Fire Earth

Earth is fighting to stay alive. Mass dieoffs, triggered by anthropogenic assault and fallout of planetary defense systems offsetting the impact, could begin anytime!

Archive for the ‘gulf of mexico’ Category

Killing the Fabric of Life on Earth

Posted by feww on July 30, 2010

How Much More Oil, Coal?

Where exactly you said you were going to?

BP Oil Disaster in the Gulf of Mexico – Satellite Image


Natural-color image captured on July 28, 2010 by MODIS on NASA’s Aqua
satellite. Source: NASA E/O.  Click image to enlarge. Download large image (818 KB, JPEG).


Posted in BP oil disaster, BP oil spill, Deepwater Horizon, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Gulf Oil Disaster Like Apollo 13 Explosion: BP CEO

Posted by feww on May 15, 2010

BP CEO Speaks Again!

‘Significant Changes’ Needed in Deepwater Drilling

“I don’t believe it should [result in a ban], in the same way as Apollo 13 did not stop the space program nor have serious airline accidents from time to time stopped people flying.” Mr Hayward told BBC.

Oil debris are seen attached to oyster shells on Raccoon Island shoreline, Louisiana, May 12, 2010.  U.S. Navy photo

What Mr Howard didn’t say was that the explosion aboard Apollo 13 was a minor explosion, which was in no way comparable to the BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

He now concedes  that deep water drilling is a very risky business, however.

“I think undoubtedly that this will be a transforming event for exploration and production activities in the deep water of the world, in particular the deep water of the United States,” he said.

Cozy Relationship

Meanwhile President Barrack Obama has declared that  the epoch of  “cozy relationship” between oil firms and US regulators is over.

“For too long, for a decade or more, there’s been a cozy relationship between the oil companies and the federal agency that permits them to drill,” Obama said.

“That cannot and will not happen anymore,” Obama added.

Well now. Let’s see. If what he says is true, that just leaves only a few more dozens of “cozy relationships” with the regulators/lawmakers: The banking and finance industry, auto  industry, pharmaceuticals, nuke power, military-industrial, airlines …

Environmental group suing U.S. Govt over oil permits

The Center for Biological Diversity, an environmental group, has filed a notice of intent to sue Ken Salazar the U.S. Interior Secretary, and the Interior Department’s Minerals Management Service (MMS) for failing to get the necessary environmental permits, required by two environmental laws, the Marine Mammal Protection Act, and the Endangered Species Act, before approving offshore oil operations.

Since Salazar took office in 2009, his office has approved at least 3 lease sales, more than a total of 400 seismic surveys and drilling operations without applying for the necessary environmental permits designed to protect endangered marine species, the group says.

“The Department of the Interior and the Minerals Management Service are creating a lawless zone in the Gulf of Mexico when it comes to these environmental laws. The oil companies really get to call the shots.” Miyoko Sakashita, the center’s oceans director told reporters.

“The Marine Mammal Protection Act and Endangered Species Act prohibit private entities, such as oil companies, as well as federal agencies, such as the Minerals Management Service — the branch of the Interior Department responsible for managing offshore oil activities — from killing, harming, or harassing marine mammals, unless they have received authorizations and take measures to minimize the impacts of their activities. The Endangered Species Act protects species such as the sperm whale, which is listed as endangered, while the Marine Mammal Protection Act applies to all marine mammals, such as the bottlenose dolphin and the Florida manatee.” The group said in their notice.

Lawsuit to Challenge Salazar’s Wholesale Disregard of Marine Mammal Protection Laws in Gulf of Mexico: 400-plus Oil Projects Illegally Approved by Salazar Without Permits to Harm Endangered Whales

Ongoing Risk of Deepwater Drilling

The fact remains however that there are at least 77 drilling rigs and commercially producing oil platforms operating in deep waters of Gulf of Mexico, and many more are slated to go on line.

Also, Fire-Earth Moderators forecast the probability of another major oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico between now and December 2011 at greater than 90 percent. SEE: https://feww.wordpress.com/2010/05/01/fire-earth-forecasts-10-major-oil-spills-to-end-2011/

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Posted in deepwater drilling, Deepwater Horizon, environment, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Gulf of Mexico: A Waiting Disaster

Posted by feww on May 13, 2010

SAVE HUMANITY!
CHANGE YOUR LIFESTYLES!

Gulf of Mexico is a powder keg waiting to explode anytime, engulfing the region in a ball of fire

Gulf of Mexico is a natural asset, a life guarantee, but it’s being stripped of its natural services, turned into an industrial cash cow and bled to oblivion by unscrupulous money men.

It may be painful to live without too much fossil fuels, and the fattest “energy dinosaurs” would suffer most,  but the price you pay for continuing on a high-energy path is much dearer—you shall all perish.

Which of the Gulf of Mexico’s Deepwater Wells Would Leak Next?


Located 150 miles (241 kilometers) southeast of New Orleans in Mississippi Canyon Block 778 in a water depth of approximately 6,050 feet (1,844 meters), the Thunder Horse platform is the world’s largest semisubmersible facility. British Petroleum received approval from the Minerals Management Service to debottleneck the topside production facilities to 275,000 barrels of oil and 220 million standard cubic feet of natural gas per day. As of March 20, 2009, production was approximately 260,000 barrels of oil and 210.5 million standard cubic feet of natural gas per day from seven wells. The Thunder Horse Field is the largest producer in the Gulf of Mexico. (Image courtesy of BP America Inc.). Source: DOI, MMS Report. Mississippi Canyon Block 778 could turn out to be another “Challenger” of deepwater oil production

Why are the Moderators so concerned about additional oil leaks in GOM , after all it’s not as if offshore drilling is a new trick, right?

Here are some stats from the Interior Department’s Minerals Management Service (MMS), the body [that should be] responsible for offshore drilling regulations and safety enforcement [sic.] Every time the number of deepwater operations is doubled, the probability of “accidents” increases by about 4 folds.

The MMS says since the early 1990’s, leasing, drilling, and production (pumping oil from the well) has moved increasingly into deeper waters.

