90 Percent of All Quakes Strike U.S.

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 08, 07
.

U.S. Struck by 90 Percent of All Earthquakes in 7 Days

Some 1,425 earthquakes of all magnitudes have struck the United States in the past 7 days, or about 90 percent of total globally.

7 Days, All Magnitudes Worldwide: 1,592 Earthquakes – Updated: 2014-06-30 12:02:59 UTC earthquakes in map area:  1,425 . Source: USGS/EHP

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IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast

For detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts tune into UDCCpf daily @ 06:32UTC.

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 Related Links

• U.S. West Shaking Like Jelly  June 30, 2014
• Significant Quakes Strike Tonga Trench; Aftershocks Rattle NM June 30, 2014
• Significant Quakes Strike NM, Japan Region, Visokoi Island June 29, 2014

 

M6.6 Strikes near Buldir Island, Alaska

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 08, 07
.

Strong Earthquake Occurs 52km E of Buldir Island, Alaska

Centered at 52.307°N, 176.693°E depth the quake struck at a depth of 35.0km (21.7mi), said USGS/EHP.

Event Time: 2014-06-24 03:15:41 UTC
Location: 52.307°N 176.693°E depth=35.0km (21.7mi)
Nearby Cities: 52km (32mi) E of Buldir Island, Alaska

EQ Location Map

Source: USGS/EHP

Related Links

• Powerful Quake Strikes Alaska June 24, 2014

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IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast

The next detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast will be published in the Members Bulletin tomorrow,  June 25, at 06:32 UTC.

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M6.4 Quake Strikes WNW of Sola, Vanuatu

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 08, 07
.

Strong quake occurs 85km WNW of Sola, Vanuatu

Centered at 13.577°S, 166.826°E, the quake struck at a depth of 59.9km (37.2mi), said USGS/EHP.

EQ Details

MAGNITUDE: 6.4Mw
Event Time: 2014-06-19 10:17:58 UTC

Location: 13.577°S 166.826°E depth=59.9km (37.2mi)
Nearby Cities

• 85km (53mi) WNW of Sola, Vanuatu
• 219km (136mi) N of Luganville, Vanuatu
• 878km (546mi) ESE of Honiara, Solomon Islands

 

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IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast

The next detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast will be released together with Bulletin NO. 108  on Friday,   June 20, 2014.

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M5.8 Strikes Fukushima, Japan

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 08, 07
.

A Quake Dedicated to Japan’s PM Abe Shakes Entire Eastern Honshu

Centered at 37.1N, 141.2E, the quake registered “4” on Japan’s seismic intensity scale of 7 in many parts of Fukushima, Ibaraki and Miyagi prefectures.

The criminal Japanese authorities and their low-life police force have been warned against stepping out of line!

EQ Details
Magnitude: 5.8Mw
Centered at: 37.1N, 141.2E
Depth: 50km
Time: 05:14JST, 16 Jun 2014

The quake was preceded by a magnitude 5.6 event that occurred about 2 hours earlier off the coast of Ibaraki prefecture (36.6N, 141.9E; depth=10km), reported JMA.

Source and Copyright: Japan Meteorological Agency

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for Japan

FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on Japan seismicity, California ditto.

Significant Quakes Strike Philippines, Micronesia, New Caledonia

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 07, 08
.

 EQ Details

Magnitude: 5.7Mw
Event Time: 2014-05-16 00:40:15 UTC
Location: 22.477°S 173.065°E depth=7.7km (4.8mi)
Nearby Cities:

• 104km (65mi) E of Ile Hunter, New Caledonia

Magnitude: 6.2Mw
Event Time: 2014-05-15 10:16:41 UTC
Location: 9.376°N 122.068°E depth=14.0km (8.7mi)
Nearby Cities:

• 50km (31mi) WSW of Alim, Philippines
• 52km (32mi) WSW of Asia, Philippines
• 55km (34mi) SW of Sipalay, Philippines
• 80km (50mi) W of Bayawan, Philippines
• 590km (367mi) SSE of Manila, Philippines

