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Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)

Posted by feww on February 18, 2010

TC GELANE Strengthens to a Category 2B Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale

With sustained winds of about 170 km/hr, Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) is now a Category 2B Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. Fire-Earth forecasts the cyclone to reach Category 4A strength, possibly stronger, within the next 36 hours.


Cyclone GELANE.
IR satellite images (NHC Enhancement). 4km resolution. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

  • Date/Time: 18 February 2010 –  00:01 UTC
  • Position:  Near 14.3ºS, 61.6ºE
  • Sustained Movement: 150  degrees
  • Forward speed:  11 km/hr ( 6 kt)
  • The Cyclone has been tracking  SOUTH-SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.

Current Wind Distribution:

  • Maximum Sustained winds:  170km/hr (92 kt)
  • Maximum Gusts:  ~ 205 km/hr (~ 110 kt)
  • GELANE is currently a Cat. 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

  • Maximum significant wave height: ~ 8m (24 ft)
  • Location: TC GELANE was located about 970 km (~ 525 NM) NE of Réunion island.
  • Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

12 Responses to “Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)”

  1. […] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]

  2. Fire Tornado said

    Cyclone Gelane will surely pass over Mauritius.

    • feww said

      There’s a strong probability that it might, but not certainty!
      You should brace yourselves, however, for strong winds, lots of rain and potential flooding, even if the cyclone doesn’t make a landfall on Mauritius.
      Stay in touch, if you can.
      Best of luck!

  3. […] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]

  4. Fire Earth said

    […] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]

  5. Indra Gordon said

    [Unrelated comment. Edited by Moderator.]

  6. Horrebow said

    Just browsing, as the Mauritius met service always seems to go “off-line” when a Cyclone is around.
    Government censorship?

  7. […] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]

  8. […] Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18) […]

  9. feww said

    Forecast by JTWC:
    Date: Feb 18
    Time: Before 11:00UTC

    POSITION NEAR 14.9S 62.0E.
    TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GELANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM
    NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
    OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
    HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND MAINTAINED A COMPACT SYMMETRICAL AREA
    OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT
    POSITION IS BASED ON THE 172330Z FIX FROM PGTW AND THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES RANGING
    FROM T4.0 TO T4.5. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO
    THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 16S IS BETWEEN TWO COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS
    – THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC GELANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
    TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO THE STR. AS THE
    SYSTEM TRACKS MORE POLEWARD, IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO
    INCREASING VWS. THE MAJORITY OF AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE TRACKS THE
    SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT WITH UKMET SKEWING THE TRACK WEST OF THE
    PACK THEN ABRUPTLY MOVING IT DUE EAST AFTER TAU 48. NOGAPS IS NOTABLY
    THE FASTEST OF THE GROUP. THIS FORECAST IS INITIALLY SLOWER THAN
    CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP ON THE MID-TRACK BEFORE IT SPEEDS UP
    SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF CONSENSUS AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
    WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND
    190300Z.//

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