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Archive for February 14th, 2014

UK Floods Intensify

Posted by feww on February 14, 2014


22 Severe Flood Warnings issued, as UK rivers continue flooding

There are now 22 Severe Flood Warnings [“danger to life”] in effect throughout three UK regions—the Midlands [1,] Southeast [15] and Southwest[6.]

Additionally, 179 Flood Warnings [“Flooding is expected. Immediate action required”] and 288 Flood Alerts [“Flooding is possible. Be prepared”] are in effect throughout the UK, as of posting.

uk flood warning areas
22  Severe Flood Warnings [“danger to life”] and hundreds of Flood Warnings and Flood Alerts are in effect throughout the UK, as of posting. Official records released for last month show UK experienced its wettest January in quarter of a millennium.

Massive Storm Envelopes Ireland and the UK

uk IR-rainfall sat image
IR satellite and radar rain map composite. Satellite data: © Copyright EUMETSAT/Met Office

Severe Flood Warning in the Midlands

In the Midlands River Severn at Alney Island, Gloucester, threatens to overflow, and a Severe Flood Warning has been issued due to the potential flooding of houses and static homes from the overtopping of flood defenses , according to the UK Environment Agency [UKEA.]

15 Severe Flood Warnings issued for the Southeast

Location: Coast at Lymington and Keyhaven including Pitts Deep and Sowley

The wind is Force 10 South westerly. This warning is being issued as a precautionary measure. Forecast tide levels are significant and will be very close to the top of the sea wall which protects most of Lymington and Keyhaven.

River Thames

River Thames is flooding at multiple locations including the Chertsey area and Widespread property flooding and disruption to local infrastructure will continue, said UKEA.

River Thames levels are expected to rise in at least 14 other areas including the Shepperton Green area, Hamm Court,  Laleham and Penton Hook, Staines and Egham, Thorpe Lea, Runnymede Pleasure Grounds, Horton and Kingsmead Quarry, Wraysbury village, Old Windsor, Friday Island, Magna Carta Island and  Datchet village.

Severe Flood Warnings in the Southwest

Six Severe Flood Warnings are in effect in the Southwest as of posting including

  • Chiswell
    • The forecast wind direction are south easterly through to south westerly overnight. The forecast wind strengths are Force 7 increasing to Force 9 overnight Follow the instructions in leaflets now being dropped at all properties at risk. Do not wait for the siren to sound if you intend to relocate from your property
  • South Devon Coast from Start Point to Dawlish Warren
  • South Devon Coast from Exmouth to Lyme Regis
    • The forecast surge height is 0.99m. The forecast wind direction is SSW. The forecast wind strength is Force 8. Times of high tide will vary along the coast. Conditions will usually apply 2-4 hours either side of high tide. Large waves are forecast to build from a southerly direction. Wave heights could be 3 to 5.5m. This is likely to lead to significant spray overtopping and the potential for further damage to sea walls.
  • South Cornwall Coast Flood Warning Area
    • A Severe Flood Warning is in force for Friday evenings tide and a Flood Warning is in force for Saturday morning. Strong winds, tidal surge and large waves may cause flooding at exposed locations. Locations with damage to defences, buildings and structures, will be especially vulnerable. These locations include: Penzance, Newlyn Green, Marazion, Longrock, Porthleven, St Mawes, Pentewan, Looe, Seaton, Kingsand, Cawsand and Plymouth. High tide on Friday is between 16:40 and 18:00. The forecast surge height is over 1m, with Force 9 South South Westerly wind, and waves up to 6m. High tide on Saturday is between 05:00 and 06:00. The forecast surge height is 360mm, with Force 8 South Westerly wind, and waves up to 6m. Conditions in exposed locations will be dangerous …
  • Salt Moor and North Moor including Moorland
    • Water is continuing to spill from Currymoor into Saltmoor and Northmoor via Athelney spillway and the old Lyng railway cutting. This poses a significant ongoing risk to local properties. The drain level at Northmoor pumping station is 6.01 m and is stable. We are pumping at Northmoor and Saltmoor pumping stations. Additional pumps are now running. The River Tone at Currymoor is currently stable but is expected to rise in response to the forecast rainfall.
  • A361 East Lyng to Burrowbridge
    • Water is continuing to spill into Currymoor from the River Tone. Consequently large volumes of water are flowing into Saltmoor and Northmoor via Athelney spillway and the old Lyng railway cutting. Floodwater on the A361 is very deep.


In November 2009,  EDRO/FIRE-EARTH Models showed climate change could directly affect about half the UK population within 3 to 5  years. Our Forecast and most of the links posted below have since been filtered, censored, blocked or buried by Google, WordPress and others.

Related Links

What you should know by now

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Mass Evacuations in Indonesia as Mt Kelud Erupts

Posted by feww on February 14, 2014


Volcano alert urged 200,000 people to evacuate before eruption

Ash and other volcanic matter ejected by the 1,730-meter Mt Kelud has covered a vast area, including the major city of Surabaya, more than 130km (80 miles) away.

During its most violent eruption on Thursday night, the volcano ejected ash and volcanic gases to a hight of 17km above the summit crater, according to officials.

Surabaya, Indonesia’s second-largest city with a population of more than 3.5 million (6 million in the metropolitan area), is the capital of East Java province.

The major eruption, which ejected ash in all directions as far as 250-km away, forced the closure of three international airports in Surabaya, Solo and Yogyakarta.

mt kelud java - photo mia puspitasari
Mt Kelud erupts in East Java, Indonesia. Image credit:

Kelud eruption 2014 ash raining in YogyakartaVolcanic ash raining on the city of Yogyakarta (metro Population 2.4 million), Java after Mt Kelud eruption.  Image Credit:Aldnonymous

Officials had urged about 200,000 people in 36 villages within the 10-km radius of the crater to evacuate 90 minutes before the eruption, according to reports.

There are UNCONFIRMED reports of multiple deaths within the evacuation zone.

A Thick Blanket of Volcanic Ash 

“The current conditions are that volcanic ash is now covering the runway, apron and tarmac. We have already measured the thickness of the volcanic ash, which is at  on the runway and tarmac,” said a senior official at the Yogyakarta airport.

Mt Kelud (Kelut) is located in East Java, Indonesia.
Kelud is one of Indonesia’s 130  active volcanoes.  The volcano last erupted in 1990, killing at least 40 people. A powerful explosion in 1919 left more than  5,000 dead.

Indonesian Volcanoes

Indonesian Volcanoes have been responsible for a number of cataclysmic explosions in modern history.

Krakatoa [Krakatau] Cataclysmic Eruption 1883

ashcroft -riv thames
William Ashcroft painting “On the Banks of the River Thames” in London, November 26, 1883 [Exactly three months after Krakatoa’s cataclysmic 1883 eruption.]

The Krakatoa eruption affected the climate driving the weather patterns wild for the next 5 years. Average global temperatures fell by about 1.2 °C in the following years, returning to normal only in 1888.

The eruption ejected about 21 cubic kilometers of volcanic matter and destroyed two-thirds of the Krakatoa island. The explosion also spawned giant tsunamis killing an estimated 40,000 people.

An 1888 lithograph of the 1883 violent explosion of Krakatau.

Based on their models, our colleagues at EDRO forecast that the collapse of Singapore may occur as a result of volcanic activity on the island of Sumatra. However, they have not disclosed any further detail.

Mt Sinabung

Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra province has been erupting since November 2013 forcing the evacuation of more than 30,000 people. During an unexpected eruption earlier this month at least 16 people were killed.

Related Links

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States of Emergency Declared for NY & CT

Posted by feww on February 14, 2014


Major Storm Continues to Pound U.S. Northeast

States of emergency have now been declared for 12 states in the south, southeast and northeast since the weekend, as a deadly storm continues to track up U.S. Northeast.

New York: Gov. Cuomo declared a state of emergency Thursday, his  fifth so far this year, as the deadly snowstorm impacted much of New York and the East Coast.

Cuomo’s  declaration is for Clinton, Essex, Franklin and St. Lawrence counties and covers the mid-to-lower Hudson Valley, New York City and Long Island, as well as the North Country, central New York and the Capital Region.

“The roads are dangerous,” declared Cuomo!

Connecticut: Gov. Malloy declared a State of Emergency in Vermont as the storm dumped up to 12 inches of snow on parts of the states, straining Vermont’s reserves of road salt.

Additional snow was forecast to fall early morning Friday, keeping schools closed.

120 Million of People Affected

The massive storm system has affected an estimated 120 millions people in 22 states from Texas to Maine, leaving at least 14 people dead and many injured, as of posting.

Winter Storm Warnings, Watches and Advisories were in effect from Georgia to Maine, Tuesday through Friday. Forecasters have warned the powerful system could dump up to 18 inches (46 cm) of snow over the Atlantic Coast through Saturday.