Magnitude: 6.6Mw
Event Time: 2014-05-15 08:16:34 UTC
Location: 6.509°N 144.899°E depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
Nearby Cities:

• 96km (60mi) SSE of Ifalik, Micronesia
• 757km (470mi) W of Weno, Micronesia
• 767km (477mi) S of Mangilao Village, Guam
• 771km (479mi) S of Tamuning-Tumon-Harmon Village, Guam
• 770km (478mi) S of Hagatna, Guam

EQ Location Map

Source: USGS/EHP

M6.8 Strikes Offshore Panama

SEISMIC HAZARD
HEIGHTENED GLOBAL SEISMICITY
SCENARIOS 07, 08
.

Strong quake occurs 105km SE of Punta de Burica, Panama

Centered at 7.249°N, 82.330°W the quake struck close to the Panama Fracture Zone at a depth of about 10.0km (6.2mi), said USGS/EHP.

The quake was followed by at least one aftershock measuring 4.4Mw , as of posting.

EQ Details

Magnitude: 6.8Mw
Event Time: 2014-05-13 06:35:24 UTC
Location: 7.249°N 82.330°W depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
Nearby Cities:

• 105km (65mi) SE of Punta de Burica, Panama
• 124km (77mi) S of Pedregal, Panama
• 128km (80mi) SSE of Puerto Armuelles, Panama
• 130km (81mi) S of David, Panama
• 354km (220mi) SSE of San Jose, Costa Rica

EQ Location Map

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP.

Tsunami Evaluation

A destructive tsunami is not expected.

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FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecast

The next detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast will be released together with Bulletin NO. 97 on May 14, 2014.

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Related Links

• M6.4 Quake Rattles SW Mexico May 9, 2014
• Latest Significant Seismicity Posted on May 2, 2014
• M7.5 Quake Strikes Near Tecpan de Galeana, Mexico April 18, 2014
• M6.9 Strikes Bouvet Island Region April 15, 2014
• M6.6 Quake Strikes Nicaragua April 12, 2014
• Strong Quakes Strike Nicaragua, Coastal Chile Posted on April 11, 2014

Powerful Earthquake Strikes Solomon Islands

SEISMIC HAZARD
.

M7.6 – 100km SSE of Kirakira, Solomon Islands

Centered at 11.315°S, 162.211°E the quake struck at a depth of about 29.3km (18.2mi), said USGS/EHP.

The powerful shock occurred along the South Solomon Trench and was the latest event in an episode of intense seismicity on or near the boundary between the Australia and Pacific plates.

The earthquake was downgraded from an initial magnitude 7.8 to 7.6Mw

The quake was followed by about a dozen significant aftershocks, as of posting.

Tsunami Evaluation

Initially, the PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER (PTWC) issued an expanding tsunami warning and watch for parts of the pacific located close to the earthquake.

In a latest bulletin, ISSUED AT 21:36UTC on 12 APR 2014, PTWC said:

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. FOR THOSE AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

Earthquake Details
Magnitude: 7.6Mw
Event Time: 20:14:39 UTC on 2014-04-12
Location:11.315°S 162.211°E depth=29.3km (18.2mi)
Nearby Cities:

• 100km (62mi) SSE of Kirakira, Solomon Islands
• 323km (201mi) SE of Honiara, Solomon Islands

Earthquake Location Maps

Source: USGS/EHP

Source: USGS/EHP

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast

A  FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast appeared in the April 12 Bulletin, which was released on April 12.

The next FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast will be issued together with the April 13 Bulletin, later today.

Related Links

• FIRE-EARTH Bulletin NO. 84 April 12, 2014
• M7.1 EQ Strikes Near Panguna, PNG April 11, 2014
• M6.5 Quake Strikes PNG April 12, 2014

CHILE MEGA EARTHQUAKE WARNING – REVISION 3

REVISED EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
MEGA EARTHQUAKE IN PERU-CHILE TRENCH
.

CHILE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST [REV. 3]

FIRE-EARTH Models show a MEGA EARTHQUAKE could strike along Peru-Chile Trench through April 30, 2014.

Some of the quake details have now been revised.

