ARLENE: Tardy, Disorganized and Very Wet

ARLENE, the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, bringing  torrential rains to central Mexico

Tropical Storm ARLENE is expected to make landfall near Tuxpan, central Mexico early Thursday (local time)

ARLENE is currently located about 100km east of the town of Tuxpan in the Mexican state of Veracruz moving west (275 degrees, at a forward speed of about 10 km/hr); it has a maximum sustained winds of about 113 km/hr (61 kts),  just short of being a category 1 hurricane (119 km/hr) on the FEWW Hurricane Scale, with wind gusts of up to 140 km/hr. ARLENE could probably intensify to a hurricane force before landfall, NHC said.

Tropical Storm ARLENE with projected track – IR/WV Diff Satellite Image (4-km) resolution. Source: CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

TS ARLENE Summary of Details (as of posting)

• Location: ~ 100km east of the town of Tuxpan, Veracru, Meixco
• Position: ~ 21N, 94W
• Movement and speed: moving west (275 degrees,)  at a forward speed of about 10 km/hr
• Maximum sustained winds: 113 km/hr (61 kt)
• Wind gusts:  up to 140 km/hr (75 kt)
• Remarks: ARLENE could probably intensify to a hurricane force before landfall (NHC).

Related Links

• Satellite Imagery
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• GOES Imagery

Jellyfish force UK nuke plant shutdown

Swarms of jellyfish invade Torness nuke plant (Scotland) knocking reactors offline

Two reactors at EDF Energy’s Torness nuclear power plant on the Scottish east coast remained shut after swarms of jellyfish clogged the plant’s cooling water filters yesterday.

Located about 50km east of the city of Edinburgh, Scotland, and owned by France’s EDF Energy, the Torness Nuclear Power Station was commissioned in 1988. The plant’s two reactors have an installed capacity of about 1,360 MWe. Photo: license details.

“We are working to clear the jellyfish from the waters near the power station. This work, as well as monitoring the area for more jellyfish, is ongoing,” a spokesman for Britain’s largest nuclear power operator, EDF Energy, said.

Swarms of Jellyfish

“There are suggestions from some science data that over the past few years there has been an increase in swarms of jellyfish. It’s possible it’s linked to climate change,” said a plankton ecologist who specializes in jellyfish research at the Marine Scotland Science laboratory in Aberdeen.

“Overfishing of small fish which feed off jellyfish leaves them less exposed to natural predators and gives them more room to reproduce, the Marine Biological Association said.”

Previous Incidents at Torness Nuke

In August 2006, both units were forced to shut down after the water filters in the cooling system were blocked by seaweed.

For other reported incidents at the plant see:

• Quarterly statements of nuclear incidents at nuclear installations

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

• Japan (880)³
• United States (865)
• France (855)
• Taiwan (850)
• Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
• Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
• Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast. (Last UPDATED: June 26, 2011)

Related Links

• French Nuke Waste Plagues Siberia

• French Water!
• European Pressurized Water Reactor!
• All is NOT Well at Chernobyl
• Nuclear High Noon in the Atlantic Ocean
• Mafia Solves Nuclear Waste Problem
• Fish, Fish Eggs Holocaust
• This’s Got to Be the Year of Radioactive, Chemical and Oil Spills, Too!
• Another Hole in Areva’s Nuclear Cheese

Fire Surrounds Los Alamos Nuke Lab

LANL shuts down supercomputers as fire advances

Las Conchas fire explodes to more than 70,000 acres, attacking south and west of Los Alamos

The massive blaze has destroyed at least a dozen homes in Los Alamos County so far, officials said.

Meantime,  The Los Alamos National Lab (LANL) said it had shut down two of its largest supercomputers, as the massive blaze continued to burn nearby.

A team of Los Alamos employees have reportedly conducted preliminary analysis on air samples taken near the nuke lab on Tuesday.

“There is no additional material in the samples from lab activities or from our waste-management activities.”Said the lab director Charles McMillan.

In 2000, after Cerro Grande fire broke out, Los Alamos employees detected elevated levels of radioactive radon gas.

Las Conchas Fire map

Las Conchas Fire map June 29, 2011. Click image to enlarge. Original Map (PDF)

Las Conchas Fire Progression Map June 28, 2011. Click image to enlarge.

Flames above Los Alamos. Photo taken by Los Alamos National Laboratory on June 28, 2011. Some rights reserved

Volcanic Like Smoke Billowing out of Santa Fe National Forest. This image showing the Las Conchas wildfire raging in the Jemez Mountains of the Santa Fe National Forest in north-central New Mexico the was taken by a crew member aboard the ISS on June 27. The fire is  burning just southwest of LANL. Source: NASA.

Fire Summary:

• Name: Las Conchas Fire
  
• Date Started: 1 p.m., 6/26/2011
• Location: Approximately 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos off NM 4 at mile marker 35
• Fuels: Mixed Conifer, Ponderosa Pine. Fuel moisture is extremely low.
• Cause: Unknown – under investigation [The fire was reportedly ignited by a fallen power line]
• Size: 69,555 acres based on 06/29 infrared data
• Percent Contained: 3%
• Residences Destroyed: 12

Fire Update [from InciWeb]

Area Command Team 1 (Dan Oltrogge, Area Commander) and an additional Type 1 Incident Management Team (Dugger Hughes, Incident Commander) in-briefed with host agencies late yesterday. Firefighting efforts were broken in two zones. Rienarz’s Type 1 Incident Management Team will manage the north zone of the fire and Hughes’s Incident Management Team will manage the south zone. Crews are dealing with extremely dry fuels and potential threats from thunderstorms and dry lightning strikes.

Northwest – Firefighters scouted a potential fireline and burnout opportunities, including opportunities for aerial ignition on peaks to help moderate fire intensity along Valles Caldera 2 Road and Valles Caldera 9 Road. Firefighters will also continue to maintain a fire line using mop up methods along 4 Road to prevent the fire from spreading within the Valles Caldera National Preserve. Fire line construction will also continue toward the Cerro Pelado area.

East – Firefighters will be working along SR 501 and Ski Area Road on through Highway 4 to curb the fire from spreading east. Structural protection continues in Bandelier National Monument. Crews will also be working spot fires along Ski Area Road. A structure implementation plan was set in place for the Pajarito Ski Area. The Los Alamos Fire Department was brought in to provide added resources in the area.

A Sandoval County Assessment team is completing a post fire damage assessment. Their current assessment has documented twelve residences destroyed.

South side – The fire is backing down several drainages. Firefighters are scouting for potential fireline south of the fire and monitor the Alamo and Hondo Canyons, as well as the Sanchez and Capulin Canyon.

Current Evacuations:

City of Los Alamos – The acting Los Alamos County Administrator issued an evacuation order for the city of Los Alamos. The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque is offering shelter services for evacuating residents of Los Alamos. Los Alamos evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk. White Rock is currently under a voluntary evacuation.

The Santa Fe Animal Shelter and Humane Society and the Espanola Valley Humane Society will be taking in dogs, cats and other small household pets to help those displaced by the Las Conches Fire. They are also collecting names for those willing to host animals. For more information, please contact: Santa Fe (503) 983-4309, or Espanola (505) 753-8662.

The American Red Cross in New Mexico activated two official shelters in northern New Mexico: the Santa Claran Hotel & Casino in Espanola and the Cities of Gold Casino near Santa Fe. The American Red Cross (505) 265-8514 or 800-560-2302.

