Japan nuclear disaster to last nine more months

NEW LEAKS MAY BE RAISING RADIATION in SEA

Nuclear disaster at Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant may continue for another nine months: TEPCO

Tokyo Electric Power Company, the operator of Japan’s stricken nuclear power plant Fukushima Dai-ichi says it planned to reduce radiation leaks in 3 months and to cool the reactors within another six months, NHK reported. 

“This is the biggest crisis since the founding of our company,” TEPCO Chairman Tsunehisa Katsumata said at a a news conference.

“Getting the nuclear plant under control, and the financial problems associated with that.” He added

“How we can overcome these problems is a difficult matter.”

The conference was broadcast by NHK amid reports that radiation levels in the seawater near Reactor 2 had risen to 6,500 times the legal limit on Friday, about 6 times higher than Thursday’s reading. TEPCO fears that the rise may be due to new leaks.

On April 12, Japanese authorities raised the measure of severity of the Fukushima NPP disaster to the maximum level of 7 on INES. (See below for details.)

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina – Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

THIS SECTION HAS BEEN REVISED AND POSTED AT

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

on April 18, 2011

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

• Official Death Toll: ~ 14,000
• Missing:  ~ 14,000
• Homeless: At least 155,000
• Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.

Related Links

• Global Tectonics Alert – April 9
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts