Could LUPIT Do a U-Turn?

Could LUPIT Strengthen to a Typhoon AND Do a U-Turn?

The answer is yes and yes, but only just!

FEWW Moderators believe there’s a 30 percent probability that Tropical Cyclone LUPIT could strengthen to a typhoon force again, and it might do a u-turn heading back toward Luzon with a probability of about 10 percent.

As of 4:00 pm local time, October 24, 2009, Tropical Storm LUPIT (“RAMIL”) was located at 22.8°N, 125.9°E, or about 425 km Northeast of Basco, Batanes with maximum winds of 95 km/h and gusts of up to 120 km/h. Nearly all models suggest that LUPIT will move Northeast at 15 km/h.

Typhoon Lupit – DOST-PAGASA MTSAT-EIR Satellite Image frozen at 12:30 UTC  on 24 Oct. 2009. Click image to enlarge and update.

LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather.  Click image to enlarge .

LUPIT Chart. Source: DOST-PAGASA of the Philippines. Click image to enlarge and update.

• LUPIT 3-day projected track.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Photo of LUPIT Near Northern Luzon
• UPDATE: Typhoon LUPIT Arrives
• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?

• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

What’s Good for the Great Lakes Goose …

Quotes for the Day:

NYC Water Pollution and NatGas Drilling

“The nine million New York residents who depend upon Catskill-Delaware water deserve the same amount of protection as those New Yorkers who depend upon Great Lakes surface waters.” —New York City’s acting environmental commissioner

It would cost the city an  estimated $10 billion to build a filtration and treatment plant, which would cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year to maintain, cleaning the pollution that would be created as a result of natgas drilling near the upstate watershed, which supplies 90 percent of its drinking water. That’s a 30 percent hike in water and sewer rates for the New Yorkers.

“This is not a risk that is worth taking when we are talking about something as fundamental as the city’s water supply…  We didn’t have the money to do that before the recession, and we certainly don’t have the money to do it now.” —City Council Speaker Christine Quinn

Related Links:

• EPA admits water contaminated near gas-drilling sites

• Diarrhea Water
• Exxon Pays Peanuts to the Monkeys
• Magnitude 4.0 quake hits Utah near gas fields
• Oil Drilling Likely Caused Texas Earthquake
• NY Quakes Probably Gas Drilling Related

• Earthquake Cluster Hits Yellowstone National Park
• If Sunflower CEO Wants More Coal Power at Holcomb
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [2 July 2009]
• Volcanoes [FEWW Links]
• Earthquakes

Impact of El Niño and La Niña on Rainfall

How El Niño and La Niña affect Rainfall

El Niño 1997

La Niña, 1988

El Niño and its counterpart La Niña alter weather patterns across the world. These images show the strongest El Niño and La Niña events of the past twenty years and their impact on rainfall over North and South America.

The top image pair shows the El Niño event of 1997, and the direct correlation between warm surface waters and rainfall. The 1997 El Niño was unusually strong and brought heavy rain to northwest South America and the southern United States. Cooler ocean temperatures caused drought in Australia and Indonesia, as shown in the 1997 rainfall anomaly image.

The lower image pair shows La Niña in 1988 . La Niña occurs when the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America cools. The unusually cold ocean cools the atmosphere above it. The cool, dense air means less  rain falls over the cold waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Image reveals that the drought reached Peru and Ecuador in northwest South America. Globally, La Niña causes unusually heavy rain in India, Southeast Asia, Australia, and southeastern Africa.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Rob Simmon and Jesse Allen, based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited for brevity by FEWW]

Related Links:

• El Niño