air moisture in the sunlight.]
Flow front continues advancing northeast, triggers brush fire. The June 27th lava flow remains active, and the flow front continues to advance towards the northeast along the forest boundary. Today, the flow front consisted of a narrow lobe moving through thick forest. The flow front was 1.7 km (1.1 miles) upslope of Apaʻa St., and 2.7 km (1.7 miles) from Pāhoa Village Road. The lava flow also triggered a brush fire that was active north of the flow front Monday afternoon local time [HAST= UTC -10 hrs.]
Kilauea Status Reports
Issued: Monday, October 6, 2014, 6:42 PM HST (Tuesday, 2014/10/07/04:42UTC)
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO)
Notice Number: 2014/H13
Location: N 19 deg 25 min, W 155 deg 17 min
Elevation: 4091 ft (1,247 m)
Area: HI Hawaii and Pacific Ocean
Current Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Volcanic Activity Summary: The June 27th flow remains active, with a narrow flow about 115 m (230 ft) wide moving downslope about 120 m/day (390 ft/day) since October 3.
At the average rate of advancement of 120 m/day, the lava could reach Apa`a St. in about 16 days. The advance rate of the June 27th flow has varied significantly during the past month, meaning this projection is subject to change. HVO’s next overflight is scheduled for Wednesday, October 8.
Recent Observations by HVO: The lava flow has continued to advance northeast since October 3 at about 120 m/day (390 ft/day). The leading edge is now about 1.7 km (1.1 mi) straight-line distance from Apa`a St.
Hazard Analysis by HVO: The lava flow from the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent is active, and lava is being supplied to the flow front, which is slowly advancing downslope toward Pāhoa town, which is located in the Puna District of the County of Hawai`i.
Puʻu ʻŌʻō Observations: There was little net change in ground tilt at Pu’u O’o over the past day. Glow was visible overnight above several outgassing openings in the crater floor. The most recent sulfur-dioxide emission-rate measurement for the East Rift Zone was 550 tonnes per day (from all sources) on September 25, 2014. Seismic tremor is low and constant.
Summit Observations: Deflationary tilt at Kīlauea’s summit continues this morning along with a decrease in the lava lake level at the summit vent. There was no major change in seismicity on Kilauea over the past day; seismic tremor at the summit remained low and varied with changes in spattering on the surface of the lava lake. GPS receivers spanning the summit caldera recorded about 5 cm (2 in) of extension between early May and early July. Since then, little significant extension or contraction has occurred. During the week ending on September 30, 2014, the elevated summit sulfur-dioxide emission rate was measured at 3,600–5,200 tonnes/day (see caveat below), and a small amount of particulate material was carried aloft by the plume.
Remarks [Source: HVO] : The Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō vent in the East Rift Zone of Kīlauea Volcano began erupting on January 3, 1983, and has continued erupting for more than 31 years, with the majority of lava flows advancing to the south. Over the past two years, lava flows have issued from the vent toward the northeast. The June 27th flow is the most recent of these flows and the first to threaten a residential area since 2010-2011. On June 27, 2014, new vents opened on the northeast flank of the Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō cone and fed a narrow lava flow to the east-northeast. On August 18, the flow entered a ground crack, traveled underground for several days, then resurfaced to form a small lava pad. This sequence was repeated three more times over the following days with lava entering and filling other cracks before reappearing at the surface, in two of the cases farther downslope. Lava emerged from the last crack on September 6, forming a surface flow that initially moved to the north, then to the northeast, at a rate of 400 m/day (1,300 ft/day). The flow slowed thereafter and, between September 12 and 19, the rate of advancement varied, averaging 225 m/day (740 ft/day). The flow front stalled by September 22, but new breakouts behind the flow front began to push forward, overtaking the stalled front on September 29 and advancing 120 m/day (390 ft) between October 3 and 6. [Source: HVO]
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