El Niño Update [24 Aug 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 24 August 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have been positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, there has been little change in SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific

• During late-June through mid-August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean.
• The most recent period shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the west-central Pacific.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).

Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]

• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009
• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season