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST: Magnitude 9.4Mw could strike Peru-Chile Trench April 7 – 30, with a probability of 24%.

See below for revised details:

Forecast Earthquake Details

Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Location: 22.7°S, 70.8°W (Provisional )
Depth: 22km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 7 –  30, 2014 (Peak April 12)
Probability: 24%  (provisional)

Tsunami Forecast

Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.

Initial forecast for the Mega Quake posted HERE. REV 2 posted HERE.

CAUTION

1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries,  plagiarizing our research.

2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.

3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.

.

Previous FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile

On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details for March 17 Chile EQ

• Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
• Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
• Depth: 30km
• Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
• Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
• Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

Related Links

• MEGA EARTHQUAKE WARNING – REVISION 2  April 3, 2014
• Two Powefull Aftershocks Rock N Chile Coast April 3, 2014
• Disaster Declared for Chile Quake Zone on April 2, 2014
• M8.2 Strikes Coast of Chile April 2, 2014
• Enhanced Seismicity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench on March 24, 2014
• Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench March 22, 2014
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
• Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
• Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014

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FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan

Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.

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M8.2 Strikes Coast of Chile

SEISMIC HAZARD
LARGE EARTHQUAKE ALONG PERU-CHILE TRENCH
TSUNAMI WARNING
MASS EVACUATIONS
.

Major Earthquake Hits Northern Chile Coastal Area Triggering a Tsunami

10 Significant aftershocks have struck the quake zone including magnitudes 5.7, 6.2, 5.8, 5.7, 5.6, 5.5, 5.4, 5.3, 4.7, 5.2, 4.8, as of posting.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast for the Total Earthquake Energy associated with this Episode ≥ 0.25EJ. See Another significant aftershock… posted on March 17, 2014.

Earthquake Details [USGS/EHP]

Magnitude: 8.2Mw
Location: 19.642°S, 70.817°W
Depth: 20.1km (12.5mi)
Date/Time: 2014-04-01 at 23:46:46 UTC

Nearby Cities:

• 95km (59mi) NW of Iquique, Chile
• 139km (86mi) SSW of Arica, Chile
• 190km (118mi) SSW of Tacna, Peru
• 228km (142mi) SSE of Ilo, Peru
• 447km (278mi) SW of La Paz, Bolivia

Large earthquake strikes Chile, April 1, 2014. Source: USGS/EHP

• Tsunami waves are hitting Pisagua, Patache and Iquique, CHILE, as the  authorities evacuate coastal areas.
• Multiple landslides have blocked several highways,  hampering mass evacuations along coastal areas.
• The quake rattled buildings in Peru and Bolivian capital of La Paz, about 450km (278 miles) away.

Tsunami Warning/Watch

The first tsunami wave hit the coastal area within 45 minutes of the earthquake, said authorities. A tsunami warning has been issued for all of South and Central America’s Pacific coast.

The following bulletin was issued by the Pacific Tsunami Center.

PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0131Z 02 APR 2014

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME – 2347Z 01 APR 2014
COORDINATES – 19.8 SOUTH 70.8 WEST
DEPTH – 10 KM
LOCATION – NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CHILE
MAGNITUDE – 8.2

MEASUREMENTS OR REPORTS OF TSUNAMI WAVE ACTIVITY

GAUGE LOCATION LAT LON TIME AMPL PER
——————- —– —— —– ————— —–
MEJILLONES CL 23.1S 70.5W 0103Z 0.86M / 2.8FT 32MIN
MATARANI PE 17.0S 72.1W 0108Z 0.56M / 1.8FT 10MIN
TOCOPILLA CL 22.1S 70.2W 0109Z 0.42M / 1.4FT 10MIN
PISAGUA CL 19.6S 70.2W 0055Z 1.96M / 6.4FT 12MIN
ARICA CL 18.5S 70.3W 0021Z 0.98M / 3.2FT 36MIN
ANTOFAGASTA CL 23.7S 70.4W 0034Z 0.25M / 0.8FT 18MIN
PATACHE CL 20.8S 70.2W 0015Z 1.51M / 5.0FT 10MIN
IQUIQUE CL 20.2S 70.1W 0005Z 2.11M / 6.9FT 12MIN