Pre-Evacuation Alert

If you live near the fire or near the Forest, you should always be ready for emergencies including evacuations, the three-step process is easy to remember and implement:

· Ready – Take personal responsibility and prepare before the threat of a wildland fire so your home is ready in case of a fire. Create defensible space by clearing brush away from your home. Use fire-resistant landscaping and harden your home with fire-safe construction measures. Assemble emergency supplies and belongings in a safe spot. Plan escapes routes. Make sure all those residing within the home know the plan of action.

· Set – Act immediately. Pack your vehicle with your emergency items. Remember your six P’s: people, personal computers, pets, pills, papers and pictures. Stay aware of the latest news and information on the fire from local media and your local fire department.

· Go – Leave early! Follow your personal action plan. Doing so will not only support your safety, but will allow firefighters to best maneuver resources to combat the fire.

Closures

NM 4 is closed at Jemez Falls Campground and at NM 501. NM 502 westbound into Los Alamos is now closed to all motorists. Access is controlled and limited to official traffic until further notification.

For a recorded update on evacuations and road closures, call a Santa Fe National Forest toll-free line: 877-971-FIRE.

Bureau of Land Management: The Bureau of Land Management’s Kasha-Katuwe Tent Rocks National Monument will close to the public. The monument isn’t currently threatened, but the road to the monument will be used by firefighters to access the southern flank of the fire.

Bandelier National Monument: The Bandelier National Monument will be closed indefinitely.

Los Alamos National Labs: The Los Alamos National Laboratory will be closed due to the fire. All laboratory facilities will be closed for all activities, and nonessential employees are directed to remain off site. Employees that are considered nonessential should not report to work unless specifically directed by their line managers. Employees should check local news sources, the LANL Update Hotline (505) 667-6622 and the LANL web page http://www.lanl.gov for updates. All radioactive and hazardous material is appropriately accounted for and protected. LANL staff is coordinating the on-site response and supporting the county and federal fire response.

Safety Message

The wildfire and burnout operations will continue to produce heavy smoke. Residents with respiratory problems in the path of smoke may want to consider relocating temporarily until smoke dissipates. Motorists should exercise caution due to reduced visibility.

Related Sites

• http://www.inciweb.org/
• http://www.nmfireinfo.com/
• http://www.twitter.com/T1SWIMT

Related Links:

• Las Conchas Fire Approaching Plutonium Dump Site

• Los Alamos Fire Explodes to 50,000 acres
• Fire Near Los Alamos Grows to 6,000 Acres
• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

The Wildfire that Broke Texas’s Back

Expecting Miracles !!

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated the entire state of Texas a disaster area with 213 of the states 254 counties declared as primary natural disaster areas, folowing one of the worst droughts on record.

The Lone Star State. Source: The Texas Forest Service. Click image to enlarge.

Since January 1, 2011, the drought, wildfires and other natural disasters have destroyed at least a third of the  corn, oats, wheat, pasture and forage crops in the Lone Star State.

The back-to-back disasters have also destroyed tens of thousands of cattle, horses and other farm animals, so far this year.

The High Five Interchange, Dallas, Texas. Source: Flickr. Some rights reserved.

Texas is the second largest U.S. state by area (695,620 sqkm), after Alaska, and second largest by population (pop: 21 million), behind California.

Drought Monitor Maps showing classification changes for selected time periods. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center/UNL. Click images to enlarge.

 

Map of below normal 28-day average streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of year (Texas). Source: USGS. Click images to enlarge.

 

Related Links

• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update
• Texas Dynamic Dyer Mill Fire Devours 50 Buildings
• U.S. Wildfire Update – June 17
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• Texas Wildfires – Update April 30
• Texas wildfire conditions may worsen
• Texas Wildfires Scorch 1.8 Million Acres
• TEXAS FIRES – April 21 Update
• Texas Fires: More Towns Evacuated
• TEXAS ON FIRE

Worst drought in living memory gripping Horn of Africa

Parts of Kenya and Somalia experiencing pre-famine conditions: UN

At least 10 million people in drought-stricken areas of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia and Uganda are currently faced with severe food crisis and high malnutrition rates, with  parts of Kenya and Somalia experiencing pre-famine conditions, and the situation is worsening, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA) said.

“Two consecutive poor rainy seasons have resulted in one of the driest years since 1950/51 in many pastoral zones,” a spokeswoman of the UNOCHA reported.

“There is no likelihood of improvement until 2012,” she said.

Child malnutrition rates in the worst affected areas exceed 30 percent- more than twice the emergency threshold of 15 percent, according to UNOCHA.

As food prices continue to surge in the region, more of the moderately poor households are being pushed over the edge, UNOCHA said.

Two consecutive poor rainy seasons in the eastern Horn of Africa since last year have resulted one of the driest years since 1950/51  in many pastoral areas. “The impacts of the drought have been exacerbated by high local cereal prices, excess livestock mortality, conflict and restricted humanitarian access in some areas,” said ReliefWeb.

Eastern Africa: Drought – Humanitarian Snapshot (as of 28 Jun 2011)

Source: UNOCHA. Click image to enlarge. Click here to view the original map (PDF)

Related Links

• Mass Die-offs

 

Las Conchas Fire Approaching Plutonium Dump Site

Massive Los Alamos blaze has consumed at least 61,000 acres, threatening plutonium waste storage

The blaze may have already reached the grounds of the LANL complex, and could reach a toxic dump site where 30,000 drums (6.25 million liters) of plutonium-contaminated waste are stored.

“Carl Beard, director of operations for the lab, said there has been no release of radioactive or hazardous materials into the environment and there was no immediate threat to public safety, ‘even in these extreme conditions.'” Said a report.

“The concern is that these drums will get so hot that they’ll burst,” Joni Arends, executive director of the Concerned Citizens for Nuclear Safety, told the AP news agency.

“That would put this toxic material into the plume,” she added.

Looking northwest from southern edge of municpal airport in Los Alamos. June 27, 2011. Photo by LANL phot-stream on Flickr

Volcanic-like plumes of smoke have blackened the sky over the Los Alamos forcing the evacuation of the entire city of about 12,000.

The communities of Cochiti Mesa, and Las Conchas have been evacuated.

On June 27, the fire breached the grounds of Los Alamos National Laboratory and a one-acre spot fire reportedly burned on the lab complex before firefighters extinguished it.

Las Conchas Fire Map

Las Conchas Fire map June 28, 2011. Click image to enlarge.

What People Have Said:

“I seriously believe it could go to 100,000 acres … We have fire all around the lab. It’s a road away.” Doug Tucker, Los Alamos fire chief said.

“We’re doing our best to keep it off the lab,” He added.

“We are throwing absolutely everything at this that we got,” Sen. Tom Udall of N.M. said.

Fire Summary:

• Name: Las Conchas Fire
  
• Date Started: 1 p.m., 6/26/2011
• Location: Approximately 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos off NM 4 at mile marker 35
• Fuels: Mixed Conifer, Ponderosa Pine. Fuel moisture is extremely low.
• Cause: Unknown – under investigation [The fire was reportedly ignited by a fallen power line]
• Size: 60,741 acres based on infrared data [as of latest available data posted on the Internet on June 28, 2011, 11:30 am local time]
• Percent Contained: 0%

Fire Update: [from InciWeb]

East – Crews are working to protect structures near Bandelier, as well as working to contain the fire along the Frijole Canyon.

West – Crews are building direct lines to prevent fire movement to the west.

