Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems

Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) skyrockets to a new high

The FIRE-EARTH/CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, climbed to a critically high level of 323 on July 1, 2013. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment exceeded 3.23 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.

• The index is rising exponentially.
• HIoN has risen 38 points, or more than 13 percent, since July 2012 when it reached 285.
• The index was less than 80 in 1960, and rose to about 100 in 1980.

“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”

Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960  and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.

RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity, caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, which is leading to a total collapse.

Status as of End June 2012

•  As of end-June 2012, the CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) was 285 !
• WARNING: RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS! July 4, 2012

.

July 6, 2013 – SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN –

980 Days Left

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

• Human Impact
• Index of Human Impact on Nature
• Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying

West Nile Virus (WNV) – Update

219 deaths caused by WNV infections in the U.S. (YTD)

As of October 23, 2012,  five thousand two hundred and one [4,725 cases tabulated] human West Nile virus infections have been reported to CDC ArboNET from Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

• About 35% of the total cases were reported from Texas.

U.S. Update: West Nile virus (WNV) activity reported to ArboNET

Neuroinvasive disease cases comprise 51% of the reported total for the year with the remaining 49% recorded as nonneuroinvasive disease cases. Five hundred and sixty two WNV presumptive viremic blood donors (PVDs) have been reported at this time, CDC said.

Incidence by state map data description: West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease incidence maps reflect surveillance reports released by state and local health departments to CDC’s ArboNET system for public distribution. Map shows the incidence of human neuroinvasive disease (encephalitis, meningitis, and/or acute flaccid paralysis) by state for 2012 with shading ranging from .01 to 0.24, 0.25 to 0.49, 0.50 to 0.99, and greater than 1.0 per 100,000 population.

Related Links

• WNV Infections Continue Rising Posted October 22, 2012
• Rising Threat of Fungal Infections: Exserohilum Rostratum Posted October 11, 2012

• West Nile Virus Activity Intensifying Posted October 1, 2012

• United States: West Nile Virus (WNV) – [UPDATED Sept 20, 2012]
• WNV Cases Climb 71%, Deaths Up 89% Posted September 6, 2012
• U.S. Facing Worst Ever WNV Outbreak  Posted August 25, 2012

Disaster Calendar – 18 July 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,337 Days Left

[July 18, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,337 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 16 July 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,339 Days Left

[July 16, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,339 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 15 July 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,340 Days Left

[July 15, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,340 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 14 July 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,341 Days Left

[July 14, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,341 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Largest Ever U.S. Disaster Continues Unfolding

Climate related disasters in 2012 could prove costliest in history

FIRE-EARTH estimates the losses and damage from Drought 2012 and other climate-related disasters this year could exceed the combined toll of all ‘natural disasters’ that have occurred in the U.S. since 1980.

Map of U.S. counties declared as agricultural disaster areas under ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process,’ as of July 12, 2012

PRIMARY & CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES designated for 2012 crop disaster losses – As of 07/10/2012 – through Designation No. S3260 (Approved 07/03/2012)

Drought conditions have sparked disaster declarations in about 1,300 counties (1,016 primary, 278 contiguous) across the country, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported.

• U.S. drought has been intensified by the driest June in history and triple-digit temperatures on 10 out of 11 days recently.

• As of last week, Moderate to Extreme drought conditions prevailed in 52.56 percent of the Midwest, and 68.39 percent of the South. Moderate to Exceptional drought conditions covered 73.87% of High Plains, 64.15% of the West and 35.46% of the Southeast.

• The declaration covers 26 states across the country: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming and Hawaii.

Worsening Drought Conditions

• Missouri.  Worsening drought throughout Missouri has forced Gov. Nixon to ask the federal authorities for disaster declaration for all of the state’s 114 counties with the exception of independent city of St. Louis.
  • Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack announced on Wednesday a ‘Streamlined Disaster Designation Process’ a USDA rule change for Secretarial disaster designations that will allow nearly automatically a county to be declared a disaster area once it is categorized by the U.S. Drought Monitor as a severe drought for eight consecutive weeks during the growing season.