  • As of 2008/09 approximately 7,310 active leases operated in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM)
  • About 4,240 (58%) were in deep water.  (The actual numbers vary day to day, figure are approx.)
  • In contrast, there were only 5,600 active GOM leases in 1992, and only about 27% or 1,510 of those leases were in deep water.
  • In 1992 only 3 rigs drilled in deep water, compared to 31 rigs in 2008, and 77 operated in 2010, of which at least 47 are in commercial production.
  • Deepwater oil production rose by 786 percent and gas production increased about 1,067 percent from 1992 to 2007.
  • Seven deepwater fields became operational in 2008 including Thunder Horse, the largest daily producer in the GOM.


Gulf of Mexico – Oil and Gas Production. Between 1987 and 2007 pumping oil out of the deepwater fields increased by about 20 folds. Source: MMS. Enhanced by Fire-Earth. Click image to enlarge.

A Chilling Forecast

Based on the frequency of recent oil spills, the rate of rise in drilling deepwater wells and a number of other related factors, Fire-Earth Moderators forecast at least 10 more oil spills could occur between now and December 2011.

Five of the forecast leaks/spills could occur  in and around the U.S., with at least one of them in GOM. One or more of the spills could turn out to be cataclysmic. SEE: https://feww.wordpress.com/2010/05/01/fire-earth-forecasts-10-major-oil-spills-to-end-2011/

Recurring Nightmares

Oil spills share two common features with nightmares:

  1. They keep on recurring.
  2. They become more frightening each time they recur.

“Energy Security,” Doesn’t Mean Life Security


The pink in the picture are pipelines! Does the underwater jungle of pipelines create perception of energy security or life security? Image source: MMS. Click image to enlarge.

Drill Baby, Drill in Deepwater Gulf

The federal inspectors said they completed examining 30 deepwater drilling rigs that are prospecting for oil in the Gulf of Mexico, but reported no safety problems.

“Throughout our inspections, no deepwater facilities have been shut-in due to safety concerns,” said John Romero, spokesman for Minerals Management Service (MMS), the Department of Interior branch responsible [sic] for offshore drilling safety .

Romero said that his department at MMS  will soon begin inspecting 47 deepwater production platforms that are already pumping crude oil commercially.

“These inspections may take up to a month to complete,” he said.

Future is Black, Future is Sticky, Future …

What are the chances that the rigs and oil platforms in GOM continue operating without “safety problems,” for another week, month, or a year?

What happens if an earthquake strikes the region, or an underwater landslide occurs near one or more of the wells?

Do BP, MSS, NOAA or anybody else have any disaster-prevention plans to deal with earthquakes, landslide and other “unexpected” natural hazards?

NO! Of course, not.

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http://edro.wordpress.com/collapsing-cities/
http://edro.wordpress.com/energy-dinosaurs/

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Posted in deepwater drilling, Deepwater Horizon, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Gulf of Mexico Oil Leak – Latest Modis Image

Posted by feww on May 12, 2010

Oil Leak Disaster in the Gulf of Mexico


MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite took the above image on Tuesday p.m.  local time, May 11. Image shows significant amounts of oil in the Gulf of Mexico as a result of the ongoing leak from the damaged  Deepwater Horizon oil well. Image and caption: NASA E/O. [edited for brevity.] Click image to enlarge.
Download large image (815 KB, JPEG)

Latest News Headlines:

BP is attempting to maneuver its “small top hat” containment dome over the wellhead leak on Wednesday, May 12.  BP officials have no idea whether it will work.

“The ‘top hat’ was lowered to the seabed floor last night and is presently… in the immediate area of the leak and the plan is to have that positioned over the leak and functioning by the end of the week,” BP spokesperson Bryan Ferguson told AFP.

NOAA’s Magic Reduces the Oil Spill [at least diagrammatically]

While BP’s chances of stopping the leak aren’t that good right now, NOAA has managed to reduce the spill marks electronically. See image below and previous images posted.

Another euphemistic, watered-down 72-Hour Trajectory Map of the Oil Spill in the Gulf? Click image to enlarge (PDF file)

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Gulf Oil Spill Disaster – Expecting Different Results

Posted by feww on May 11, 2010

Doing the Same thing Over and Expecting Different Results?

BP Keen to Be Seen Doing Something, Regardless of End Result

BP executives and their counterparts from Transocean Ltd and Halliburton Co, will appear before Senate panels investigating the disaster. It’s not known whether DOI and MMS personnel as well as certain senators and congressmen who rubber stamped BP drilling  would ever be questioned.

The session, at any rate, is expected to be highly theatrical, staged to appease the people.


A euphemistic, watered-down 72-Hour Trajectory Map of the Oil Spill in the Gulf? Is it our imagination, or NOAA making the maps look less life-threatening? Click image to enlarge.

Small “top hat”

BP says it aims to lower a small “top hat” dome, the size of an oil barrel, over the leak and siphon up the oil from the leak to a tanker 1.5km (~ 1 mile) above the sea floor.  The original massive metal box, the “big top hat” was too big and that’s why it failed to work.

“There will be less seawater in the smaller dome and therefore less likelihood of hydrate formation,” BP CEO, Tony Hayward, told reporters at in Houston.

Fire-Earth says unless the “top hat” can couple [leech] onto the point(s) at which the leaks are occurring , so as to prevent any build up of crystallized gas hydrates in the vicinity, it’s unlikely to work, and could run into all kinds of additional complication.

In other words, for any “solution” to work, it should be able to siphon up more than 95 percent of the oil that is being leaked, or it’s unlikely to succeed. 

Pointing the Finger of blame

A BP executive is blaming Transocean for the blowout because the blowout preventer, designed to prevent the an oil leak, failed to work.

Transocean in turn is blaming Haliburton,  a third company involved. It says the blowout preventer did not cause the leak, but two other failures occurred, the well’s  cover and the cement that was used to seal it.

Halliburton had reportedly finished cementing the well-cover less than a day before the explosion occurred, which also killed 11 people, the said BP executives says in a written testimony to the Senate investigating panel.

What about other deepwater drilling in the Gulf?

Meanwhile federal inspectors completed examining 30 deepwater drilling rigs prospecting for oil in the Gulf of Mexico, but reported no safety problems, Reuters said.

“Throughout our inspections, no deepwater facilities have been shut-in due to safety concerns,” said John Romero, spokesman for Minerals Management Service (MMS), the Department of Interior branch responsible [sic] for offshore drilling safety .

Romero told Reuters that his department at MMS  will soon begin inspecting 47 deepwater production platforms that are already pumping crude oil commercially.

“These inspections may take up to a month to complete,” he said.