Northeast – Crews are working to contain the fire using burnout methods to prevent the fire from spreading north of Pajarito Road and east of Highway 501.

South – North of Cochiti fire progression is being slowed by lighter fuel types. Firefighters are evaluating methods to stop the fire from spreading south.

Current Evacuations:

City of Los Alamos – The acting Los Alamos County Administrator issued an evacuation order for the city of Los Alamos. The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque is offering shelter services for evacuating residents of Los Alamos. Los Alamos evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk. White Rock is currently under a voluntary evacuation.The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque offers shelter services for evacuating residents of the Los Alamos townsite. Cities of Gold also accepts pets. Many residents remain in White Rock following voluntary evacuations which began Sunday. Los Alamos townsite evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk. The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque offers shelter services for evacuating residents of the Los Alamos townsite. Cities of Gold also accepts pets. Many residents remain in White Rock following voluntary evacuations which began Sunday. Los Alamos townsite evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk. The Cities of Gold hotel in Pojoaque offers shelter services for evacuating residents of the Los Alamos townsite. Cities of Gold also accepts pets. Many residents remain in White Rock following voluntary evacuations which began Sunday. Los Alamos townsite evacuees are advised against sheltering in White Rock, although White Rock is not at risk.

Pre-Evacuation Alert

If you live near the fire or near the Forest, you should always be ready for emergencies including evacuations, the three-step process is easy to remember and implement:

· Ready – Take personal responsibility and prepare before the threat of a wildland fire so your home is ready in case of a fire. Create defensible space by clearing brush away from your home. Use fire-resistant landscaping and harden your home with fire-safe construction measures. Assemble emergency supplies and belongings in a safe spot. Plan escapes routes. Make sure all those residing within the home know the plan of action.

· Set – Act immediately. Pack your vehicle with your emergency items. Remember your six P’s: people, personal computers, pets, pills, papers and pictures. Stay aware of the latest news and information on the fire from local media and your local fire department.

· Go – Leave early! Follow your personal action plan. Doing so will not only support your safety, but will allow firefighters to best maneuver resources to combat the fire.

Closures

NM 4 is closed at Jemez Falls Campground and at NM 501. NM 502 westbound into Los Alamos is now closed to all motorists. Access is controlled and limited to official traffic until further notification.NM 502 westbound into Los Alamos is now closed to all motorists. Access is controlled and limited to official traffic until further notification.NM 502 westbound into Los Alamos is now closed to all motorists. Access is controlled and limited to official traffic until further notification.

Bandelier National Monument: The Bandelier National Monument will be closed indefinitely.

Los Alamos National Labs: The Los Alamos National Laboratory will be closed due to the fire. All laboratory facilities will be closed for all activities, and nonessential employees are directed to remain off site. Employees that are considered nonessential should not report to work unless specifically directed by their line managers. Employees should check local news sources, the LANL Update Hotline (505) 667-6622 and the LANL web page http://www.lanl.gov for updates. All radioactive and hazardous material is appropriately accounted for and protected. LANL staff is coordinating the on-site response and supporting the county and federal fire response.

Safety Message

The wildfire and burnout operations will continue to produce heavy smoke. Residents with respiratory problems in the path of smoke may want to consider relocating temporarily until smoke dissipates. Motorists should exercise caution due to reduced visibility.

Related Sites

• http://www.inciweb.org/
• http://www.nmfireinfo.com/
• http://www.twitter.com/T1SWIMT

Related Links

• Los Alamos Fire Explodes to 50,000 acres
• Fire Near Los Alamos Grows to 6,000 Acres
• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

Soon Willie Soon

Willie Soon, a U.S. climate change skeptic, who also denies mercury health risks, is a Big Oil pawn: Greenpeace

Soon, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, has received funding from:

• NASA
• Massachusetts Institute of Technology
• Big Oil and Big Coal
• American Petroleum Institute
• Koch Industries

“Last year, the foundation of Charles Koch, chairman and CEO of privately held Koch Industries, gave Soon $65,000 to study how variations in the Sun are related to climate change,” a report said.

“Soon also got $131,000 from oil major Exxon Mobil Corp in 2007 and 2008 received grants to study the Sun’s role in climate change and global warming in the Arctic, Greenpeace said.”

FIRE-EARTH is receiving dozens of comments from at least four different sources that are forcefully demanding a debate on the Sun’s role in climate change and global warming.

Needless to say, those comments are invariably deleted.

Who’s Willie Soon [Sourced from wikipedia]

Willie Wei-Hock Soon (born 1966 in Malaysia) is an astrophysicist at the Solar and Stellar Physics Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Soon has testified before Congress on the issue of climate change He is known for his views that most global warming is caused by solar variation.

He is chief science adviser to the Science and Public Policy Institute, a think tank which disputes the belief that global warming is anthropogenic.Soon is also associated with the George C. Marshall Institute, where he co-authored Lessons and Limits of Climate History: Was 20th Century Climate Unusual? with Sallie Baliunas. The pair have also written for the Fraser Institute of Canada regarding Sun-climate connections.

One of their publications was the center of political controversy, and editors resigned from the journal which published the paper.Soon and Baliunas have also been criticised because their research budget was funded in part by the American Petroleum Institute, a trade association. Another paper coauthored by Soon started a heated debate with polar bear experts.

In 2004 Soon was awarded the “Petr Beckmann Award for courage and achievement in the defense of scientific truth” by Doctors for Disaster Preparedness. (!!)

DDP is unconvinced of the role of CFCs in ozone depletion, the role of greenhouse gases in global warming, and in the utility of renewable energy sources. [Sourced from wikipedia]

Related Links

• Soon and Baliunas controversy

Japan’s Fukushima Nuke Plant Still Leaking

Radioactive water leaking from Fukushima NPP

Some 15 tons of radioactive water have leaked from a storage tank at the stricken Fukushima NPP, Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency reported.

The plant operators, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), continue to accumulate large volumes of radioactive contaminated water after being used to cool the melting reactors.

Meantime, TEPCO’s majority institutional shareholders have nixed a motion by a large number of individual shareholders to abandon nuclear energy in the wake of the Fukushima plant’s triple core meltdown.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

• Japan (880)³
• United States (865)
• France (855)
• Taiwan (850)
• Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
• Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
• Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast. (Last UPDATED: June 26, 2011)

Related Links

• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

U.S. corn production may fall on flooding, heat, drought

Severe flooding in the Mississippi and Missouri river basins have damaged 2.5 million acres of U.S. farmland: Report

Flooding in the Midwest and Northern Plains may lead to a fall in corn production in 2011, according to the CEO of Cargill, the world’s largest commodities trader.

“Clearly, we have lost acres with the flooding,” Greg Page, chief executive of Cargill Inc., told journalist during a visit to Kiev, the Ukraine capital. “Certainly our company is fighting the floods on the Missouri River.

“You could certainly be talking about 300m-400m bushels [lost,]”  Page said.

“The price of corn shot to a record high this month amid surging demand from emerging markets and rising consumption of the grain by the ethanol industry. US corn inventories are set to fall to their lowest since the mid-1990s, according to the US Department of Agriculture.” Said a report.

Added to the problem of flooding in key corn-growing states like Ohio and Indiana, is the worsening drought and soaring temperatures in the southern United States.

Related Links

• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

 

Los Alamos Fire Explodes to 50,000 acres

Las Conchas wildfire burning near Los Alamos grows by a whopping 850 percent

The fire briefly entered the grounds of Los Alamos National Laboratory, but was reportedly beaten back by firefighters.

Fire near Los Alamos National Laboratory

The flames have not yet reached buildings on 28,000-acre lab complex, and authorities said there was little threat to plutonium facility on the northeast side of the complex, according to reports.

“The facility is very well protected from any kind of wildland fire threat,” said a lab spokesman.

In May 2000 a wildfire destroyed several buildings within the complex causing at least $1 billion in damage, he said.

Cerro Grande fire consumed nearly 50,000 acres destroying several hundred homes and about 100 buildings within LANL complex 11 years ago.

Las Conchas wildfire. Freeze frame from a video clip.

The fire started about 1:00 pm on Sunday, June 26, 2011 and is currently zero percent contained.

“The fire burned actively all day to the north/northeast. Running, crowning, and spotting up to a half a mile of the head of the fire was observed.” Said a fire report.

Fire Location

Jemez Ranger District, Santa Fe National Forest; approximately 12 miles southwest of Los Alamos off NM 4 at mile marker 35.

Las Conchas Fire map. Click image to enlarge.

Evacuations

The city of Los Alamos is under MANDATORY evacuation as of 1:45 pm (June 26). White Rock remains under VOLUNTARY evacuation. Cochiti Mesa, Las Conchas, Bandelier National Monument, and campgrounds near the fire were evacuated yesterday. There were approximately 100 residents evacuated from Cochiti Mesa and Las Conchas, and no evacuees reported to the evacuation center at La Cueva Fire Station.

Los Alamos National Labs

The Los Alamos National Laboratory will be closed due to the fire. All laboratory facilities will be closed for all activities, and nonessential employees are directed to remain off site. Employees that are considered nonessential should not report to work unless specifically directed by their line managers. Employees should check local news sources, the LANL Update Hotline (505.667.6622) and the LANL web page http://www.lanl.gov fo updates. All radioactive and hazardous material is appropriately accounted for and protected. LANL staff is coordinating the on-site response and supporting the county and federal fire response.

Threats to Structures and powerlines

• Power and phone lines are down in the area.
• All aircraft in the are have been grounded due to the smoke and other hazards.

Pacheco Fire: 2 miles north of Santa Fe Ski Basin

Source: InciWeb

Related Links

• Fire Near Los Alamos Grows to 6,000 Acres
• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• WARNING: Global Disasters to Intensify

Fire Near Los Alamos Grows to 6,000 Acres

Las Conchas wildfire forces closure of Los Alamos National Laboratory; County under voluntary evacuation

The raging blaze had consumed its way to within 1 km  of the lab’s SW boundary, forcing the authorities to activate its Emergency Operations Center and shut down the complex.

Las Conchas wildfire is actively burning near Frijoles Canyon in Jemez Springs with zero percent containment, as of posting.

The blaze is currently about 10 miles away from residential areas of Los Alamos and White Rock counties, where the officials have asked residents to consider a voluntary evacuation.

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is one of two laboratories in the United States where nuclear weapons are designed.

Related Links

• U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier
• State of Emergency Declared in 29 North Carolina Counties
• State of Emergency Declared for 33 Oklahoma Counties
• Disaster Declared in 25 More Kansas Counties

• Massive Pender Fire Killing Many Animals
• U.S. Wildfires News and Blame Games
• WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update
• U-S Drought: Mega Disaster Unfolding

• VEGETATION
• Weather
• Wildfires
• World Now

Mega Disasters:

• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• Megadisasters Loom

• 2010 Disasters
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• 2010 Disaster Calendar
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

U.S. Drought Getting Deadlier

Drought Conditions to Worsen: FIRE-EARTH

Drought Conditions in the Southern U.S. Continue to Fuel Wildfires

Drought conditions are destroying or causing extensive damage to crops in the southern United States, fueling wildfires that have consumed about 8 million acres, so far this year, killing wildlife and farm animals alike, destroying thousands of homes and leaving tens of thousands of people displaced in at least a dozen states.

In the past 3 days States of Emergency have been declared in at least 87 counties spanning three states of Kansas, Oklahoma and North Carolina.

Kansas Drought

Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) designated 25 more Kansas counties as disaster areas due to crop damage caused by the ongoing drought.

Oklahoma Drought

Drought conditions and raging wildfires in Oklahoma prompted the Lt Gov to declare a state of emergency for 33 counties in that state.

North Carolina Drought

On Friday, N.C. Gov. declared a state of emergency in 29 counties due to drought conditions and raging wildfires.

• State of Emergency Declared in 29 North Carolina Counties
• State of Emergency Declared for 33 Oklahoma Counties
• Disaster Declared in 25 More Kansas Counties

U.S. Drought Map for June 21. Compared with the previous week (see below) the latest drought map show worsening drought conditions, in all categories (C0 -C4) throughout the stricken areas.

Note: US Drought Monitor defines drought as “a protracted period of deficient precipitation resulting in extensive damage to crops, resulting in loss of yield.”

U.S. Drought Map for June 14, 2011 included for comparison. (See above).

The Drought Monitor Report

According to the Drought Monitor report, 70 percent of Texas experienced “exceptional drought,” the worst level of drought, over the period June 17 – June 24, 2011.

Also 91 percent of the sate was stricken by either exceptional or “extreme” drought, the second-worst category.

Arizona was experiencing exceptional or extreme drought in 70 percent of its land up by 3 percent from the previous period.

Louisiana saw exceptional drought rising to 65 percent of the state, a near three-fold increase, and Oklahoma 35 percent, up from about 8 percent previously.

Drought Monitor Maps showing classification changes for selected time periods. Source: National Drought Mitigation Center/UNL. Click images to enlarge.

Drought Conditions to Worsen

FIRE-EARTH Climate Models show an exceptional worsening of drought conditions in the southern and western United States through October/November 2011.

External Links

• Texas Wildfires Could Cost $500 Million 
• The cost of wildfires in Arizona soars to more than $100 million
• “Right now, Georgia can’t afford any more wildfires”
• Cost to battle Duckett Fire estimated at $5.2 million

Related Links

• Massive Pender Fire Killing Many Animals
• U.S. Wildfires News and Blame Games
• WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update
• U-S Drought: Mega Disaster Unfolding

• VEGETATION
• Weather
• Wildfires
• World Now

Mega Disasters:

• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• FEWW DISASTER FORECAST 2011
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• Megadisasters Loom

• 2010 Disasters
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• 2010 Disaster Calendar
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Earth’s Human Induced Antiphase Nears Completion

Fort Calhoun NPP Surrounded by Floodwaters, as Berm Collapses

Fort Calhoun NPP containment buildings and electrical transformers surrounded by 70cm of water, as temporary flood berm collapses

The breach in the  inflatable berm protecting the Fort Calhoun nuclear power plant occurred at about 1:30 am (1:25am) local time Sunday, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) said.

An aerial view of Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant taken on June 16, 2011 showing the extent of flooding at the station. Photo: U.S. Army Corps of Engineer

Reactor shutdown cooling and spent-fuel pool cooling were unaffected, the NRC said.

The plant, operated by the Omaha Public Power District, has been off line since April for refueling.

Emergency diesel generators were activated after the breach, but normal electrical power supply was restored by Sunday afternoon, the agency said.

Containment buildings at the Fort Calhoun plant are watertight, and the reactor cooling system and spent-fuel pool cooling ponds were unaffected, NRC added.

The 2.7m (8 foot) high, 600m long inflatable flood berm surrounding the plant collapsed after being punctured by heavy equipment.

Fort Calhoun, which is about 30 km (19 miles) north of Omaha, was shut down for refueling on April 7 and has not since been restarted. It remains under the Unusual Event declared on June 6.

The 480-megawatt plant which is located north of Omaha shut down about 10 weeks ago to refuel, but has remained shut since due to flooding, according to Omaha Public Power District (OPPD).

The Fort Calhoun NPP has a single CE pressurized water reactor generating about 480 megawatts of electricity, the smallest commercial power reactor in North America.

OPPD is “a customer-owned utility,” which provides electricity to about 346,000 customers in all or parts of 13 counties in east and southeast Nebraska.

Flooding along the Missouri River to continue until mid-August

Water release from the reservoirs and dams along the Missouri River is expected to continue until at least mid-August, resulting “in near-record flooding along portions of the Missouri River.”

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

• Japan (880)³
• United States (865)
• France (855)
• Taiwan (850)
• Belgium, China, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
• Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
• Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

(UPDATED: June 26, 2011)

External Links

• Berm Collapses at Nuclear Plant: NRC Claims No Danger
• Japanese parents fume over Fukushima radiation impact

Related Links

• FLOODING AT TWO NEBRASKA NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
• Nebraska Nuke Plant Remains Shut After Missouri River Flooding

Strong Quake Strikes N Coast of Papua, Indonesia

Magnitude 6.4 EQ Strikes 172 km N of Enarotali, Papua, Indonesia

Three major earthquakes have struck the region within 330km radius of the epicenter since 1914, including the largest two in the last 40 years (8.1Mw on 10 Jan 1979, and 8.2Mw on 17 Feb 1996).

10-degree Map Centered at 0°N,135°E

EQ Location Map. Source: USGS-EHP. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH.

Earthquake Details

• Magnitude: 6.4Mw
• Date-Time:
• Sunday, June 26, 2011 at 12:16:41 UTC
• Sunday, June 26, 2011 at 09:16:41 PM at epicenter

• Location: 2.389°S, 136.648°E
• Depth: 36.1 km (22.4 miles)
• Region: NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA

• Distances: 172 km (106 miles) N of Enarotali, Papua, Indonesia
• 331 km (205 miles) ESE of Manokwari, Papua, Indonesia
• 1,286 km (799 miles) NNE of DARWIN, Northern Territory, Australia
• 3,336 km (2072 miles) E of JAKARTA, Java, Indonesia
• Location Uncertainty:
• horizontal +/- 14.6 km (9.1 miles);
• depth +/- 12.2 km (7.6 miles)

• Source:USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: usc0004gyw

Historic Seismicity [Mag ≥ 7.0 since 1900]

Source: USGS-EHP

Related Links

• VolcanoWatch 26 June 2011
• Messages From Earth’s Powerhouse
• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

VolcanoWatch 26 June 2011

VoW: The Restive Kīlauea

Kīlauea: Probably the World’s Most Active Volcano

Kīlauea is the youngest volcano on the Big Island of Hawai`i.

The active lava lake in Pu`u `Ō `ō and its levee. View looking east into Pu`u `Ō `ō, its crater partly filled by lava flows accumulating on the crater floor. The active lava lake in the crater is 205 m (673 ft) long and varies in width from 80–115 m (262–377 ft). The West Gap pit is in the central foreground, and the Puka Nui and MLK pits are to the right (the MLK pit is in back). The crater has filled in vertically about 100 m (328 ft) since the crater collapsed on March 5, 2011, at the start of the uprift Kamoamoa eruption. It still has about 12 m (39 ft) to go to reach the level of the crater floor prior to the collapse. Source of image and caption: HVO. Click images to enlarge.

Lighter-colored patches of lava on the crater floor are recent overflows. Source: HVO.

Along with overflows, low-level spattering from points wandering around the perimeter of the lava lake continually builds up the levee that impounds the lake. Source: HVO.

The lava lake’s levee stands up to 8 m (26 ft) above the surrounding crater floor. This steep-sided levee impounds the lava and forms what is called a “perched” lava lake. Pieces of the rim occasionally collapse into the lake, leading to sudden and fast-moving overflows of lava onto the crater floor. Source: HVO.

Map of Kīlauea. Source: HVO

• Location: 19.425ºN 155.292ºW
• Elev.: 1,277 m a.s.l.
• Area: 1,430 km² (13.7% of Hawai`i)
• Volume: 25,000-35,000 km³

Click HERE for more images and information …

Weekly Volcanic Activity Report

(based on SI /USGS report for 15 June – 21 June 2011)

New activity/unrest:

• Etna, Sicily [Group A]
• Nabro, Eritrea — [Group C]
• Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile —  [Group D]
• Turrialba, Costa Rica [Group F]

FEWW Map of Volcanoes

Map of Volcanoes. Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.

Ongoing Activity

• Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
• Egon, Flores Island (Indonesia)
• Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia)
• Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
• Paluweh, Lesser Sunda Islands (Indonesia)
• Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)

• Activity
• Learn
• Images
• Hazards
• Publications
• Observatories

Current Alerts for U.S. Volcanoes

• Kilauea Watch Orange 2011-06-25 07:53:30
• Pagan Advisory Yellow 2011-06-24 10:23:48
• Long Valley Volcanic Center Normal Green 2011-06-24 17:58:30
• Mauna Loa Normal Green 2011-06-04 07:16:42
• Hualalai Normal Green 2011-06-04 07:16:42
• Haleakala Normal Green 2011-06-04 07:16:42
• Mauna Kea Normal Green 2011-06-04 07:16:42
• Yellowstone Normal Green 2011-06-01 14:15:51
• Lo`ihi Unassigned 2011-06-04 07:16:42

US Volcanoes: Webcams

Related Links

• Volcanic Explosions Could Split More Than Africa
• Arabia Shakes
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [28 Oct 2009]
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [26 Oct 2009]

• Messages From Earth’s Powerhouse
• Weekly Volcano Watch: 19 March 2009
• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun

• FEWW Volcano Links

• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

State of Emergency Declared in 29 North Carolina Counties

N.C. Gov. declares a state of emergency in 29 counties due to drought conditions, wildfires

Several major fires are raging in Pender, Dare, Brunswick, New Hanover, Columbus, Onslow and Bladen counties.

The fires, covering about 80,000 acres, were started by lightning and have been burning for more than a week.

North Carolina Map of below normal 7-day average streamflow. Source: USGS. Click images to enlarge

State of Emergency Declaration

Gov. Beverly Perdue signed the declaration “due to the extreme fire hazard created by dry conditions and the current wildfires/forest fires in several of these counties.”

Perdue said in a statement:

“I want to assure residents of North Carolina that the state Division of Forest Resources and its partnering agencies are working hard to contain the fires in Eastern North Carolina. They will continue to focus on the top priorities of protecting lives and property nearest the fires.”

Details of property damage and evacuation orders were not known as of posting. However, many communities across the region have been alerted for possible evacuation.

Up to 15 counties are currently under an air quality alert due to particulate matter (PM-2.5) traveling in the wind.

Code Purple Alert

The N.C. Department of Environmental and Natural Resources has issued a Code Purple alert (“very unhealthy”)  for coastal communities due to the smoke from the blazes this weekend.

“Some of the highest particle pollution levels that [the state Division of Air Quality] has ever measured were in smoke plumes from wildfires … Fine particles can penetrate deeply into the lungs and be absorbed into the bloodstream, causing or aggravating heart and lung diseases.” The agency said in a statement.