Drought Map for Missouri as of July 10, 2012. Source: Drought Monitor Archives

Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events

• Kyushu, Japan.   Flooding and landslides on the island of Kyushu have left dozens of people dead or missing.
  • At least 250,000 people are under mandatory evacuation orders, with an additional 150,000 advised to abandon their homes.
  • The evacuation orders affect the entire cities of Miyama, Yame and Yanagawa.
  • The worst affected areas are Fukuoka, Kumamoto, Ōita and Saga prefectures.
  • The city of Aso in Kumamoto prefecture received 754mm  (~ 30 inches) in under 72 hours.
  • Many rivers have burst their banks in the affected areas, unleashing deadly torrents of water, mud and debris throughout the region.

Links to Recent Related Entries

• Disaster Declared in More Counties Across 11 States Posted  July 13, 2012
• U.S. Drought Expands, Intensifies Posted July 12, 2012
• Drought Disaster Declared in 26 States Posted July 12, 2012

• Third of U.S. Corn in Poor or V. Poor Condition Posted on July 11, 2012
• Continental US Experienced Warmest 12 Months in 117 Years Posted  on July 10, 2012
• Drought: State of Emergency Declared in Wisconsin Posted on July 10, 2012
• U.S. Corn Belt Hit by Drought, Heat Wave Posted on July 9, 2012

• Record Heatwave Kills Dozens in U.S. Posted on July 8, 2012
• Drought Disaster Declared in Montana Posted on July 5, 2012
• Colorado Declared Agri Disaster Area Posted on July 4, 2012

• Disaster Declared in 94 Counties across 4 States Posted on July 3, 2012
• Deadly Heat Blankets Eastern U.S. Posted on July 2, 2012
• States of Emergency Declared in 4 States and DC as Storm Death Toll Rises Posted  on July 1, 2012
• Deadly Heat Wave Affects Third of U.S. Population Posted on June 30, 2012
• The record-setting heat wave continues to expand Posted on June 30, 2012
• Explosive Wildfires Continue Erupting Across the U.S. Posted on June 29, 2012
• Destructive Wildfire Activity Intensifies in Colorado Posted on June 28, 2012
• Drought 2012 Posted on January 8, 2012

Disaster Calendar – 13 July 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,342 Days Left

[July 13, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,342 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 6 July 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,349 Days Left

[July 6, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,349 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

WARNING: RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity that is caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, leading to a total collapse.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• Human Impact
• Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

Up to Half Million People Displaced by Flooding in Kenya

Extreme rain events flood dozens of rivers in Kenya, leaving at least 50 dead and up to 1/2 million people displaced

Flash floods and landslides in Kenya have so far killed at least 50 people in the capital Nairobi, destroying thousands of homes, businesses, and public infrastructure, spoiling crops and food stocks, and leaving  about half a million people displaced.

Most parts of the country have received significant rainfall of up to 50mm per day since late April. Heavy rains are expected to continue, especially in the central, western and coastal areas through end of June, reports said.

Recurring cycles of drought and deluge have plagued Kenya since the 1970s.

Other Global Disasters, Significant Events

• Brazil.  A severe drought is affecting at least 1,100 towns in NE Brazil, devastating crops and threatening the lives of local residents and livestock.  In rural areas ‘water wars’ have erupted, claiming an average of one life per day, reports said.
  • Drought has devastated farm output and destroyed about half of the region’s livestock.
  • The drought is said to be Brazil’s worst in living memory.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Schmallenberg Virus Continues to Surge in Europe

More EU farms infected by Schmallenberg virus

• Germany.  Some 1,481 farms across Germany had reported animals testing positive for the virus as of May 14, 2012, including 92 new farms.
• France.  France reported infections on 1,471 farms on May 11, including 105 new cases.
• Belgium.  Some 477  farms had reported SBV by May 2, 2012, including 33 new farms from a week earlier.
• Netherlands.  At least 339 farms have reported SBV  as of May 11, 2012.
• U.K. As of May 14, some 258 UK farms had reported SBV including two new farms, one in the Channel Islands and one in Buckinghamshire, a new addition to the list of counties reporting affected animals, said DEFRA.
• Luxemburg, Spain, Italy and other European countries. No reliable statistics available!