Dispersant Sink

There’s now nearly as much dispersant sprayed over the Gulf of Mexico as that awful orange-colored fire retardant chemical over the state of California. The problem is the dispersant used in the Gulf is even deadlier than the fire-retardant.


A U.S. Air Force chemical dispersing C-130 aircraft drops an oil dispersing chemical into the Gulf of Mexico as part of the Deepwater Horizon Response effort, May 5, 2010. U.S. Air Force Photo by Tech. Sgt. Adrian Cadiz.

Recent Documents

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Posted in Deepwater Horizon, environment, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill | Tagged: , , , , | 3 Comments »

Texas Coast Attacked by Oil Spill

Posted by feww on May 10, 2010

Image of the Day:

The Big Oil State Under Attack

The spill is moving west toward the coast of Texas, according to various reports.

Geologist from Hell?

BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward has admitted that the ruptured oil well could continue gushing crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico for weeks, even months, before it could be brought under control.

The Deepwater Horizon wellhead is now gushing oil at an estimated minimum rate of 5,000 bpd. Some experts believe, however, that the leak is bleeding at 25,000bpd [nearly 4,000,000 liters per day] or 5 times the official estimate.


The Deepwater Horizon oil spill in Gulf of Mexico is seen an aerial view of area off the coast of Mobile, Alabama. Handout photo was taken from a U.S. Coast Guard aircraft on May 6, 2010 and released to media on May 9, 2010. Credit: U.S. Coast Guard.


The trajectory shows the actual and forecast oil spill movement for the 3-day period 9-12 May. Click image to enlarge.

Fragile ecosystems on the coast wetlands of Texas could be devastated by the BP oil spill


Texas bays and Gulf waters are home to thousands of fish, shellfish, birds and other animals, all of which depend on the coast’s diverse habitats for food and shelter. Humans, too, share the coast, building homes and ports, harvesting seafood and enjoying the many kinds of recreation the coast has to offer. Credit: University of Texas.

Who Needs Wetlands, Swamps …

What’s the big deal about coastal ecosystems? Do they actually do anything for us?

Here’s a partial list valuable goods and services produced by coastal Texas wetlands; environmental quality functions and socioeconomic values (after Tiner 1984 and Hefner et al., 1994). [Source: National Wetlands Inventory Report.]

Environmental Quality Functions

Water Quality Maintenance

  • Sediment Trapping & Stabilization
  • Chemical & Toxicant Trapping
  • Nutrient Absorption & Cycling

Hydrologic Functions

  • Groundwater Recharge/Discharge
  • Saltwater Intrusion Prevention
  • Flow Stabilization

Primary Production/Energy Transfer
Ecosystem Stabilization
Biological Diversity
Biogeochemical Cycling
Fish & Wildlife Habitat

  • Invertebrates
  • Fish & Shellfish
  • Reptiles & Amphibians
  • Waterfowl, Wading Birds, Shorebirds & Other Birds
  • Furbearers & Other Mammals
  • Endangered & Threatened Species

Socioeconomic Values
Products

  • Finfish & Shellfish
  • Forage & Hay
  • Timber
  • Food Products
  • Fur and Other Wildlife Products
  • Aquaculture/Mariculture

Recreation & Nature Tourism

  • Fishing & Crabbing
  • Hunting & Trapping
  • Nonconsumptive Fish & Wildlife Uses
  • Boating & Swimming
  • Camping & Picnicking
  • Hiking, Trail Walking/Jogging
  • Visual Aesthetics & Photography

Water Supply
Wastewater Treatment
Flood Control
Erosion Control
Storm Buffering
Education & Scientific Research
Cultural/Archaeologica

Shrimp Harvest


Shrimp Harvest could soon be a painful memory. Credit:ESTUARINE SYSTEM
TEXAS PARKS & WILDLIFE DEPARTMENT

Is that all wetlands do? Well, not quite, but it’ll do for now!

Did You Know?

Since 1990, BP subsidiaries in the US have been convicted 3 times, including two felonies, for committing environmental crimes in the states of Alaska and Texas.

BP’s worst disaster, prior to the ongoing catastrophe in the Gulf of Mexico,  occurred  in 2005, when an explosion ripped through its Texas City refinery near Galveston, killing 15 employees, and injuring at least 180 others. The toxic plumes released during the blast forced thousands of nearby residents to stay indoors for a period of time to avoid serious harm.

In a subsequent investigation, BP was found responsible for the blast and it pleaded guilty to a felony violation of the Clean Air Act. BP was fined $50 million and sentenced to 3 years probation. The Occupational Health and Safety Administration (OSHA) fined BP $87 million after its inspectors found 270 standing safety violations that BP should have fixed but hadn’t, as well as 439 new violations.

Official Site of Deepwater Response Unified Command

The Official Site of Deepwater Response Unified Command is posting photos and charts on its Flickr site. The majority of the photos are taken by employees of government organization, US Coast Guard and Navy personnel. Yet, for some inexplicable reason each and everyone of these photos, charts, and graphs carries a copyright notice. Could someone from the command explain why?

New Documents

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Posted in energy security, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster: Satellite Photo – Update May 8

Posted by feww on May 8, 2010

Already, the Gulf oil spill and the subsequent application of dispersant have caused incalculable damage to seafood

Oysters, shrimp, crabs and other shellfish in the Gulf of Mexico generate at least $6.5 billion in revenues annually.

“It [oyster] is not only the economic engine of this region, it is a real indicator of the environmental and ecological health of the Gulf Coast area,” said Jamie R. Clark, former head of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and executive VP of  Defenders of Wildlife, a local conservation group.

NOAA Fishing Restriction News UPDATE:

NOAA has expanded commercial and recreational Fishing closure in oil-affected sections of Gulf of Mexico.  The closed area restricts fishing in about 5 percent of the Gulf waters. The earlier closure, which came into effect  last Sunday, covered  less than 3 percent of the Gulf of Mexico federal waters.  The fishing restriction will remain in place until May 17, NOAA said.

Oil Spill Reaches Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana


Light tan streamers snake across Chandeleur Sound in this detailed natural-color satellite image from May 5, 2010. The streamers surround Freemason Island and arc through Chandeleur Sound west of the Chandeleur Islands. The image is from the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) satellite.