NOTE: EPA seems to have two Code Purple Alerts!!

The First Code Purple refers to “very unhealthy” air quality, or AQI of 201 to 300.

The Second Code Purple seems to refer to “hazardous” air quality, or AQI of 301 to 500.

AQI color chart – air pollution hazard by EPA. Click to enlarge.

AQI Ratings

• An AQI of 100 for ozone corresponds to an ozone level of 0.075 parts per million (averaged over 8 hours) [EPA data.]
• An AQI of 100 for carbon monoxide corresponds to a level of 9 parts per million (averaged over 8 hours) [EPA data.]
• An AQI of 100 for sulfur dioxide corresponds to a level of 0.14 parts per million (averaged over 24 hours) [EPA data.]
• An AQI of 300 for PM-2.5 corresponds to a level of 250 micrograms of the particulate per cubic meter (averaged over 24 hours) [FIRE-EARTH calc.]

Related Links

• State of Emergency Declared for 33 Oklahoma Counties
• Disaster Declared in 25 More Kansas Counties

• Massive Pender Fire Killing Many Animals
• U.S. Wildfires News and Blame Games
• WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update

State of Emergency Declared for 33 Oklahoma Counties

Drought conditions and raging wildfires prompt Oklahoma Lt Gov to declare a state of emergency for 33 counties

At least 10 blazes have been reported in Oklahoma, forcing thousands of residents to abandon their homes in western and southern Oklahoma.

“These counties have struggled to see relief from our current drought and with Oklahoma’s high winds, conditions have unfortunately been ideal for devastating wildfires,” Lt. Gov. Lamb said.

A large fire near Lawton has reportedly destroyed up to 20 homes (an unknown number of homes have been damaged), and consumed about 6,000 acres.

Oklahoma Map of below normal 7-day average streamflow. Source: USGS. Click images to enlarge

Fires burning in A Comanche County. At least one injury reported. Frame grab from a news video clip. Watch video here.

The State of Emergency

The State of Emergency declaration  covers  Alfalfa, Beaver, Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cimarron, Comanche, Cotton, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Garfield, Garvin, Grady, Grant, Greer, Harmon, Harper, Jackson, Jefferson, Kingfisher, Kiowa, Love, Major, Roger Mills, Stephens, Texas, Tillman, Washita, Woods and Woodward counties.

Additional counties may be added, if conditions deteriorate.

Current HMS Fire and Smoke Analysis

Analyzed Fires and Smoke from Satellite on NESDIS ArcIMS server. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH. Click images to enlarge.

Related Links

• Massive Pender Fire Killing Many Animals
• U.S. Wildfires News and Blame Games
• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update

Disaster Declared in 25 More Kansas Counties

USDA Declares 25 Additional Kansas Counties as Disaster Areas

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has designated 25 more Kansas counties as disaster areas due to crop damage caused by the ongoing drought.

The latest designation, requested by Gov. Sam Brownback, covers the Wichita metropolitan area and south-central Kansas, and comes shortly after the agency had listed 21 other counties as disaster areas.

The latest designation cover Barber, Barton, Butler, Clark, Comanche, Cowley, Edwards, Ellis, Ford, Graham, Gray, Harper, Harvey, Hodgeman, Kingman, Lincoln, Norton, Phillips, Reno, Rice, Russell, Sedgwick, Stafford, Sumner and Trego counties.

Kansas Map of below normal 7-day average streamflow. Source: USGS.
Click images to enlarge

US Map of below normal 7-day average streamflow. Source: USGS. Click images to enlarge.

 

Related Links

• Massive Pender Fire Killing Many Animals
• U.S. Wildfires News and Blame Games
• WARNING: Global Disasters – June 21, 2011

Souris River Tops 1881 Historic Flood Level

Minot Drowning as Souris River sinks 130-year flood record, more rain forecast for Missouri Basin

The river is still climbing and it forecast to crest at 1,564 feet above sea level by late Saturday.

Entire streets are under up to 8 feet of water, and the floodwaters continue to rise.

More then 12,000 of the city’s 41,000 residents are under evacuation orders.

“It’s dangerous and we need you to stay away and do as little travel as possible within the community,” Minot Mayor said.

At least 2,500 homes had been flooded by Friday afternoon, and the number could grow to 5,000 homes by late Friday, the mayor added.

“Even though we are still frantically fighting the flood and trying to keep the water away still as much as possible, we are very rapidly going to be into a period where we are dealing with the human impacts of this,” North Dakota Governor said, as shelters and temporary housing began running out of space.

About a third of the homes in the small town of Burlington (Pop: 1,075) are expected to be lost.

Hydrograph for Souris River at Minot-Broadway Bridge. Source: NWS/AHPS

Flood Categories and Historical Crests

More hydrographs: Souris and Des Lacs Flood Briefing Page

HPC 5-Day Precipitation Forecast Map.

Canadian reservoirs over capacity

“Heavy rains across the Souris River Basin left Canadian reservoirs over capacity. Water then rushing down from Canada has forced U.S. officials to make record-large releases from the Lake Darling Dam above Minot and other communities,” a report said.

The reservoirs won’t be able to cope with the additional rain forecast for the region and ecord releases would be needed causing widespread floodings in Nebraska, Iowa and Missouri through mid-August.

US Weather Threats Assessment Map

Map of potential hazards related to climate, weather and hydrological events in the U.S.  Source: NWS/CPC. Click image to enlarge.

US Weather Map 24-25 June

Click image to enlarge.

External Links

• Flood Threat Creates ‘Psychological Roller Coaster’ in Minot, N.D.

Related Links

• Minot Flood Warning
• Major floods forcing evacuations from North Dakota to Missouri
• Nebraska Nuke Plant Remains Shut After Missouri River Flooding
• FLOODING AT TWO NEBRASKA NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

2011 Disasters

• 2011 Disaster Calendar – June
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters [Includes Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Massive Pender Fire Killing Many Animals

Devastating Wildfire in Holly Shelter Game Land, NC, Grows to about 19,000

Pender Fire was started by lightning on Sunday afternoon and has since consumed about 19,000 acres with unknown containment.

The fast-moving wildfire is burning Holly Shelter Game Land has killed  many types of animals, according to reports.

Also known as the Juniper Road Fire,  the blaze is reportedly moving  toward NC 53 and NC 50 in the Maple Hill area. The raging blaze  continues to threaten about 2,000 homes in Pender and Onslow counties.

Pender Fire is one of three major wildfires currently burning in North Carolina.

Fire Summary

• Cause: Lightning
• Date of Origin Sunday June 19th, 2011 approx. 03:33 PM
• Location: Holly Shelter Game Land, Juniper Road and County Line Road, 8 miles North of Topsail
• Total Personnel: 101
• Size: ~ 19,000 acres (Local reports)
• Fire Behavior: Sustained burning along uncontained fireline, short range spotting, torching along the flanks and intense smoldering of organic soils within the fire interior.
• Growth Potential: High
• Terrain Difficulty: High
• Smoke Announcement: NO SUPER-FOG IS EXPECTED BUT VERY DENSE SMOKE CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE PENDER COUNTY FIRE (JUNIPER ROAD) AND ON ROANOKE ISLAND AND OUTER BANKS AS THE SMOKES FROM THE FIRES CONVERGE.

“There’s no doubt the wildfire is sending out massive amounts of smoke and that’s impacting a lot of areas near and far from the fire location.” Said a report.

