Posts Tagged ‘Papua New Guinea’
Posted by feww on February 25, 2018
Liljan – 022502
Powerful Earthquake Occurs 89km SSW of Porgera, Papua New Guinea —USGS
EQ Details:
Magnitude: 7.5mww (±0.1)
Location: 6.149°S, 142.766°E (±7.1 km) – 89km SSW of Porgera, Papua New Guinea
Time: 2018-02-25 17:44:44.380 UTC
FE Region: NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA (202)
[Fatalities expected.]
Aftershock:
M 5.5
5.760°S, 142.244°E [110km WSW of Porgera, Papua New Guinea]
39.0 km
2018-02-25 18:11:34 (UTC)
earthquake, M7.5, Papua New Guinea, Porgera
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Posted in News Alert | Tagged: earthquake, M7.5, Papua New Guinea, Porgera | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on June 3, 2017
G-209D
[EQ details are subject to multiple updates, due to USGS personnels’ inexperience and other internal factors. Editor]
M 6.8 – 203km NW of Attu Station, Alaska [USGS]
Initially, the quake was reported incorrectly as a 6.9-magnitude event, striking at a depth of 30.6km.
Magnitude: 6.8 mww
54.082°N, 170.930°E [203km NW of Attu Station, Alaska]
Depth: 10.0 km
Time: 2017-06-02 22:24:48 UTC
FIRE-EARTH References: DRN1, 000104 – 052701
Aftershocks [as of posting]
M5.2
53.841°N 170.987°E [183km NW of Attu Station, Alaska]
10.0 km
2017-06-02 22:32:37 (UTC)
M4.1
180km NW of Attu Station, Alaska
10.0 km
2017-06-03 01:28:32 (UTC)
Papua New Guinea
M 5.9
Location: 4.726°S, 145.128°E [92km NW of Madang, Papua New Guinea]
Depth: 190.9 km
Time: 2017-06-02 23:48:17 (UTC)
Japan Region
M 5.1
Location: 24.327°N, 126.213°E [107km ESE of Hirara, Japan]
Depth: 31.4 km
Time: 2017-06-02 17:26:31 (UTC)
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: Alaska, Aleutian Trench, Attu, DRN1, earthquake, Fire-Earth Alert, Japan Region, M6.8, Near Islands, Papua New Guinea | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on March 23, 2016
How much water do you need?
Worldwide, some 650 million people are without clean water and more than 2.3 billion people have no access to basic sanitation, says a new report.
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends 50 liters of water per person per day as the ‘intermediate’ quantity needed to maintain health, hygiene and for all domestic uses.
But how much does 50 liters of water cost?
- Cost In Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea – 50l of water bought from a delivery service:
£1.84 [54% of typical low daily salary for a snack stall-holder]
[£1.00 (GBP) = $1.41 (USD) today.]
- In Antananarivo, Madagascar – from a tanker truck:
£0.50 [45% of typical low daily salary for a factory worker]
- In Accra, Ghana – from a tanker truck:
£0.45 [25% of typical low daily salary for a street food-seller]
In India it can cost up to a fifth of the daily wage to buy a day’s worth of water!
- In Maputo, Mozambique – from a street vendor:
£0.09 [13% of typical low daily salary for a street food-seller]
- In London, UK – from an official piped supply:
£0.07 [0.15% of typical low daily salary for a person on minimum wage]