The Chandeleur Islands are low, sandy barrier islands that are constantly being reshaped by storms, wind, and waves. Together with the Breton Islands to their south, they form the Breton National Wildlife Refuge. A variety of seabirds and shorebirds inhabit the islands, including the endangered brown pelican, least tern, and piping plover. Thousands of brown pelicans and other shorebirds are currently nesting on the islands and sea turtle nesting season is approaching, says the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Image and Caption: NASA E/O. Download large image (3 MB, JPEG)

Trajectory Forecast

Mississippi Canyon 252 -NOAA/NOS/OR&R
Estimate for: 0600 CDT, Monday, 5/10/10 — Date Prepared: 1300 CDT, Friday, 5/07/10


This forecast is based on the NWS spot forecast from Friday, May 7 AM. Currents were obtained from the NOAA Gulf of Mexico, Texas A&M/TGLO, and NAVO/NRL models; and HFR measurements. The model was initialized from satellite imagery and analysis provided by NOAA/NESDIS obtained Thursday morning, and Thursday/Friday
overflight observations. The leading edge may contain tarballs that are not readily observable from the imagery (hence not included in the model initialization).
Click image to enlarge.

News and Updates:


Two lines of oil booms are set up around one of the Chandeleur Islands, Louisiana May 7, 2010 as seen from a plane used by the environmental group Mobile Baykeeper and Southwings to look at the damage caused by the oil spill.  Credit: REUTERS/Brian Snyder. Image may be subject to copy right. Click image to enlarge.

Oysters, shrimp, crabs and other shellfish in the Gulf of Mexico generate at least $6.5 billion in revenues annually.

Oyster, high on the list of seafood gourmet, “is also the backbone of marine life along the U.S. Gulf Coast and among the most vulnerable creatures now threatened by a giant oil spill.”  More at Spill could devastate U.S. Gulf Coast oyster reefs

BP says its best chance is to use the giant dome to contain and pump out the oil spill.

The 98-ton steel monstrosity has been lowered to the seabed about 1.5km below the surface with the container suspended over the leak . The is conducted using remote-controlled devices.  “It will hover there until they are ready. They hope to lower to sea floor today, but they need to finish prepping the surface,” the Unified Command Center late update said. More at Containment dome suspended just above U.S. Gulf leak

Robots have fail to shut the valves on the leaking BP oil wellhead. BP said it has abandoned its efforts to close valves on the failed blowout preventer using underwater robots. “We’ve essentially used up all those options,” Doug Suttles, chief operating officer for BP US said.  “We don’t want to do anything that would make the situation worse.”  More at Robots fail to close valves at leaking BP oil well

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Posted in fishing restriction, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill, Louisiana seafood | Tagged: , , , , | 7 Comments »

NO New Offshore Drilling: Schwarzenegger Sees the Light

Posted by feww on May 4, 2010

Schwarzenegger nixes new offshore drilling  plan

The hell with the wages of sin, I ain’t ‘alloween’ NO new ‘dreellin,’ or words to that effect—Gov Arnold Schwarzenegger

Schwarzenegger may not be as suave  as the President, but he sure as oil spill is a lot smarter, and knows how catastrophe is spelled when he sees one made earlier. [He knows that California stands to lose more money from an offshore oil disaster,  than it would make from the royalties, if the new leases went ahead.]


I smell oil executives!

“It will not happen here in California.” Schwarzenegger said at a press conference. “If I have a choice between the $100 million [for state parks] and what I see in the Gulf of Mexico, I’d rather just figure out how to make up for that $100 million.”

Schwarzenegger had been very keen on a new oil drilling proposal called the ‘Tranquillon Ridge project,” as means of raising cash for the state’s federal parks amid a massive $18.6 billion budget deficit.

The project would have been California’s first new oil lease in 40 years. It proposed to drill new off Santa Barbara County from an existing platform. But the Governor says he has seen enough, and won’t allow new drilling.

“The governor has said he supported Tranquillon Ridge only as a last-ditch measure amid the state’s worst financial crisis in decades. And on Monday, he said even that support came only after ‘numerous studies’ showed how safe the drilling would be. Then, he said, he watched the news this weekend.” A report said.

“All of you have seen, when you turn on your televisions, the devastation in the Gulf,” he said. “I’m sure that they were also assured that it is safe to drill.”

Meanwhile, Gov. Schwarzenegger was quoted as saying on Monday, he would mount a vigorous defense of his landmark environmental legislation, vowing to “push back” against “greedy oil companies who want to keep polluting in our state.”

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Posted in California budget, environment, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

Gulf of Mexico Oil Leak – Detailed Satellite Image

Posted by feww on May 4, 2010

BP Oil Well in Gulf of Mexico Continues to Bleed Crude Oil


Heavy oil colors the surface of the Gulf of Mexico in this detailed satellite image, acquired by the ASTER on NASA’s Terra satellite on May 1, 2010. The image is made from both visible and infrared light, but the slick looks similar to a natural color image made solely from visible light. The heaviest oil is silver with slightly lighter concentrations radiating out in streaks of white. The water is black, though even the dark water is tainted with white, hinting at oil on the water’s surface throughout the image. Image and Caption: NASA. Click image for larger, detailed image.

Selected Reading

“BP oil spill 2010 news is revealing that BP is trying to offer settlements to some residents in Alabama. The BP oil spill is not their accident, according to BP CEO Tony Hayward, and now it appears that they are trying to get Alabama residents to agree to settlements that might be far less than they would get in a law suit. Some of the settlement agreements that BP is shopping around to coastline residents in Alabama stipulate that they will get a one-time payment of up to $5,000 in exchange for the residents giving up the right to sue the company. This could also mean that some of the offers are well below that $5,000 threshold, and it has already angered the Alabama attorney general.”  More …

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Posted in BP, BP oil spill, environment, gulf of mexico, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill | Tagged: , , , | 4 Comments »

‘I Hate BP, Bog Oil, Obama, US Lawmakers, Oil Lobby!’

Posted by feww on May 2, 2010

Image of the Day:

Oil Covered Northern Gannet Isn’t Amused

How would you feel if your air, water, food, soil and home was destroyed by greedy corporations, ineffective government and really nasty people all around?

“There’s enough oil out there that it is logical to think it will hit the shoreline. It’s just a question of where and when. Mother Nature gets a vote in this.” U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said.