“It’s a real thick smoke. You can see the fire from everywhere. It’s through North Carolina, so a lot of the tourists have been complaining,” said a Surf City resident.

Analyzed Fires and Smoke from Satellite on NESDIS ArcIMS server. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH. Click images to enlarge.

An image from Pains Bay Fire, Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Dare County Range(Dept. of Defense, ASAF) in Dare County, NC.

The Pains Bay Fire was reported on the afternoon of Thursday, May 5, 2011 and was caused by lightning. It is burning on Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge and the Dare County Range (Dept. of Defense, ASAF) in Dare County, NC. Fuels are chaparral pocosin growing on organic peat soil up to 8 feet deep. Early, fast spread of the fire was caused by low relative humidity and high winds. For several days, the perimeter of the fire has been stationary. Ground fire burning in deep peat continues to hamper containment efforts. Source: Inciweb. Click image to enlarge.

A possible threat still exists to the Stumpy Point community. Conditions are being monitored and the need for evacuation is being assessed on a continuous basis. US 264, between Stumpy Point and Engelhard, has been closed intermittently since the fire began due to smoke and firefighter activity. Heavy smoke from smoldering peat continues to effect surrounding communities and areas as far as Raleigh, NC and Norfolk, VA.

Pains Bay Fire Announcement

Convergent Smoke Plumes Drift& heavily impact Northeastern NC.

Image of the Day

States Currently Reporting Large Fires

• Alaska (1 fire, ~ 23,000 acres)
• Arkansas (1)
• Arizona (5 fires >800,000 acres)
• Colorado (1)
• Florida (11 fires, ~50,000)
• Georgia (3 fires, ~ 320,000 acres)
• Mississippi (1)
• New Mexico (2 fires, ~35,000 acres)
• North Carolina (3, ~ 70,000 acres)
• Oklahoma (3 fires )
• Texas (17 fires, ~ 200,000 acres)

• Acres currently burning in active fires: ~1,500,000
• Largest fire burning in the country: Wallow Fire (Apache-Sitgreaves National Forest, Arizona); 529,825 acres burned [official stats] at 61 percent contained.

Preparedness Levels

• National Preparedness Level 3
• Southern Area Preparedness Level: 5
• Texas Fire Service Preparedness Level: 5

Year-to-date statistics

• 2011 (1/1/11 – 6/23/11) Fires: 34,673 Acres: 4,585,583 [Official stats]
• Total acres burned: 8+ million acres [FIRE-EARTH estimate]
• Worst hit State: Texas with 10,825 fires burning 3,189,457  acres [TFS stats,] and about 1,800 building destroyed [FIRE-EARTH estimate]

Red Flag Warnings

Red Flag Warnings are currently issued in parts of six states: Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. (Click map below to enter NWS interactive portal for details of Red Flag Warnings.)

U.S. Hazards Map. Click map to enter NWS interactive portal.

The “Mexican” Drought

According to the Drought Monitor report 70 percent of Texas experienced “exceptional drought,” the worst level of drought, over the last week.

Also 91 percent of the sate is stricken by either exceptional or “extreme” drought, the second-worst category.

Arizona is experiencing exceptional or extreme drought in 70 percent of its land up by 3 percent from the previous period.

Louisiana saw exceptional drought rising to 65 percent of the state, a near three-fold increase, and Oklahoma 35 percent, up from about 8 percent previously.

Related Links

• U.S. Wildfires News and Blame Games
• North America Fire and Smoke Hazards – June 20
• Wildfires Raging in Arizona, Alaska, NC, Georgia, Texas …
• U.S. Wildfires – June 21 Update

Powerful Quake Hits Fox Islands, Alaska

UPDATE at 04:25UTC: The West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center has now lifted the Tsunami Warning that was issued earlier.

Magnitude 7.4 Quake Strikes 64 km (39 miles) SW of Amukta Island, Alaska

The quake has since been downgraded to magnitude 7.2Mw, but a Tsunami Warning issued by the West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center is still in place, as of posting:

The Tsunami Warning continues in effect for the coastal areas of Alaska from Unimak Pass, Alaska (80 miles NE of Dutch Harbor) to Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles W of Adak).

This message is for Information Only for coastal areas of California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska from the California-Mexico border to Unimak Pass, Alaska (80 miles NE of Dutch Harbor).

This message is for Information Only for coastal areas of Alaska from Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles W of Adak) to Attu, Alaska.

This message is for Information Only for coastal areas of Alaska from Amchitka Pass, Alaska (125 miles W of Adak) to Attu, Alaska.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center issued the following bulletin:

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

10-degree Map Centered at 50°N,170°W

Source: USGS-EHP

Earthquake Details

• Magnitude: 7.2
• Date-Time:
• Friday, June 24, 2011 at 03:09:40 UTC
• Thursday, June 23, 2011 at 06:09:40 PM at epicenter

• Location: 52.008°N, 171.859°W
• Depth: 62.6 km (38.9 miles)
• Region: FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
• Distances:
• 64 km (39 miles) SW of Amukta Island, Alaska
• 103 km (64 miles) SW of Yunaska Island, Alaska
• 1,677 km (1,042 miles) WSW of Anchorage, Alaska
• 2,429 km (1,509 miles) W of WHITEHORSE, Yukon Territory, Canada

• Location Uncertainty:
• horizontal +/- 13.8 km (8.6 miles)
• depth +/- 5.3 km (3.3 miles)

• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Alaska EQ Info Center

Click images to enlarge. For interactive images go to source: Alaska EQ Info Center

In Global Tectonics Warning – April 27 posted on April 27, 2011, FIRE-EARTH said:

FIRE-EARTH Model shows NEAR CRITICAL buildup of tectonic stress energy near the coast of Alaska.

UPDATE

FIRE-EARTH Models show the energy buildup continuing …

Related Links

• Global Tectonics Warning – April 27
• Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 3
• Alaska: Magnitude 6.6 Quake Strikes Fox Islands

• EQJP
• A New Era of Intense Volcanic Unrest May Have Begun
• World’s Dormant Volcanoes Firing
• VolcanoWatch Weekly [16 September 2009]

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Minot Flood Warning

Souris River Flooding

Water is moving twice as fast as past floods

At least 10,000 residents have already evacuated from at-risk parts of Minot, North Dakota, according to  reports.

Hydrograph for Souris River at Minot-Broadway Bridge. Source: NWS/AHPS

Flood Categories and Historical Crests

Water is moving about twice as fast through the system as past flood  event. For example, in 1969 it took about 5 days for the water to route from Estevan to Sherwood but this year it is taking about 2.5 days.  Aerial reconnaissance indicates that from Estevan to Minot the valley is full of water from bluff to bluff enabling the flood wave to move more quickly as it bypasses the normal channel and the normal channel and off channel obstacles.  This flood is over twice as large in terms of peak flow than the previous records all along the Souris River, and this creates uncertainty with eventual peak values. (Source: NWS)

• Flood Warning Statements
• Graph terminology

Missouri basin reservoirs from eastern Montana t0 the Dakotas are approaching their capacity. “Reservoir water release rates are expected to stay at high release levels (150,000 cfs) into August. These extremely high flows, combined with normal rainfall, will result in near-record flooding along portions of the Missouri River.” NWS said.