Source: The State of the World’s Water 2016
WaterAid’s 2016 report
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: clean water, cost of water, daily water need, extreme poverty, Papua New Guinea, water in poor countries, WaterAid | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on May 7, 2015
Last Update: 08:38:22
M7.1 Earthquake Shakes Bougainville Island, North Solomons
MINOR SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS OF UP TO 0.3 METERS ABOVE AND
BELOW THE NORMAL TIDE MAY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS — US Tsunami Center
TSUNAMI WAVES REACHING 0.3 TO 1 METERS ABOVE THE TIDE LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME COASTS OF PAPUA NEW GUINEA — US Tsunami Center
EQ Details
Magnitude: 7.1 Mw [USGS/EHP]
Location: 7.226°S, 154.551°E
Depth: 23.2 km
Time: 2015-05-07 07:10:22 UTC
Nearest Cities:
- 144km (89mi) SW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea
- 156km (97mi) SW of Arawa, Papua New Guinea
- 406km (252mi) SE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea
- 521km (324mi) ESE of Kimbe, Papua New Guinea
- 642km (399mi) WNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands
more details will follow…
Posted in News Alert | Tagged: Bougainville Island, earthquake, M7.1, North Solomons, Papua New Guinea, PNG, Solomon Islands | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on December 7, 2014
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SEISMIC HAZARDS
SCENARIOS: 704, 703, 700, [500,] 09, 08, 07, 02
.
M6.8 Strikes Papua New Guinea (PNG)
Centered at 6.537°S, 154.455°E the quake occurred at a depth of 10.0km (6.2mi), said USGS/EHP.
Event Time: 2014-12-07 01:22:00 UTC
Location: 6.537°S 154.455°E depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
Nearby Cities
- 116km (72mi) WSW of Panguna, PNG
- 124km (77mi) WSW of Arawa, PNG
- 685km (426mi) WNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands
The quake did not generate a destructive tsunami.
At least 4 significant aftershocks, one measuring 5.7Mw followed the quake as of posting.
M6.0 strikes near Punta de Burica, Panama
Magnitude: 6.0Mw [USGS/EHP]
Event Time: 2014-12-06 17:21:49 UTC
Location: 8.013°N 82.703°W depth=14.0km (8.7mi)
Nearby Cities:
- 18km (11mi) E of Punta de Burica, Panama
- 34km (21mi) SSE of Puerto Armuelles, Panama
- 49km (30mi) SW of Pedregal, Panama
- 54km (34mi) SSW of David, Panama
- 261km (162mi) SE of San Jose, Costa Rica
Deadly Earthquake Strikes Yunnan Province, China
A deadly earthquake measuring magnitude 5.8 struck Jinggu County in southwest China’s Yunnan province on Saturday, killing at least one person and leaving 15 others injured, reported the official Xinhua news.
The quake was centered at 23.3N, 100.5E striking at a depth of 9km, the China Earthquake Networks Center said.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast
For detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts tune into Fire-Earth Reports daily @ 06:32UTC.
Posted in earthquake report | Tagged: 7 December 2014, China, earthquake forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Significant Earthquake | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 7, 2014
SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 700, 08, 07, 02
.
M6.6 strikes 72km NNE of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea
Centered at 6.04°S, 148.21°E the quake occurred at a depth of about 43km, said USGS/EHP.
EQ Details
Magnitude: 6.6Mw
Event Time: 2014-11-07 03:33:54 UTC
Location: 6.044°S, 148.210°E depth=43.2km (26.8mi)
Nearby Cities
- 72km (45mi) NNE of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea
- 154km (96mi) ENE of Lae, Papua New Guinea
- 392km (244mi) NNE of Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea
Recent EQs in PNG Region
IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast For detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts tune into FIRE-EARTH Channel daily @ 06:32UTC.
Posted in earthquake forecast, Earthquake Information, Earthquake news, earthquake report | Tagged: Finschhafen, FIRE-EARTH earthquake FORECAST, Papua New Guinea, PNG, Port Moresby, Significant Quake | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on January 24, 2012
Alabama Declares a State of Emergency in All 67 Counties
Deadly tornadoes and severe storms leave at least 2 dead, more than a hundred injured and hundreds of homes destroyed or damaged.
Disaster Calendar 2012 – January 24
[January 24, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,513 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History
- Alabama, USA.Gov. Bentley has declared a state of emergency in all 67 counties after deadly tornadoes and severe storms left at least 2 dead, more than a hundred injured and hundreds of homes destroyed or damaged.
- Heavy rains has intensified flooding across North Alabama.
- Chilton County: WKLF RADIO STUDIO DESTROYED … AND 302 FOOT TRANSMISSION TOWER WAS TOPPLED AT THE INTERSECTION OF ALABAMA HIGHWAY 22 AND COUNTY ROAD 37. (Source: SPC)
- Butler County: DAMAGE TO METAL BUILDING WITH ONE INJURED NEARBY. (Source: SPC)