LAT – LATITUDE (N-NORTH, S-SOUTH)
LON – LONGITUDE (E-EAST, W-WEST)
TIME – TIME OF THE MEASUREMENT (Z IS UTC IS GREENWICH TIME)
AMPL – TSUNAMI AMPLITUDE MEASURED RELATIVE TO NORMAL SEA LEVEL.
IT IS …NOT… CREST-TO-TROUGH WAVE HEIGHT.
VALUES ARE GIVEN IN BOTH METERS(M) AND FEET(FT).
PER – PERIOD OF TIME IN MINUTES(MIN) FROM ONE WAVE TO THE NEXT.

NOTE – DART MEASUREMENTS ARE FROM THE DEEP OCEAN AND THEY
ARE GENERALLY MUCH SMALLER THAN WOULD BE COASTAL
MEASUREMENTS AT SIMILAR LOCATIONS.

EVALUATION

SEA LEVEL READINGS INDICATE A TSUNAMI WAS GENERATED. IT MAY HAVE
BEEN DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS NEAR THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER AND
COULD ALSO BE A THREAT TO MORE DISTANT COASTS. AUTHORITIES SHOULD
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS POSSIBILITY. THIS
CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SEA LEVEL DATA TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF THE THREAT.

FOR ALL AREAS – WHEN NO MAJOR WAVES ARE OBSERVED FOR TWO HOURS
AFTER THE ESTIMATED TIME OF ARRIVAL OR DAMAGING WAVES HAVE NOT
OCCURRED FOR AT LEAST TWO HOURS THEN LOCAL AUTHORITIES CAN ASSUME
THE THREAT IS PASSED. DANGER TO BOATS AND COASTAL STRUCTURES CAN
CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO RAPID CURRENTS. AS LOCAL
CONDITIONS CAN CAUSE A WIDE VARIATION IN TSUNAMI WAVE ACTION THE
ALL CLEAR DETERMINATION MUST BE MADE BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES.

ESTIMATED INITIAL TSUNAMI WAVE ARRIVAL TIMES AT FORECAST POINTS
WITHIN THE WARNING AND WATCH AREAS ARE GIVEN BELOW. ACTUAL
ARRIVAL TIMES MAY DIFFER AND THE INITIAL WAVE MAY NOT BE THE
LARGEST. A TSUNAMI IS A SERIES OF WAVES AND THE TIME BETWEEN
SUCCESSIVE WAVES CAN BE FIVE MINUTES TO ONE HOUR.