Map of the Missouri River. The Missouri River begins in southern Montana in the Rocky Mountains, first flowing north then generally southeast across the heart of the United States, ending at the Mississippi River, just to the north of St. Louis, Missouri. Some 4,023 km (2,500 miles) long, it is the longest river in the United States. Source: NWS CRH

Related Links

• Major floods forcing evacuations from North Dakota to Missouri
• Nebraska Nuke Plant Remains Shut After Missouri River Flooding
• FLOODING AT TWO NEBRASKA NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

Tornado hits Churchill Downs, Kentucky

Images of the Day

Supercell storm produces  tornado at Churchill Downs, Kentucky

Radar data from the NWS Doppler Radar during the evening of June 22, 2011. The top two images are “reflectivity” showing the supercell storm which produced a tornado at Churchill Downs race track. The tornado is located in the “hook” area on the southwest side of the supercell. The bottom two images are “storm-relative velocity” images. Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge.

This animation shows Doppler radar storm-relative velocity data. A different supercell storm produced a cyclonic  circulation highlighted in the black circle (red-green couplet). This circulation was responsible for producing an EF-1 tornado in the Jeffersonville, KY area. Source: NWS. Click image to enlarge and animate.

 

Related Links

• 43 Tornadoes Reported in 5 States
• Tornado, Flood and Red Flag Warnings
• Mega Tornadoes to Bombard U-S Tornado Alley

2011 Disasters

• 2011 Disaster Calendar – June
• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters [Includes Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

FLOODING AT TWO NEBRASKA NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

Floodwaters rising at Cooper and Fort Calhoun nuclear power plants, Nebraska

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) said in a statement that is was closely watching conditions along the Missouri River where floodwaters are rising at two Nebraska nuclear power plants, the Cooper Nuclear Station and the Fort Calhoun NPP.

The lowest of four levels of emergency notification remain in effects at both plants, NRC said.

“We are closely following events at both plants,” NRC Region IV Administrator Elmo Collins said. “Both plants have activated their flood response plans and taken appropriate steps to protect vital structures, systems and components from rising floodwaters and maintain their plants in a safe condition.”

Cooper NPP, located in Brownville, Nebraska, is currently about 70 cm (two and a half feet) above current river levels, and is operating at full power. However, it remains under the ‘Unusual Event’ declared on June 19, NRC said.

Fort Calhoun, which is about 30 km (19 miles) north of Omaha, was shut down for refueling on April 7 and has not since been restarted. It remains under the Unusual Event declared on June 6.

“The NRC has augmented its inspection staff at Fort Calhoun where there is now two feet of water in many areas onsite,” the report said.

Cooper Nuclear Power Plant on the edge of the Missouri River surrounded by floodwaters on June 15, 2011. Photo: Corps of Engineers

An aerial view of Fort Calhoun Nuclear Power Plant taken on June 16, 2011 showing the extent of flooding at the station. Photo: U.S. Army Corps of Engineer

Flooding along the Missouri River to continue until mid-August

Water release from the reservoirs and dams along the Missouri River is expected to continue until at least mid-August, resulting “in near-record flooding along portions of the Missouri River.”

Earlier the NWS released the following statement:

“The upper Missouri River Basin (Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota and Nebraska) has received 100 to 800 percent of normal precipitation during the past several weeks. Snow pack runoff entering the upper portion of the river system is more than twice the normal amount.

“These conditions have resulted in Missouri basin reservoirs across eastern Montana and the Dakotas nearing their maximum levels. Reservoir water release rates are expected to stay at high release levels (150,000 cfs) into August. These extremely high flows, combined with normal rainfall, will result in near-record flooding along portions of the Missouri River.”

The graphic above shows where recent river gauge forecasts are available, and are colored according to their values.  They are the most recent guidance forecasts we have issued as of the date/time stamp on the bottom of the graphic.  Orange, magenta, and red dots represent river points that are forecast to be in flood.  Yellow dots represent those which are under flood stage, but are high enough to merit some internal action (e.g., perhaps a crest forecast is issued, or a forecast is issued more frequently).  Green dots represent stages that are below the action stage and are not high enough to merit much hydrologic concern.  Gray dots mean that the status couldn’t be determined (perhaps because no forecasts for these points have been recently issued). Source: NWS Missouri Basin/ pleasant Hill

• UPPER MISSOURI RIVER – Range of peak flows …
• LOWER MISSOURI RIVER – Range of peak flows …
• Missouri Basin River Forecast Center http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mbrfc/

France

Meantime, France’s EDF has denied reports/rumors of radioactive leaks at at least two French nuclear plants since early April this year.

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

• Japan (880)³
• United States (865)
• Taiwan (850)
• Belgium, China, France, Finland, India,  South Korea, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Russia, Slovakia, Czech Republic, Armenia, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania,  Hungary, Bulgaria, Spain,  Pakistan, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico,  South Africa, Canada (810)
• Germany, Sweden, Netherlands (800)
• Switzerland  (750)

Notes:

1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

Related News headlines

• NRC: “Two Feet of Water” at Fort Calhoun But Nuke PLant Still “Safe”
• “About 12,000 people are told to leave their homes, most of them in the city of Minot, as the Souris River swells to record levels. It is expected to rise 8 feet more before cresting.”
• 600 Iowans told to evacuate
• Evacuations widespread in northwest Missouri
• Residents of Craig in northwest Missouri are under orders to evacuate

Related Links

• Japan’s Nuclear Industry: Mega Disaster in the Making
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts
• Major floods forcing evacuations from North Dakota to Missouri
• Nebraska Nuke Plant Remains Shut After Missouri River Flooding

Major floods forcing evacuations from North Dakota to Missouri

Missouri, Souris River floods forcing community evacuations from North Dakota to Missouri

Communities from North Dakota to Missouri have begun mandatory evacuations, as the severity of Missouri and Souris River flooding increases.

Precipitation Map from Last 60 Days (April 22 – June 21). The upper Missouri River Basin (Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota and Nebraska) has received 100 to 800 percent of normal precipitation during the past several weeks. Snow pack runoff entering the upper portion of the river system is more than twice the normal amount. Click image to enter NWS CRH page.

“Sirens signaling the need for immediate evacuation began sounding around 10 a.m. today in Minot, N.D., as some levees began to fail in the city of 40,888. City officials had alerted residents in at-risk areas to be ready for immediate evacuation today. Local radio and television broadcasters relayed the message that those in evacuation zones needed to leave those areas at once.” National Weather Service (NWS) said.

“In the southern part of the flooded Missouri River channel, the 283 residents of Craig, Mo., have also been ordered to evacuate to higher ground. Some levees protecting the town have already failed, and the heaviest Missouri River flows haven’t reached that area yet.”

Missouri basin reservoirs from eastern Montana t0 the Dakotas are approaching their capacity. “Reservoir water release rates are expected to stay at high release levels (150,000 cfs) into August. These extremely high flows, combined with normal rainfall, will result in near-record flooding along portions of the Missouri River.”

Map of the Missouri River. The Missouri River begins in southern Montana in the Rocky Mountains, first flowing north then generally southeast across the heart of the United States, ending at the Mississippi River, just to the north of St. Louis, Missouri. Some 4,023 km (2,500 miles) long, it is the longest river in the United States. Source: NWS CRH

Currently 17 stream gauge sites in the United States are  at Major Flooding levels, with 38 gauges at Moderate Flood, 107 gauges at Minor Flood and 154 gauges at Near Flood.

US Flood Map 1

US Flood Map 2

Legend

Related Links

• Missouri Basin River Forecast Center (River forecasts within 48 hours)