A Northern Gannet bird is covered in oil, from a massive spill in the Gulf of Mexico, at a Clean Gulf Associates Mobile Wildlife Rehabilitation station in Fort Jackson, Louisiana April 30, 2010. Credit: REUTERS/Carlos Barria. Image may be subject to copyright.

Latest Development, News and Quotes:

  • If the lawmakers had NOT pandered to the wishes of the Oil Lobby, allowing their clients to operate without an essential safety feature, a  sonar device that is deployed at drilling cites as a last resort to shut down the flow of oil from an underwater well, this disaster, in all probability, would have been averted.  While the law in Brazil and Norway requires oil companies to deploy such devices near the oil well, the the US regulations do not require oil companies to operate one.
  • A “sheen” is approaching the Louisiana coast, Allen has confirmed.
  • “The company, BP, seems to have been slow to ask for help, and, on Friday, both federal and state officials accused it of not moving aggressively or swiftly enough. Yet the administration should not have waited, and should have intervened much more quickly on its own initiative.” A New York Times editorial on Saturday.
  • BP is ultimately responsible!” Said President Obama.  [We know that, but so are you and the government for allowing BP to do this, Mr president.]
  • “This oil spill threatens not only our wetlands and our fisheries… This isn’t just about our coast. It’s about our way of life in Louisiana: our shrimpers, our fishermen, our coast that makes Louisiana a sportsman’s paradise. …This oil spill threatens our way of life. ” Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal warned. [Could you rephrase that to: More drilling in the Gulf threatens the collapse of Louisiana, neighboring states and the whole country? IF you want more proof just wait!]
  • “Satellite images analyzed by the University of Miami suggest the slick has ballooned to an area the size of Puerto Rico.” A news bulletin said. [Note: Puerto Rico is the 169 largest country in the world with an area of about 9,100 square kilometer  (~ 3,500 sq miles).
  • “We need to have something out there. Once it gets into the marsh it is too late. Once it gets behind these islands, through these little canals, you will never clean it up.” The president of Louisiana’s Plaquemines Parish area, Bill Nungesser said, warning that the oil pollution  could result to catastrophic harm to the area.
  • The Gulf of Mexico nightmare enters a new phase—the first stage in the collapse of the Gulf states may have begun. —Fire Earth


NOAA Forecast of the Oil Spill for May 2, 2010. Click Image to enlarge.


NOAA Forecast of the Oil Spill for May 3, 2010. Click Image to enlarge.


Unified Command releases an image showing booming locations as of May 1, 2010. Creative Commons License. Click image to enlarge.

Continued …

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Posted in Deepwater Horizon, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill, Northern Gannet | Tagged: , , , , | 5 Comments »

Oil Spill: Drilling Ban Imposed in New Areas of US Coast

Posted by feww on April 30, 2010

“No additional drilling has been authorized and none will until we find out what happened”

White House adviser David Axelrod told ABC TV Network that Obama administration has now banned all drilling in new areas off the US coast pending investigations into the cause of the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

In March Mr Barrack Obama relaxed a moratorium on new oil and gas drilling in the US coastal areas.

The ban was prompted by the ongoing massive 5,000bpd oil leak into the Gulf of Mexico, which has now reached the Louisiana coast and threatens to pollute other coastal states shoreline including Florida.


Birds fly over oil on the water near Breton Sound Island, on the southern most tip of the Chandeleur Islands in the Gulf of Mexico, south of Louisiana, April 29, 2010.
Credit: Greenpeace, via Reuters.

The government has since designated the Gulf of Mexico oil disaster as an “incident of national significance”T and has sent the US Navy to help prevent what could turn out to be a major ecological and economic disaster.

As reported earlier Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency and is considering to deploy 6,000 National Guard troops to help the US Coast Guard and the Navy.

The worst thing that could happen now would be a major rupture in the damaged underwater well, resulting in a humongous amount of crude oil spilled into the Gulf.

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Posted in BP, environment, gulf of mexico, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill, Transocean | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

Gulf Oil Spill and Other News Headlines-Apr 30

Posted by feww on April 30, 2010

Should We Fear Space Aliens? (CNN)

No, but we sure as hell ought to fear the terrestrial aliens that come and spill oil in our waters!

[Funny how CNN and that British professor bring this alien thing out every time there’s a big disaster to distract people from the real issues.]

0O0

U.S. Gulf state shrimpers sue BP over oil spill

BP, Transocean and Halliburton sued over Gulf oil spill

“Shrimpers in Louisiana and Alabama have filed class-action lawsuits against oil giant BP Plc  and owners of the drilling platform that exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, as claims for economic losses anticipated from the disaster began to mount.

“Two similar lawsuits, filed late on Wednesday in U.S. District Court in New Orleans and on Thursday in the adjacent Gulf Coast state of Alabama, accuse the companies of negligence.” More…

This is the time to get it all out, claim damages for loss of livelihood, clean land, beaches … and hopefully drive one of the ugly green [and yellow] giants out of business, folks.

0O0

Wildlife in Peril as Slick Nears Gulf Coast

Oil, Already Sliding into Louisiana Waters, Threatens Newly Hatched Fish Larvae

“As a giant oil slick neared landfall late Thursday, field crews raced to barricade the Gulf coast’s fragile wetlands and beaches, where thousands of wildfowl are nesting at the height of their breeding season and millions of migrating birds pause in their annual spring journey north.” More…

The Gulf of Mexico nightmare enters a new phase—the first stage in the collapse of the Gulf states may have begun.

0O0

Barrack Obama pledges maximum effort to tackle oil leak

Mr Barrack Obama has gone on record as saying that “every single available resource” of government will be deployed to help contain the Gulf Coast oil leak. More…

However, he refused to comment on the future of offshore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico, Alaska and elsewhere.

0O0

Oil Spill’s Blow to BP’s Image May Eclipse Costs

“BP says that the offshore drilling accident that is spewing thousands of barrels of oil a day into the Gulf of Mexico could cost the company several hundred million dollars.”

“But regardless of the out-of-pocket costs, the long-term damage to BP’s reputation — and possibly, its future prospects for drilling in the Gulf of Mexico — is likely to be far higher, according to industry analysts.”  More…

BP is one of the top 3 polluters in the world responsible for a large volume of oil pollution. Sue them, by all means. Drive them out of business. But don’t also forget to sue the disinformation industry, the media, which has stopped you hearing us shouting from the top of our voices, warning you about the dangers that lurk under the water, and inside the earth.

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Posted in Deepwater Horizon, environment, gulf of mexico, gulf of mexico oil leak, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

Gulf of Mexico Oil Leak – Update Apr 28

Posted by feww on April 28, 2010

Prepared for another Major Disaster?

BP: Greedy Like Goldman Sachs

Why Should Big Oil Live to Pollute another Day?

If the economy is designed to serve the people [sic,] how is it that the monetary profit goes to a few and the debt to the environment?

If the leaks in the Gulf of Mexico oil well are not sealed, the spill could become one of the worst disasters  in US history: Coast Guard Rear Admiral Mary Landry

“… this could be one of the most significant oil spills in U.S. history,” she said.

BP, Transocean and rest of the gang should have at least had a fail-safe contingency plan to contain oil leaks and prevent damage to the environment. But they didn’t. Why? Because such things are expensive and hurt their bottom line.

Deepwater Summary and who said what:

  • Crude oil is leaking from two  sources about 1,525m (5,000ft ) under the surface, which have been leaking since Deepwater Horizon platform exploded and sank, but were only discovered  on Saturday.
  • The leaks are spewing at least 1,000 barrels of oil into the gulf of Mexico, near the coast of Louisiana.
  • The resulting oil slick now has a circumference of more than 600 (1,000km) 650 miles covering  about 80,000 sq km (31,000 sq miles), “with areas of emulsified crude approximately 36 miles offshore the coast of Louisiana.”
  • Weather conditions on April 27  hampered clean up operation with winds from northwest, and choppy seas with 3 to 4 foot waves.
  • If the oil reached Louisiana coast, it could destroy coastal ecology, the wildlife and nature reserves, as well as the devastating the state’s fisheries, oyster beds and other marine-based livelihoods, according to an environmentalist at Tulane University.
  • Sealing the leaks with remote-control robotic submersibles could take many months, said US Coast Guard Rear Adm Mary Landry, who is in charge of the clean-up operation.
  • The Coast Guard is considering whether to burn off the oil corralled in the boom, “trying to minimize the environmental impact,” aid a Coast Guard spokesman.
  • “The wind will nudge the oil slick more to the north-northwest,” said a  senior meteorologist at AccuWeather. “It might make it onshore over the southeast Louisiana coast first,” and could later pollute beaches in Mississippi, Alabama and Florida, he said.
  • Other meteorologists also believe a shift in wind could drive the spill to Louisiana coast by the weekend.

Click images to enlarge


BP Horizon Response Current State(2). Source. Creative Commons license.

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Posted in Deepwater Horizon, gulf of mexico, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill, Macondo well | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Louisiana Coast Oil Leak Disaster Underway

Posted by feww on April 25, 2010

Offshore Louisiana Well: “very serious spill”

Oil Well Beneath Sunken Deepwater Horizon Leaking 1,000 BPD

We thought it was a fairy tale as far as the capping of the well story went …

The oil well that was being pumped out by the doomed Deepwater Horizon oil rig is spewing crude oil at a rate of 1,000 barrels per day (bpd),  the U.S. Coast Guard said on Saturday.

[Note: 1,000 barrels = 42,000 US gallons, or ~ 160,000 liters]

The well, located on the ocean floor, some 1,500m (~5,000 feet) beneath the ocean surface,  is causing what the Coast Guard called a “very serious spill.”

A Coast Guard spokeswoman said a  remote-controlled submarine detected oil leaking from both the riser and drill pipe.

“We are classifying this as a very serious spill and we are using all our resources to help contain it,” the Coast Guard Petty Officer Connie Terrell said.

The ill-fated Deepwater Horizon, owned by Transocean Ltd and operated by the oil Goliath BP, sank on Thursday. The rig had been burning for two days after exploding  at about 10 p.m. CDT on Tuesday (02:00UTC Wednesday), about 66km (~ 41 miles) off the Louisiana.

The search for 11 crew members was abandoned on Friday. Four of the 17 crew members who were injured were said to be in critical condition.

As of Sunday an oil slick measuring about 1,600 square kilometers (~ 600 square miles), covered an area close to the US coast line. The slick is spreading north moving toward Mississippi and Alabama coastline, the U.S. Coast Guard reported.

On Saturday Fire-Earth Moderators said: “This situation, of course, could change because oil wells gushing at a rate of 8,000 barrels per day don’t heal automatically after a fire.”

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Posted in gulf of mexico, Gulf of Mexico Exploration, Gulf of Mexico oil Spill, offsore drilling | Tagged: , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Offshore Oil Rig Explodes

Posted by feww on April 21, 2010

Oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico off Louisiana’s coast explodes many injured, missing

Seventeen crew workers seriously injured, 3 of them critically, 15 others missing

The explosion occurred on Deepwater Horizon, an offshore oil-drilling platform 66km (41 miles) southeast of Venice, Louisiana, at about 10 p.m. (ET) Tuesday, the US Coast Guard said.


‘State of the art,’ semisubmersible Deepwater Horizon Oil Rig on Fire, April 20, 2010 at approximately 10:00 p.m. central time. Photo: Scott Lloyd/United States Coast Guard.

The fire was “large and intense,” and the rig was still burning Wednesday morning, according to various reports. “It’s burning pretty good and there’s no estimate on when the fire will be put out,” a coast Guard officer said.

The rig owners, Transocean, said the rig has been on lease to BP Exploration & Production since September 2007.

No news concerning the extent of oil pollution that would most probably have occurred as a result of fire was available as of posting.


Deepwater Horizon Location Map.
No information was made available concerning the extent of probable oil pollution, which may have been caused by the massive fire on the oil platform, as of posting. Base Map: Google Earth. Click image to enlarge.

The Deepwater Horizon before the explosion

News Release: Transocean Ltd. Reports Fire on Semisubmersible Drilling Rig Deepwater Horizon

ZUG, SWITZERLAND, Apr 21, 2010 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) –Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG) (SIX: RIGN) today reported a fire onboard its semisubmersible drilling rig Deepwater Horizon. The incident occurred April 20, 2010 at approximately 10:00 p.m. central time in the United States Gulf of Mexico. The rig was located approximately 41 miles offshore Louisiana on Mississippi Canyon block 252.