US Tornado Map Jan 23, 2012. (Source: SPC)

US Tornado Map Jan 22, 2012 -UPDATED. (Source: SPC)
Southern U.S. Wintertime Tornado Outbreak
Several damage surveys were completed today in the wake of a tornado outbreak in Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama last night. Most of the damage surveyed so far has been rated EF-2 on the Enhanced Fujita scale, indicating considerable damage with wind speeds reaching between 111 and 135 mph. However, the tornado that passed through Clay, Alabama, which is just north of Birmingham has been rated an EF-3. This tornado produced significant damage and was capable of wind speeds between 136 and 165 mph. (Source: NWS)
- The Storm Prediction Center received 23 tornado reports, 118 high wind reports and 35 large hail reports from Sunday’s outbreak:
- Arkansas: 10 tornado reports
- Alabama: 9
- Mississippi: 2
- NWS STORM SURVEY DETERMINES AN EF-2 TORNADO WITH MAX EST WINDS OF 120 MPH CAUSED SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE IN EXTREME NE BOLIVAR COUNTY. PATH LENGTH 3.75 MI. (NWS)
- Tennessee: 1
- Kentucky: 1
- TORNADO BEGAN AT HAZEL KY TO NEW PROVIDENCE KY. 100 YRDS WIDE AND 5.6 MILES LONG. PK WND 95MPH. PROPERTY DAMAGE 50K. HUNDREDS OF TREES UPROOTED/SNAPPED. HOUSE WITH SHIN. (NWS)
- Georgia: 2 tornadoes struck Macon and Dooly Counties Saturday, NWS said.
Tornadoes have destroyed or damaged about 500 homes throughout the region and uprooted/snapped thousands of trees.
Other Global Disasters
- Papua New Guinea (PNG). A massive landslide has completely buried two villages in PNG.
- “The landslide is about a kilometer long and about 300 meters wide. There are people buried underneath and a number of them are from what I have heard, children.” Local MP Francis Potape has told Radio Australia.
- At least 40 people are reportedly missing, reports said.
- The landslide occurred near Exxon-Mobil’s liquefied natural gas project in the new Hela Province, blocking the main road and stopping work at the site and a nearby airfield.
Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background
Posted in global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters | Tagged: Alabama State of Emergency, Deadly tornadoes, Dividends of Climate Change, Exxon-Mobil LNG, Landslide, Papua New Guinea, PNG LNG, severe storms, Severe Weather, Tornado Alley, US Tornado Alley, US tornado map, US Tornadoes | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on December 8, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 7 December 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies only changed in small regions across the equatorial Pacific.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During October –November 2009, positive temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the eastern equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period indicates the eastward expansion of positive anomalies has slowed in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
See: El Niño Update [30 Nov 2009]
Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

(A) The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with positive anomalies becoming established in late March.
(B) In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker-than-average easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.
Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average, but there has been considerable month-to-month variability due to Kelvin wave activity.
(C) During November, the downwellingphase of a Kelvin wave contributed to an increase in heat content.
Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warmp hase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.
Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s -1)
From April-October 2009, the MJO was weak to nonexistent. Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.During November 2009, the MJO became active, which contributed to anomalous easterlies shifting eastward from the Indian Ocean to the central and eastern Pacific. Recently, westerly anomalies have returned across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Pacific SST Outlook | Tagged: El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, Oceanic Niño Index, Papua New Guinea, Tropical Pacific SST | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on December 1, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 30 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.2ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some parts across the eastern Pacific.
|

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

TOP: Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
Middle: Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies remained over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
Above: Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across the eastern equatorial Pacific. An anticycloniccouplet was evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During October, a nearly zonal pattern of below-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with an anomalous ridge over Alaska and the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. During November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes had been replaced by strong anomalous ridges across the N. Pacific and much of N. America with below-average heights across Alaska. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United Statesand below-average temperatures in Alaska.
Intraseasonal Variability
- Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
- Related to this activity
- Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Pacific SST Outlook, Uncategorized | Tagged: australia, El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Niño Index, Papua New Guinea, Tropical Pacific SST | 2 Comments »
Posted by feww on November 24, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 23 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 140°W. [Expanding across the Tropical Pacific. FEWW ]

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in the Eq. Pacific
- The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m) heat content is greatestprior to and during the early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode (compare top 2 panels) and leastprior to and during the early stages of a cold(La Niña) episode.
- The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least (greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
- Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and the thermocline slope index (negative) reflect El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late September –mid November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 -150m depth.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Day

Click image to enlarge.
Intraseasonal Variability
- Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
- Related to this activity
- significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).


Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, ENSO | Tagged: australia, eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 17, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 16 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 140°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across
the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late September – early November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 – 150m depth.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
From mid-September through October, anomalous troughing was prevalent over the North Pacific Ocean. During October, the pattern of below-average heights became more zonal over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge developed over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. Since early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes has been replaced by anomalous ridges with below-average heights across the northernmost latitudes. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States.


Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: australia, eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on November 11, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 9 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 160°W.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the northern Philippines and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During mid September –October 2009, temperature anomalies increased and expanded eastward in the central equatorial Pacific at thermoclinedepth, due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the central Pacific near 100-150m depth.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
In late September and early October, an anomalous ridge developed over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough and below-average temperatures over parts of the U.S. During mid October, the pattern became more zonal with an anomalous trough evident over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and the eastern half of the U.S. Recently, anomalous ridges emerged over the eastern North Pacific and eastern U.S. leading to above-average temperatures over the western and eastern U.S.
Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s-1)
- Since April 2009, the MJO has been weak.
- Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.
- Recently, the largest westerly wind anomalies have been observed across the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least theNorthern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on November 3, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 2 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.6ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were located across the northern Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and central equatorial Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.


Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 1 November 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean SST, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean | Tagged: Climate Prediction, eastern Pacific, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 28, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 26 October 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.4ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.1ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased over the central Pacific.

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
- Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
- Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the central and eastern Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the western Pacific.
- Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Gulf of Alaska, Indian Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, wind anomaly | Tagged: australia, Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, western tropical pacific ocean | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 18, 2008
10 September-16 September 2008
New Activity/Unrest:
Bagana, Bougainville Island, Papua New Guinea
(September 16, 2008 ) Darwin VAAC analysis of satellite imagery revealed low-level ash plume from Bagana rising to an altitude of 2.4 km a.s.l., drifting SW.
More information and a Geologic Summary of Bagana

Bagana
Latitude: 6°8’24″S, Longitude: 155°11’42″E
Bagana volcano, occupying a remote portion of central Bougainville Island, is one of Melanesia’s youngest and most active volcanoes. Bagana is a massive symmetrical, roughly 1750-m-high lava cone largely constructed by an accumulation of viscous andesitic lava flows. The entire lava cone could have been constructed in about 300 years at its present rate of lava production. Eruptive activity at Bagana is frequent and is characterized by non-explosive effusion of viscous lava that maintains a small lava dome in the summit crater, although explosive activity occasionally producing pyroclastic flows also occurs. Lava flows form dramatic, freshly preserved tongue-shaped lobes up to 50-m-thick with prominent levees that descend the volcano’s flanks on all sides. (Image and caption: Global Volcanic Program. Image may be subject to copyright.)

Map of the Region. Credit: USGS
Ongoing Activity:
- Arenal, Costa Rica
- Chaitén, Southern Chile
- Dukono, Halmahera
- Galeras, Colombia
- Karymsky, Eastern Kamchat
- ka Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
- Llaima, Central Chile
- Masaya, Nicaragua
- Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island
- Rabaul, New Britain
- Santa María, Guatemala
- Semeru, Eastern Java (Indonesia)
- Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
- Soufrière Hills, Montserrat
- Turrialba, Costa Rica
- Ubinas, Perú
The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is a cooperative project between the Smithsonian’s Global Volcanism Program and the US Geological Survey’s Volcano Hazards Program.
Posted in environment, health, major volcanoes | Tagged: active volcanoes, ash plume, bagana volcano, lava flows, Papua New Guinea | Leave a Comment »