LOCATION FORECAST POINT COORDINATES ARRIVAL TIME
——————————– ———— ————
CHILE IQUIQUE 20.2S 289.9E 0002Z 02 APR
ARICA 18.5S 289.7E 0011Z 02 APR
ANTOFAGASTA 23.3S 289.6E 0017Z 02 APR
CALDERA 27.1S 289.2E 0046Z 02 APR
COQUIMBO 29.9S 288.6E 0111Z 02 APR
VALPARAISO 33.0S 288.4E 0135Z 02 APR
TALCAHUANO 36.7S 286.9E 0219Z 02 APR
CORRAL 39.8S 286.5E 0251Z 02 APR
GOLFO_DE_PENAS 47.1S 285.1E 0403Z 02 APR
EASTER_ISLAND 27.1S 250.6E 0532Z 02 APR
PUERTO_MONTT 41.5S 287.0E 0546Z 02 APR
PERU MOLLENDO 17.1S 288.0E 0021Z 02 APR
SAN_JUAN 15.3S 284.8E 0039Z 02 APR
LA_PUNTA 12.1S 282.8E 0131Z 02 APR
TALARA 4.6S 278.5E 0218Z 02 APR
CHIMBOTE 9.0S 281.2E 0225Z 02 APR
PIMENTAL 6.9S 280.0E 0250Z 02 APR
ECUADOR LA_LIBERTAD 2.2S 278.8E 0239Z 02 APR
ESMERELDAS 1.2N 280.2E 0327Z 02 APR
BALTRA_ISLAND 0.5S 269.7E 0429Z 02 APR
COLOMBIA TUMACO 1.8N 281.1E 0346Z 02 APR
BAHIA_SOLANO 6.3N 282.6E 0417Z 02 APR
BUENAVENTURA 3.8N 282.8E 0433Z 02 APR
PANAMA PUERTO_PINA 7.4N 282.0E 0427Z 02 APR
PUNTA_MALA 7.5N 280.0E 0429Z 02 APR
PUNTA_BURICA 8.0N 277.1E 0441Z 02 APR
BALBOA_HEIGHTS 9.0N 280.4E 0645Z 02 APR
COSTA RICA CABO_MATAPALO 8.4N 276.7E 0441Z 02 APR
PUERTO_QUEPOS 9.4N 275.8E 0514Z 02 APR
CABO_SAN_ELENA 10.9N 274.0E 0531Z 02 APR
NICARAGUA SAN_JUAN_DL_SUR 11.2N 274.1E 0557Z 02 APR
PUERTO_SANDINO 12.2N 273.2E 0609Z 02 APR
CORINTO 12.5N 272.8E 0609Z 02 APR
EL SALVADOR ACAJUTLA 13.6N 270.2E 0628Z 02 APR
GUATEMALA SIPICATE 13.9N 268.8E 0642Z 02 APR
MEXICO PUERTO_MADERO 14.8N 267.5E 0649Z 02 APR
ACAPULCO 16.9N 260.1E 0711Z 02 APR
SALINA_CRUZ 16.5N 264.8E 0713Z 02 APR
HONDURAS AMAPALA 13.2N 272.4E 0655Z 02 APR

BULLETINS WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
THE TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA…BRITISH COLUMBIA…WASHINGTON…OREGON…CALIFORNIA.

See also:

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile (March 17, 2014) and the update posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile.

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details

• Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
• Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
• Depth: 30km
• Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
• Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
• Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

Related Links

• Enhanced Seismicity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench on March 24, 2014
• Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench March 22, 2014
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
• Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
• Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014

Tectonics Update – January 28

Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.

Forecast Details

• Magnitude: Up to 8.3Mw
  
• Position: 50km radius of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
• Probability of Occurrence
  • Feb – May 2012: 74% (Peak Occurrence: April 18, am JST)
  • Jun –  Nov 2012: 68%
  • Dec 2012 – Dec 2015 : ~ 50%
  • Jan – Apr 2016: >70%
• Probability of Event occurring onshore: 60%

[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region.   For UPDATES see comments section below.]

Previous Forecasts

• TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING Posted on March 16, 2011
• Fire-Earth Quake Forecast: Japan Earthquakes
• MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU
• Tectonics Update – March 10
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan Posted on June 13, 2010
• M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan Posted on July 5, 2010
• Honshu Earthquake Warning Posted  on November 10, 2010

Related Links

• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Global Tectonics Alert – April 9

JPTRMT1

This is an amendment to an earlier release dated April 8, 2011

Japan Earthquake Forecast

FIRE-EARTH estimates that about 80 exajoules (EJ) of tectonic stress energy could be accumulated in Japan Region between now and early 2016.

Most of the energy is forecast to be released as large earthquakes including a massive shock, a Megathrust earthquake, the largest on record, measuring 10.0+Mw releasing about 64EJ of energy.

[NOTE: The 1960 Valdivia earthquake (The Great Chilean Earthquake) is the largest ever earthquake recorded measuring 9.5Mw. The quake struck on May 22, 1960 at 38.29ºS, 73.0ºW. Seismic moment release: ~ 11.3 EJ]

Japan Trench Mega Thrust Earthquake No. 1 (JPTRMT1)  could break up the Honshu island into some half dozen fragments and scores of smaller splinters. [An impression depicting the new geography of the islands may be posted later.]

The Megashock could trigger a colossal tsunami completely submerging coastal areas around the Pacific Ocean, and traveling many miles inland.

JPTRMT1 could trigger multiple volcanic eruptions throughout Japan Region and rest of the western half of the PRF, as far away as in Alaska, the Philippines, Indonesia, PNG, Fiji, Tonga, New Zealand and rest of the South Pacific region. [Groups J, H, K and L on the map below.