Related Links

• Next Mutations of SBV May Be Even Deadlier Posted on May 8, 201

• Schmallenberg Virus Outbreak: April 3 Update Posted on April 3, 2012
• Schmallenberg Virus Outbreak – UPDATE: March 25
• Schmallenberg virus up by more than 10 percent in 7 days
• Schmallenberg Virus Continues Spreading Posted on March 15, 2012

• Schmallenberg virus entry for March 10
• Schmallenberg virus entry for March 6
• Schmallenberg Virus Hits 7 Countries posted on February 22, 2012

Other Global Disasters, Significant Events

• Hunan Province, China. At least 20,078 cases of HFMD infections were reported in Hunan province in April, with 19 fatalities.
  • Continuous rain has affected more than 2.91 million people in 50 of the province’s counties as of May 14, said a report.

Original caption: Photo taken on May 13, 2012 shows a bridge that collapsed after being hit by flood in Pingjiang County, central-south China’s Hunan Province, May 13, 2012. Torrential rain that struck south China since May 11 has affected the daily lives of 2.91 million residents within Hunan as of Monday noon. Direct economic losses caused by the flood reached 2.88 billion yuan (456.2 million U.S. dollars), according to provincial flood control authorities. (Xinhua/Bai Yu). Image may be subject to copyright.  More images…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 11 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,405 Days Left

[11 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,405 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 10 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,406 Days Left

[10 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,406 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar 2012 – 9 May

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,407 Days Left

[9 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,407 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 8 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,408 Days Left

[8 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,408 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Next Mutations of SBV May Be Even Deadlier

Schmallenberg Virus: “This is a warning to the whole world”

Schmallenberg virus is a new front in human’s losing war against the unknown. “This is a warning to the whole world,” said Alberto Laddomada, head of the European Commission’s Animal Health Unit.

The European Center of Disease Prevention and Control says it is “unlikely” that SBV could infect humans; however, the possibility “cannot be excluded at this stage.”

The numbers of reported SBV infections across Europe are peaking as the lambing season finishes; however, the next wave of SBV attack could prove even deadlier due to the unpredictability of viral mutations.

• Germany.  Some 1,389  farms across Germany had reported animals testing positive for the virus as of May 7, 2012, including 78 new farms.
• France.  France has reported infections on 1,412 farms, including 45 new cases since last week.
• Belgium.  Some 477  farms had reported SBV by May 2, 2012, including 33 new farms from a week earlier.
• Netherlands.  At least 331 farms have reported SBV  as of May 4, 2012.
• U.K. As of May 8, some 256 UK farms have reported SBV: 36 in cattle and 220 in sheep (5 new farms since April 27, 2012).
• Luxemburg, Spain, Italy and other European countries. No reliable statistics available!

Related Links

• Schmallenberg Virus Outbreak: April 3 Update Posted on April 3, 2012
• Schmallenberg Virus Outbreak – UPDATE: March 25
• Schmallenberg virus up by more than 10 percent in 7 days
• Schmallenberg Virus Continues Spreading Posted on March 15, 2012

• Schmallenberg virus entry for March 10
• Schmallenberg virus entry for March 6
• Schmallenberg Virus Hits 7 Countries posted on February 22, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 7 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,409 Days Left

[7 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,409 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 6 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,410 Days Left

[6 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,410 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 5 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,411 Days Left

[5 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,411 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar