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Archive for October 22nd, 2009

El Niño Update [20 Oct 2009]

Posted by feww on October 22, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  19  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~ 1.2ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

trop OLr and wind anom -sml

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

  • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
  • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.


  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

Posted in australia, Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, western tropical pacific ocean | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

UPDATE: Typhoon LUPIT Arrives

Posted by feww on October 22, 2009

Typhoon LUPIT: 22 October 2009


  • Position: At 4:00 am (local time) Typhoon LUPIT (locally known as “RAMIL”) was located 350 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan.
  • Coordinates: 19.0°N, 125.3°E
  • Maximum sustained winds: 160 km/h
  • Max Wind gusts:  195 km/h
  • Movement: It is forecast to move in West-Southwesterly direction (240 degrees) at 11 km/h (6 kt)

LUPIT MTSAT IR1 0030-22-10-09 cntr
Typhoon Lupit – DOST-PAGASA MTSAT-EIR Satellite Image for 8 am local time (00:30 UTC)  22 Oct. 2009. Still image. Click image to enlarge and update.

LUPIT- RAMIL - track 22-10-09

LUPIT Track by Philippines Dost-Pagasa.

Forecast Positions/Outlook (PAGASA):

  • Friday morning:  250 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
  • Saturday morning: 180 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
  • Sunday morning: 110 km East of Aparri, Cagayan

PAGASA Forecast

  • Northern Luzon will have stormy weather while Central Luzon will experience rains and occasional gusty winds with moderate to rough seas. The rest of Luzon will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms while Visayas and Mindanao will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.
  • Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northwest to Southwest will prevail over Visayas and the rest of Luzon and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the West to Southwest with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon “RAMIL” (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009

  • Signal No. 3  (100-185 kph winds)
    • Batanes Group
    • Cagayan
    • Calayan Island
    • Babuyan Islands
    • Apayao
    • Kalinga
    • Isabela
  • Signal No.  2 (60-100 kph winds)
    • Ilocos Norte
    • Ilocos Sur
    • Abra
    • Mt. Province
    • Ifugao
    • Benguet
    • La Union
    • Nueva Vizcaya
    • Quirino
    • Aurora
  • Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
    • Pangasinan
    • Tarlac
    • Nueva Ecija
    • Zambales
    • Pampanga
    • Bulacan
    • Northern Quezon
    • Polillo Islands

Gale Warning: Issued by PAGASA at: 5:00 a.m., Today, 22 October 2009

  • Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon and the Western seaboard of Luzon.
  • Conditions are forecast as “rough” to “very rough” with waves of up to 5-meter high.
  • Areas affected:

Recent History

Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?

Typhoon LUPIT – 21 Oct 2009

  • How long will LUPIT loiter around Luzon

  • How much more rain will it dump?

  • Will LUPIT move away and come back, AGAIN!

At 00:00 UTC – Oct 21, 2009
Max Winds:   160km/h
(85 knots)  Category: 2
Max Gusts:  195 km/h
20.5ºN 128.9ºE
Movement past six hours:
280 degrees at 15 km/h (08 kts)
Location: About 925 km (500 kts) NE of Manila Philippines

Summary of Storm Activity

Lupit is tracking westward steered by a subtropical ridge extension to the north. Deep convection has become more organized near the storm center over the past six hours, JTWC reported.

LUPIT - 21 -10 - 09
Typhoon LUPIT – MTSAT Still image.

track - unisys
LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather.  Click image to enlarge and update.

History Color Code – The chart color codes intensity (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale)
wind force table - SSS
NOTE: Pressures are in millibars and winds are in knots where one knot is equal to 1.15 mph. Source: UniSys Weather

LUPIT -  JTWC 5-day track
LUPIT 5-day track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 Oct 2009

22W_200530sams Large
Typhoon LUPIT (22W): JTWC/SATOP multispectral satellite image. October 20, 2009 at 05:00 UTC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 October 2009, at 09:00UTC

Position: 20.4ºN, 129.3ºE
Location: Approximately 1,110 km (600 NM) northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Movement:  WNW at about 15km/h (8 knots)
Center: LUPIT’s Eye has once again become visible
System Characteristics: LUPIT has good radial out flow
Maximum significant wave height:  ~ 11 meters (34 feet)
Max sustained winds: 175km/h (95 knots)
Max gusts: 215 km/h (115 knots)

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in Apayao, Babuyan Islands, Batanes Group, Cagayan, Calayan Island, Isabela, Kalinga, LUPIT warning | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Gulf of Mexico receives its regular ration of oil spill

Posted by feww on October 22, 2009

Tanker collision near Texas spills oil into Gulf

About 20.000 gallons of the fuel were spilled into the Gulf of Mexico after a crude oil tanker collided with a service vessel in the Gulf of Mexico near Texas, the U.S. Coast Guard said on Wednesday.

“The accident occurred in rough seas late Tuesday after the tanker finished receiving crude oil from a supertanker too large to enter port 46 miles southeast of Galveston. Ship-to-ship oil transfers, called lightering , are common and often involve a third vessel servicing the operation.” Reuters reported.

The 820-foot (250-meter) Liberian-flagged, Russian-operated Krymsk, collided with the 166-foot lightering service vessel AET Endeavor, after the Krymsk had finished taking Arabian crude oil from a larger ship, the Vega Star.

A pierced fuel tank  caused the oil spill, believed to be No. 6 bunker fuel, officials said.

The tanker was carrying a cargo of more than 70,000 metric tons of crude, which escaped damage [this time,] a spokesman for Krymsk operator Novorossiysk was reported as saying.

Endeavor, owned by American Eagle Tankers, was not seriously damaged, reports said.


Krymsk, a Liberian-flagged tanker, operated by Russian Novorossiysk, after lightering Arabian crude oil from a supertanker, Vega Star, too large to enter port near Galveston, Texas, collided with one of its service ships spilling bunker fuel into the giant runoff and tailing pond south of Texas, aka the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile the magnitude of the Australian ecological disaster, the oil spill in Timor Sea, grows daily.

Related New Links:

Related Links:

More Links:

Posted in AET Endeavor, American Eagle Tankers, Arabian crude, crude oil, Krymsk, Novorossiysk, supertanker, Vega Star | Tagged: , , , , , | 1 Comment »