Transocean’s Emergency and Family Response Teams are working with the U.S. Coast Guard and lease operator BP Exploration & Production, Inc. to care for all rig personnel and search for missing rig personnel. A substantial majority of the 126 member crew is safe but some crew members remain unaccounted for at this time. Injured personnel are receiving medical treatment as necessary. The names and hometowns of injured persons are being withheld until family members can be notified.

Transocean is the world’s largest offshore drilling contractor and the leading provider of drilling management services worldwide. With a fleet of 140 mobile offshore drilling units plus three ultra-deepwater units under construction, the company’s fleet is considered one of the most modern and versatile in the world due to its emphasis on technically demanding segments of the offshore drilling business. Its worldwide fleet is more than twice the size of the next-largest competitor. The company owns or operates a contract drilling fleet of 46 High-Specification Floaters (Ultra-Deepwater, Deepwater and Harsh-Environment semisubmersibles and drillships), 26 Midwater Floaters, 10 High-Specification Jackups, 55 Standard Jackups and other assets utilized in the support of offshore drilling activities worldwide.  SOURCE: Transocean Ltd.

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Posted in BP, Deepwater Horizon, gulf of mexico, offshore Drilling, oil and gas drilling | Tagged: , , , , , , | 6 Comments »

Hurricane Bill Shifts Up Into Cat 4

Posted by feww on August 19, 2009

For updates see Atlantic Hurricanes 2009

Bill strengthens into category 4 hurricane, eying top level

rgb - bill at cat 4
Hurricane Bill strengthened to a Cat 4 on Saffir-Simpson scale. Click image to enlarge and update. See also FEWW New Hurricane Scale.

[Meanwhile NASA’s MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center, is still measuring Bill as he was on August 17.]

NHC: Hurricane BILL Data  – Summary

5:00 AM AST Wed Aug 19 (9:00 UTC)
Location: 18.0°N 54.9°W
Max sustained:  215 km/h (135 mph)
Moving: WNW at 26 km/h (16 mph)
Min pressure: 71.1 cmHg (948 mb)

Hurricane Bill is expected to strengthen further, NHC said.  Adding that, bill will create large swells which would  impact the islands of  the northeast Caribbean sea in the next 48 hours. Bermuda and parts of  the SE coast of the US would be affected similarly, Friday and Saturday.

For background information,  details of Bill’s progress and additional images, see Atlantic Hurricanes 2009.

FEWW Comments: There’s a small probability of about 0.15  that Bill could move in a westerly direction toward the Gulf of Mexico, making his first landfall on the coast of Alabama.

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Posted in BERMUDA, Caribbean Sea, gulf of mexico, hurricane report, landfall in Alabama | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

Bill Becomes Hurricane, Strengthening

Posted by feww on August 17, 2009

For regular updates see Atlantic Hurricanes 2009

Images of the Day: Bill Became a Hurricane

TS  Bill became the first hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season today, about 1,870 km east of the Lesser Antilles islands of the Caribbean, the national hurricane center reported.

Bill has sustained 120 kilometer per hour winds, as it races west across the Atlantic Ocean.

The “Twin-Engine” Hurricane Bill

Bill’s strong, “twin-Engine” symmetry may help it strengthen to a major hurricane as it races west across the Atlantic.

ir4-l  - BILL
Hurricane Bill. Still Frame printed for reference (Unenhanced). To enlarge and update, Click on the image. Image source: NOAA

jsl-l  hurricane Bill IR
Hurricane Bill.
Still Frame printed for reference (JSL enhancement).
To enlarge and update, Click on the image. Image source: NOAA

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Posted in Ana, Claudette, gulf of Mex Oil ops, gulf of mexico, Hurricane Bill | Tagged: , , , , | 1 Comment »

Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE

Posted by feww on August 17, 2009

The Third Tropical Storm in Just Over a Day forms Off the Coast of Florida

After a slow start to the six-month Atlantic hurricane season,  CLAUDETTE, the third Atlantic tropical storm of the year formed just over a day after TS Ana and Bill, on Sunday.

TS CLAUDETTE, according to the US National Hurricane Center Intermediate Advisory 4A, as of 8:00 PM EDT was located at  29.7N 85.9W with Max.  sustained winds of 80km/h (50 MPH) moving northwest (310 degrees) at a cruising  speed of about 19km/h  (12 MPH) with a minimum central pressure of 1008MB.

TS force winds radiate outward up to about 110km from the center. Claudette is expected to dump up to 15cm of rain across Florida Panhandle, the big Bend region of Florida, Central and S. Alabama, and extreme SW Georgia, the NHC advisory said, with the storm tide rising to a maximum of 150cm.

How Ana and Bill are doing

Tropical Storm Ana collapsed into a tropical depression on Sunday, and could still be downgraded further and disappear altogether very soon

Bill is the guy to watch for. Some forecasts expect Bill to grow into a  Category 3 hurricane [cat 3  and stronger hurricanes are designated as a major categories,] with winds of more than 180 km/h in the next 3 to 4 days.

The Gulf of Mexico oil and gas operations are unaffected for now, however, they could be pummeled later in the season.

Meanwhile, hurricane Guillermo is about to cross into central Pacific.

claudette rb
Claudette satellite image – rainbow enhancement curve – still frame as dated. To enlarge and update click on the image.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

203214W5_NL_sm
To enlarge and update click on the image.

fws prob
To enlarge and update click on the image.

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Posted in 2009 named storms, Florida deluge, gulf of mexico, hurricanes 2009, tropical storms 2009 | Tagged: , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Meet Bill and Ana, 2009 First Named Storms

Posted by feww on August 16, 2009

2009 Tropical Storm Season Off to Busy Start

bill and ana

The red shaded area covering about a half of Florida panhandle is small area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico centered about 130km SW of Tampa, which according to the  NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center is becoming better organized with the possibility of developing a “closed surface circulation” with a more than 50 percent probability of developing into a Tropical Cyclone later today.

GULF  IR
Area of low pressure, Gulf of Mexico, IR image.  Click on the image to enlarge and update.

“THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH TODAY.  INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF
COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.” NHC said.

Meanwhile, back in the ocean, Ana and Bill are moving west across the Atlantic Ocean
TS ANA  RAINBOW IMAGE
TS ANA: Click on the image to enlarge and update.

TS ANA: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
ANA 024714W5_NL_sm
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

ana 2
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours.
Click on the image to enlarge and update.

BILL rb-l
TS BILL:
Click on the image to enlarge and update.