The 10.0+Mw Megashock, its massive aftershocks, the spawned mountainous tsunamis and the multiple volcanic eruptions would cause  death and destruction on unprecedented scales throughout the Pacific Rim countries and beyond.

The impact of the volcanic eruptions would affect the entire world, resulting in severe climatic episodes, major losses of crops, famine and exacerbate mass dieoffs, which may have already started as a result of drought and deluge and other collapse mechanisms.

Map of Volcanoes. Background Map: University of Michigan. Designed and enhanced by Fire Earth Blog. Click image to enlarge.

Forecast Details

• Name Assigned by FIRE-EARTH: Japan Trench Mega Thrust Earthquake No. 1 (JPTRMT1)
• Location: Near the East Coast of Honshu, Japan
• Depth: ~ 26km
• Magnitude: 10.0+Mw
• Energy released: ~ 64EJ
• Largest Aftershocks:  ~ 9.0 Mw
• JPTRMT1 and its Massive aftershocks would trigger dozens of colossal super tsunamis.
• The unprecedented super seismic episode could trigger between 40 and 80 volcanoes to erupt simultaneously, shortly after the mainshock strikes.
• Millions of people could perish within the first few hours, and hundreds of millions more left without clean water, food, or shelter, as a result of the events.

Alaska Update [15:00UTC]

FIRE-EARTH Model shows continued buildup of tectonic stress energy near the coast of Alaska.

See: Alaska Earthquake Forecast: Update 3

Last updated: 11:24 UTC April 19, 2010

Global Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Related Links:

• Global Tectonics Alert

• Probability of a nuclear disaster striking near you
• M7.4 Quake Strikes Near E Coast of Honshu
• Japan Earthquakes, Disasters: Recent History and FIRE-EARTH Forecasts

New Wave of Powerful Quakes Jolts the Planet

At Least 3 Powerful Earthquakes Strike Mindanao, Philippines

The Largest Quake in the Cluster Measured up  to 7.9M. The quakes struck at a depth of about 600km and did not cause a destructive tsunami.

About a dozen strong aftershocks, the largest of which  measured up to 6.0Mw  followed the mainshock.  

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW.

The following details were reported by USGS/EHP

• Magnitude: 7.6
• Date-Time:
  • Friday, July 23, 2010 at 22:51:11 UTC
  • Saturday, July 24, 2010 at 06:51:11 AM at epicenter
• Location: 6.494°N, 123.533°E
• Depth: 576.3 km (358.1 miles)
• Region:  MORO GULF, MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES
• Distances:
  • 114 km (71 miles) SW (224°) from Cotabato, Mindanao, Philippines
  • 149 km (93 miles) S (179°) from Pagadian, Mindanao, Philippines
  • 167 km (104 miles) ESE (106°) from Zamboanga, Mindanao, Philippines
  • 946 km (588 miles) SSE (162°) from MANILA, Philippines
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 4.8 km (3.0 miles); depth +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles)
• Source and ID:  USGS NEIC (WDCS-D);  us2010zbca

The other quakes occurred close to the epicenter of the above event and measured up to 7.6 and 7.7 Mw [7.3 and 7.4MW, according to USGS.] The quakes struck at an average depth of about 600km.

Fire-Earth Quake Forecasts and previous events:

• Strong Earthquake Strikes Nr Pandan Philippines
• Strong Earthquake Strikes Mindanao, Philippines
• Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 5.5 + (see entry for FEWW Forecast).

Related Links:

• Global Earthquakes Tempi Rising
• 3 Waves of Significant Quakes Strike Our Planet

• Strong Earthquake Jolts SoCal – July 7
• M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan

• Strong Earthquake Strikes Oaxaca, Mexico
• Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan

More Links:

• FEWW Volcano Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Earthquake Links

Japan Region Earthquake Warning

Large Earthquake Could Strike Japan Region

Fire-Earth forecasts a large earthquake in the Japan Region.

Related Links:

• Earthquakes [Links Page]

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Serial No 1,661. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by Google/the authorities in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).