Latest Weather Forecast by NWS

Winter Storm Moving through the Northeast

The same storm that brought heavy snow and significant ice accumulations to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic has moved up the East Coast, bringing significant winter weather to the Northeast. Heavy snow and gusty winds are expected in parts of the Appalachians and New England into Friday. Conditions will begin to improve as the storm pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes by Friday afternoon.

us weather hazards map 14feb14U.S. Weather Hazards Map (Hazmap)  for Thursday, February 14, 2014. Issued at 3:32UTC. Source: NWS. UPDATE

States of Emergency Declared for 12  States

Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New Jersey, Tennessee, New York and Connecticut have now declared States of Emergency due to the massive storm.

“This is not the storm we had two weeks ago, where we were playing in the snow and building snowmen. This is an ice storm,” said Gov Haley, as she declared a State of Emergency for South Carolina.

Flight Cancellations and Delays

More than 12,000 flights into, within, or from the United States have been canceled and thousands more delayed Tuesday through early Friday. The trend is expected to continue through weekend.

Federal Emergency Disaster Declared for the State of Georgia

The White House has declared a federal emergency in the State of Georgia resulting from a severe winter storm beginning on February 10, 2014, and continuing.

The emergency disaster declaration will provide federal disaster relief to “lessen or avert the threat of a catastrophe” in the counties of Banks, Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattooga, Cherokee, Clarke, Cobb, Dade, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Elbert, Fannin, Floyd, Forsyth, Franklin, Fulton, Gilmer, Gordon, Gwinnett, Habersham, Hall, Haralson, Hart, Jackson, Lincoln, Lumpkin, Madison, Murray, Oconee, Oglethorpe, Paulding, Pickens, Polk, Rabun, Stephens, Towns, Union, Walker, Walton, White, Whitfield, and Wilkes.

White House Issues Federal Emergency Disaster Declaration for South Carolina

The White House has declared a  Federal Emergency Disaster in the State of South Carolina resulting from a severe ice and snowstorm beginning on February 10, 2014, and continuing.

Energy Emergency

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) extended on Wednesday the regional States of Emergency Declarations, Waivers, Exemptions & Permits for transporting propane throughout the United States.

A total of at least 36 states and District of Columbia are currently impacted by shortages of propane and other heating fuels.

States covered by the emergency declarations include:

  • Western Service Center: North Dakota and South Dakota
  • Southern Service Center: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Tennessee
  • Eastern Service Center: Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and West Virginia
  • Midwestern Service Center: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio and Wisconsin

Colorado Gov Issued Emergency Declaration to Authorize Temporary Exception to Hours of Service Regulations for CMVs Used for Propane Transport on February 7, 2014.

Texas Gov Renews Proclamation Declaring Liquefied Petroleum Gas Emergency [Feb. 4, 2014.]

Connecticut Provides Emergency Exemption from Hours of Service of Drivers [Feb. 11, 2014.]

S. Carolina Gov Issues Emergency Declaration for Severe Winter Weather Impact [Feb. 11, 2014.]

S. Carolina Gov Issues Executive Order to Waive Truck Restrictions  [Feb. 11, 2014.]

N.  Carolina Governor Temporarily Suspends Motor Vehicle Regulations … [Feb. 11, 2014.]

Related Links

Energy Emergency Links

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Crop Disaster Declared in 3 States

Posted by feww on February 14, 2014


Crop Disaster Declared for 33 Counties in Three States

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has declared 33 counties in three states as crop disaster areas, in three separate designations, due to the recent drought.

The disaster designations are for the states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico.

  • Texas:  Andrews, Gaines, Winkler, Cochran, Loving, Yoakum, Donley, Lipscomb,  Roberts, Armstrong, Collingsworth, Hansford, Ochiltree, Briscoe, Gray, Hemphill, Wheeler, Carson, Hall and Hutchinson counties.
  • Oklahoma: Beaver, Ellis, Dewey, Blaine, Ellis, Roger, Mills, Custer, Major and Woodward counties.
  • New Mexico: Lea, Chaves, Eddy and Roosevelt counties.

1. USDA trigger point for a countywide disaster declaration is 30 percent crop loss on at least one crop.

2. The total number of counties designated as agricultural disaster areas includes both primary and contiguous disaster areas.

3. A number of counties have been designated crop disaster areas more than once due to multiple disasters.

4. The U.S. has a total of 3,143 counties and county-equivalents.

5. The disaster designations were approved by USDA on February 12, 2014.

2014 Federal and Agriculture Disaster Declarations

Related Links

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