TS BILL: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
BILL 024741W5_NL_sm
Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

BILL 024741
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

FEWW Forecast: Florida, the north and NE Gulf areas may be in for an extremely wet season in 2009.

Posted in Florida deluge, gulf of mexico, path of TS Ana, Path of TS BILL, Tropical Storm watch | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

Mag 7.1 Offshore Quake Rattles Honduras

Posted by feww on May 28, 2009

Magnitude 7.1 Strikes Offshore Honduras

Magnitude 7.1 quake struck offshore Honduras, killing at least one person at La Lima and damaging several buildings Thursday.  The quake was felt throughout Honduras as well as  in Belize, where several buildings were also  damaged or destroyed, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico and Nicaragua.

Seiche in swimming pools reported at La Ceiba and Roatan, USGS Felt Report said. No tsunami warning was issued.

The mainshock was followed by a 4.8 Mw aftershock, about 40 minutes later.

us2009heak Honduras
Location Map. 10-degree Map Centered at 15°N,85°W [USGS]

Earthquake Details:

Magnitude 7.1
Date-Time:

  • Thursday, May 28, 2009 at 08:24:45 UTC
  • Thursday, May 28, 2009 at 03:24:45 AM at epicenter

Location: 16.729°N, 86.212°W
Depth: 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region: OFFSHORE HONDURAS
Distances:

  • 125 km (75 miles) NNE of La Ceiba, Honduras
  • 220 km (135 miles) N of TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras
  • 310 km (195 miles) NNE of TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras
  • 1185 km (730 miles) SSW of Miami, Florida

Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 4.3 km (2.7 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters: NST=290, Nph=290, Dmin=316.9 km, Rmss=1.15 sec, Gp= 36°,  M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8

Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID us2009heak

honduras

NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the coasts of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico states, and Eastern Canadian provinces. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Based on the earthquake location, magnitude, and historic tsunami records, a damaging tsunami IS NOT expected along the Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, U.S. Atlantic, Eastern Canadian and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Earthquakes of this size can generate destructive tsunamis along the coast near the epicenter. Authorities in the epicentral region should be aware of this possibility and take appropriate action.

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Posted in BELIZE, El Salvador, gulf of mexico, Mexico, Tegucigalpa | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »

FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record

Posted by feww on May 24, 2009

Drought and Deluge: The Buzzwords for 2009

Extreme Weather,Tropical Storms, Heavy Rainfalls, Moisture Dump by Intertropical Convergence Zone and Other Hydrological Mechanisms Would Ensure Perpetual Drought and Deluge in 2009 and Beyond

If 2009 won’t be remembered for the frequency of tropical storms, it could most likely be recorded as one of the wettest years, so far.

Drought and deluge would be the buzz words for the remainder of this year. Already significantly large geographical regions have been inundated by flooding caused by extreme rain events and storms worldwide.

In northern New South Wales, Australia, a week of heavy rainfall and cyclonic winds  have left thousands of hectares of coastal plains under water. Huge waves have pummeled the coastal regions, disrupting shipping activities in  major ports.

Every major river in the region has risen above historical records, most of them bursting their banks. Floodwaters have swept cars into the sea. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes.


Residents make their way through the flooded streets of South Lismore May 22, 2009.  REUTERS/Michael Ross/Gold Coast Bulletin/Handout

In northern and northeastern Brazil, record heavy rains have forced up to half of a million people homeless, killing about 50. [Southern Brazil is experiencing extreme droughts, which have devastated the farmers in the region cutting their natural water supply by up to 50 percent.


An aerial view of the town of Anama, flooded by water from the Rio Solimoes river in Amazonas State, May 19, 2009. Floods and mudslides from months of heavy rains in northern Brazil have driven more than 300,000 from their homes and killed at least 44 people, according to Brazilian Civil Defense. REUTERS/Michael Dantas-A Critica (BRAZIL DISASTER ENVIRONMENT) BRAZIL OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN BRAZIL

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA says its 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts “a 50% chance of a near-normal season,” a 25% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. [The Atlantic hurricane region comprises the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.]

Just so that reader is not confused, NOAA provides the following table [information in the brackets added]

  • 9-14 Named Storms [Normal:11]
  • 4-7 Hurricanes  [6]
  • 1-3 Major Hurricanes [2]
  • An ACE range of 65%-130% of the median [100%]

[NOTE: This sort of forecast ensures that the forecaster is rarely embarrassed for not covering ALL probabilities]

Colorado State University report says:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have about as much activity as the average 1950-2000 season.

Expect about:

  • 6 hurricanes (average is 5.9),
  • 12 named storms (average is 9.6),
  • 55 named storm days (average is 49.1),
  • 25 hurricane days (average is 24.5),
  • 2 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and
  • 5 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).

University of North Carolina Forecast

The good professor marooned on the totally boring, uneventful University of North Carolina’s deserted campus had this to say [before academic rigor mortis set in]

Researchers at North Carolina State University believe that 2009 will bring a near-normal hurricane season, with storm activity in the Atlantic basin and the Gulf of Mexico slightly above the averages of past 50 years, but staying in line with those from the past 20 years.

According to Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and collaborators Dr. Montserrat Fuentes, professor of statistics, and graduate student Danny Modlin, 2009 should see 11 to 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Frankly, a history professor and his undergrad students could have done … pretty much about the same.

For readers new to hurricane science, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1, and lasts through November 30 every year. Each tropical system is given a name as soon as their storm strength reaches  sustained winds of 39 mph or more. Tropical storms are upgraded to  hurricanes when sustain wind speed reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds rise to 111 mph.  The first TS for 2009 will be Ana. [See also FEWW Hurricane Scale.]

More will follow …

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Posted in 2009 hurricanes forecast, 2009 named storms, 2009 storms forecast, Atlantic basin, gulf of mexico | Tagged: , , , , | 4 Comments »

Tropical Storm EDOUARD forms in the Gulf of Mexico

Posted by feww on August 4, 2008

Most of the U.S. offshore oil rigs and the Gulf Coast refineries fall within the predicted path of Edouard

EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD – HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


RGB Enhanced Satellite Image – NOAA

More images:

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA – GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA – INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES (145 KM) SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES (670 KM) EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH (6 KM/HR) AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK – THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY – AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH(85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS – EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL
.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER
.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST…TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION…28.1 N…88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. — FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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