Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
Posted by feww on February 18, 2010
TC GELANE Strengthens to a Category 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale
With sustained winds of about 170 km/hr, Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) is now a Category 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale. Fire-Earth forecasts the cyclone to reach Category 4A strength, possibly stronger, within the next 36 hours.
Cyclone GELANE. IR satellite images (NHC Enhancement). 4km resolution. Source: UW-CIMSS. Click images to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details
- Date/Time: 18 February 2010 – 00:01 UTC
- Position: Near 14.3ºS, 61.6ºE
- Sustained Movement: 150 degrees
- Forward speed: 11 km/hr ( 6 kt)
- The Cyclone has been tracking SOUTH-SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
Current Wind Distribution:
- Maximum Sustained winds: 170km/hr (92 kt)
- Maximum Gusts: ~ 205 km/hr (~ 110 kt)
- GELANE is currently a Cat. 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale
Wave Height and Location:
- Maximum significant wave height: ~ 8m (24 ft)
- Location: TC GELANE was located about 970 km (~ 525 NM) NE of Réunion island.
- Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others
See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal
Fire Earth 
Storm GELANE – FINAL UPDATE (Feb 22) « Fire Earth said
[…] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]
Fire Tornado said
Cyclone Gelane will surely pass over Mauritius.
feww said
There’s a strong probability that it might, but not certainty!
You should brace yourselves, however, for strong winds, lots of rain and potential flooding, even if the cyclone doesn’t make a landfall on Mauritius.
Stay in touch, if you can.
Best of luck!
Cyclone GELANE – UPDATE 3 (Feb 20) « Fire Earth said
[…] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]
Fire Earth said
[…] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]
Indra Gordon said
[Unrelated comment. Edited by Moderator.]
Horrebow said
Just browsing, as the Mauritius met service always seems to go “off-line” when a Cyclone is around.
Government censorship?
feww said
“Government censorship?”
Perhaps their system can’t cope with the overload.
CYCLONE GELANE: AVOID ME IF YOU CAN « Fire Earth said
[…] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]
Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19) « Fire Earth said
[…] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]
feww said
Forecast by JTWC:
Date: Feb 18
Time: Before 11:00UTC
POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND MAINTAINED A COMPACT SYMMETRICAL AREA
OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE 172330Z FIX FROM PGTW AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES RANGING
FROM T4.0 TO T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS
– THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC GELANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE STR. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASING VWS. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE TRACKS THE
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WITH UKMET SKEWING THE TRACK WEST OF THE
PACK THEN ABRUPTLY MOVING IT DUE EAST AFTER TAU 48. NOGAPS IS NOTABLY
THE FASTEST OF THE GROUP. THIS FORECAST IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN
CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP ON THE MID-TRACK BEFORE IT SPEEDS UP
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND
190300Z.//
james sobha said
How many people were dead during the cyclone