2015 Could Become Warmest Year on Record

Three More Global Temperature Records Broken —NOAA

State of the Climate Report: November 2015

• November 2015 was warmest November on record Globally
• September–November was the warmest such period
• Year-to-date was record warm

The November average temperature across land and ocean surfaces (SST) rose  1.75°F (0.97°C) above the 20th century average of 12.9°C (55.2°F), the highest for November in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2013 by 0.27°F (0.15°C).

• November warmth broke a monthly global temperature record for the seventh consecutive month.

• The temperature departure from average for November is also the second highest among all months in the 136-year period of record. The highest departure of 0.99°C (1.79°F) occurred last month.

• Globally-averaged land surface temperature for November was 2.36°F (1.31°C) above the 20th century average.

• Globally-averaged SST was 1.51°F (0.84°C) above the 20th century average. This was the highest for November in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.36°F (0.20°C).

• The average Arctic sea ice extent for November 2015 was 360,000 square miles (~ 930,000km² ), or 8.3 percent below the 1981–2010 average. This was the sixth smallest November extent since records began in 1979.

• Antarctic sea ice extent during November 2015 was 80,000 square miles (1.2 percent) above the 1981–2010 average, the 14th largest for November in the 37-year period of record.

November 2015 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in degrees Celsius

Autumn Temperatures

Additionally, September, October, and November 2015 had the three highest monthly temperature departures on record.

Out of 1,630 monthly records (1880–2015 record):

• Eight months of 2015 are among the 10 highest monthly temperature departures from their respective averages.

• All 11 months of 2015  so far are among the 25 highest.

Selected Climate Events & Anomalies for November 2015

September–November  Temperature

The September–November seasonal temperature was 0.96°C (1.73°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.0°C (57.1°F). This marks the highest departure from average for the season in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.21°C (0.38°F).

The globally-averaged temperature across land surfaces was also the highest on record for September–November, at 1.27°C (2.29°F) above the 20^th century average of 9.1°C (48.3°F).

• Most of the Americas from Mexico through the northern half of South America were record warm, as were scattered regions across Africa, southern and southeastern Asia, and southern Australia.

• Across the world’s oceans, the September–November average sea surface temperature was 0.84°C (1.51°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.0°C (60.7°F), the highest for September–November on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.27°C (0.15°F).

Year-to-date Temperature

The first 11 months of 2015 were the warmest such period on record across the world’s land and ocean surfaces, at 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.0°C (57.2°F), surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.14°C (0.25°F).

• Nine of the first eleven months in 2015 have been record warm for their respective months, with January second warmest for January and April third warmest.

• The December global temperature would have to be at least 0.81°C (1.46°F) below average—or 0.24°C (0.43°F) colder than the current record low December temperature of 1916—for 2015 to not become the warmest year in the 136-year period of record.

The average global sea surface temperature for the year-to-date was the highest for January–November in the 136-year period of record, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above average, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.09°C (0.16°F).

The average land surface temperature was also record high, at 1.27°C (2.29°F) above average, surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.15°C (0.27°F).

January–November 2015 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for November 2015, published online December 2015, retrieved on December 18, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201511.

Number of Forcibly Displaced People Will Exceed 60 Million

Significant worldwide rise in forced displacement in first half 2015 —UNHCR

One in every 122 humans is today someone who has been forced to flee their homes.

More refugees, asylum-seekers, and people forced to flee inside their own countries than ever before, according to UNHCR’s Mid-Year Trends 2015 report.

With almost a million people having crossed the Mediterranean as refugees and migrants so far this year, and conflicts in Syria and elsewhere continuing to generate staggering levels of human suffering, 2015 is likely to exceed all previous records for global forced displacement, UNHCR warned in a new report today.

Covering the period from January to end June, the report looks at worldwide displacement resulting from conflict and persecution, and “shows markers firmly in the red in each of the three major categories of displacement —refugees, asylum-seekers, and people forced to flee inside their own countries.

The global refugee total, which a year ago was 19.5 million, had as of mid-2015 passed the 20 million threshold (20.2 million) for the first time since 1992.

Asylum applications climbed 78% (993,600 applicants) over the same period in 2014, while the numbers of internally displaced people reached an estimated 34 million, a jump of 2 million.

Taking into account that the report covers only internally displaced people protected by UNHCR (the global total including people both in and outside UNHCR’s care is only available in mid-2016), 2015 is on track to see worldwide forced displacement exceeding 60 million for the first time—1 in every 122 humans is today someone who has been forced to flee their home.

Meanwhile, the number of refugees increased by 839,000 in the first six months of 2015 – or an average of about 4,600 people every day.

“Forced displacement is now profoundly affecting our times,” UN refugee chief Antonio Guterres said in a statement. “Never has there been a greater need for tolerance, compassion and solidarity with people who have lost everything.”

Europe’s influx of refugees arriving by boat via the Mediterranean is only partly reflected in the report, mainly as arrivals there have escalated in the second half of 2015,  and outside the period covered by the report.

Nonetheless, in the first six months of 2015 Germany was the world’s biggest recipient of new asylum claims – 159,000, close to the entire total for all of 2014. The second largest recipient was the Russian Federation with 100,000 claims, mainly people fleeing the conflict in Ukraine.

If you become a refugee today your chances of ever returning home are lower than at any time in more than 3 decades, said the report.

Related Links

• World at War: One in Every 122 Humans is a Refugee  June 18, 2015
• The Global Trends report is available at http://unhcr.org/556725e69.html
• UNHCR’s Mid-Year Trends 2015 report:  http://unhcr.org/myt15/#_ga=1.140908210.1672226646.1450436139

HAZARDOUS SMOG: BEIJING ISSUES 2ND EVER RED ALERT

Heavy smog to choke Beijing again – Sat. through Tue.

“The red alert, the most serious level, will last from 7 a.m. Saturday to 12 p.m. Tuesday, limiting vehicles on roads according to odd-even license plate numbers and banning fireworks and outdoor barbecue, the Beijing municipal heavy pollution emergency response headquarters said on Friday,” said a report.

The smog event will be worse than the previous spell between Dec. 6 and 9, when the pollution index exceeded 500, reported the National Meteorological Center on Thursday.

The smog is expected to blanket a sizable portion of the country, encompassing more than a dozen major cities and surrounding areas.

Beijing authorities have advised residents to avoid outdoor activity and for schools to stop classes.

The red alert—the highest of a four-level alert system, operating since 2 years ago—also triggers restrictions on industrial operation, construction work and vehicle use.

Beijing residents have been advised to avoid outdoor activity and kindergartens, primary and middle schools are expected to suspend classes during the alert, said the report.

Strong Earthquake Strikes near Tres Picos, Mexico

M 6.6 quake occurs 9km ENE of Tres Picos, Mexico

Centered at 15.888°N, 93.446°W the  quake occurred at a depth 97.8km, reported USGS/EHP.

This event could be a foreshock, according to FIRE-EARTH.

EQ Details

Magnitude: 6.6Mw
Location: 15.888°N, 93.446°W; depth = 97.8km
Time: 2015-12-17 19:49:54 (UTC)
Nearby Cities:

• 9km (6mi) ENE of Tres Picos, Mexico
• 31km (19mi) NW of Pijijiapan, Mexico
• 39km (24mi) ESE of Tonala, Mexico
• 61km (38mi) SE of Arriaga, Mexico
• 343km (213mi) WNW of Guatemala City, Guatemala